Leith Green Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 28 minutes ago, JS_FFC said: Ian Murray holds his seat of course they’ll be weighing his majority Thats because he sooks up to the auld tory wifies in Morningside who "hold their noses" to vote for the p***k because they "couldnt possibly vote for Independence". He actually sets up a stall in the Waitrose up there to chat to these people - who are about as far from "Labour" voters as you could get. Sickens me tbqhwy, I think he is a w**k. (and, yes he is my MP) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salvo Montalbano Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 8 minutes ago, JS_FFC said: Again, the article is dated 24/5/2023, exactly a year ago today. The information in it was relevant as at that date. Ah, sorry thought it was 24/5/24. Plenty of stuff has happened since then though, so not sure how relevant it is today. Israel/Gaza, for one but also Kier Starmer flip flopping on several policy announcements and the likes of Dugdale saying that they'd end free prescriptions, free tuition etc isn't going to help their case in Scotland. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forest_Fifer Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 There are going to be so many ex Tory MPs in 2 months, GBNews will need to start a GBN2 channel just to have space for them to all have their own shows. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 1 hour ago, Forest_Fifer said: There are going to be so many ex Tory MPs in 2 months, GBNews will need to start a GBN2 channel just to have space for them to all have their own shows. If they all start watching GBNews it will double the audience. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 4 hours ago, Lex said: Salmond famously got the Tory boot out of Gordon and his Deputy Angus Robertson got the Tory boot out of Moray on the same night. No im pretty sure Kirsten Hair was elected in Angus? oh wait did you mean another tory boot? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 9 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said: No im pretty sure Kirsten Hair was elected in Angus? oh wait did you mean another tory boot? It was Douglas Ross that Angus Robertson lost to in 2017. Alex Salmond lost to Colin Clark. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Hair beat Mike Weir. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 5 hours ago, Leith Green said: Thats because he sooks up to the auld tory wifies in Morningside who "hold their noses" to vote for the p***k because they "couldnt possibly vote for Independence". He actually sets up a stall in the Waitrose up there to chat to these people - who are about as far from "Labour" voters as you could get. Sickens me tbqhwy, I think he is a w**k. (and, yes he is my MP) He benefits from non-Scots Edinburgh Uni students who vote in his constituency, consider themselves typically studenty lefty, but would vote for a Labour Party led by Oswald Mosley before they'd ever vote SNP. Similar number of well-heeled students who will vote Lib Dem and maintain that's a "lefty" option. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leith Green Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 4 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said: He benefits from non-Scots Edinburgh Uni students who vote in his constituency, consider themselves typically studenty lefty, but would vote for a Labour Party led by Oswald Mosley before they'd ever vote SNP. Similar number of well-heeled students who will vote Lib Dem and maintain that's a "lefty" option. I doubt that the English students in Marchmont are bothering voting in Edin South. If they vote at all, it will be in mummy and daddys constituency, yah ? In all seriousness, my son is a first year at Glasgow - and I doubt if him or any of his friends are even going to bother. Apathy seems fairly common among students these days. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 (edited) 7 hours ago, JS_FFC said: Again, the article is dated 24/5/2023, exactly a year ago today. The information in it was relevant as at that date. Wrong link by me. There's a more up to date poll than the May 13-17 one. Edited May 24 by DeeTillEhDeh 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leith Green Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Its looking increasingly likely that the SNP are going to get a foot up the erse from voters in the GE, and that will give Labour far more seats than they have at the moment. Not sure it will be quite as many as Starmer thinks, but that is not important - he will get enough in England and Wales to get a huge majority without us. What really worries me is that Starmer doesnt understand that a decent chunk (last poll I saw was 40%) of Labour voters actually support Independence. I suspect that he will get in by a landslide, people in Scotland will give Labour a decent number of seats, and use that as a mandate to attempt to water down devolved powers up here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 44 minutes ago, Leith Green said: Its looking increasingly likely that the SNP are going to get a foot up the erse from voters in the GE, and that will give Labour far more seats than they have at the moment. Not sure it will be quite as many as Starmer thinks, but that is not important - he will get enough in England and Wales to get a huge majority without us. What really worries me is that Starmer doesnt understand that a decent chunk (last poll I saw was 40%) of Labour voters actually support Independence. I suspect that he will get in by a landslide, people in Scotland will give Labour a decent number of seats, and use that as a mandate to attempt to water down devolved powers up here. He might, and SLab will probably be in his ear trying to persuade him to do so, but I'm not sure he gives enough of a shit about them or Scotland in general to bother his arse. He's going to have plenty of fires to be fighting in the homeland without bothering too much about us, and (considering seats in Scotland could have more importance in five years' time) his best strategy might be masterly inactivity to avoid scaring the natives. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Think the Lib Dems will do far better than my initial prediction. I underestimated how many seats there are in England where they don't even need to increase their own share of the vote and can just win because the Tories have gone so far backwards. Also underestimated how poorly the SNP are polling just now. Labour - 348 (Overall majority of 46) Tories - 207 Lib Dems - 47 SNP - 21 Northern Irish Parties - 18 Plaid - 4 Greens - 2 Others - 3 (Corbyn, Galloway and the speaker) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Surely to f**k Galloway's not going to hold Rochdale. I appreciate there will be much funnier results on the night, but Gorgeous George being back on the broo within six months would be the cherry on the cake. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 8 minutes ago, BFTD said: Surely to f**k Galloway's not going to hold Rochdale. I appreciate there will be much funnier results on the night, but Gorgeous George being back on the broo within six months would be the cherry on the cake. Think I read that they did well in the local elections recently because the Workers Party are hoovering up votes in certain local communities in that part of the world. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MEADOWXI Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 (edited) Think the Sunak ship is not so much sinking as sunk. Can see them being absolutely battered in England Labour 347 Tory 198 (they will fall below 200MPs) Lib Dem 48 SNP 31 Nth Ireland - 18 - pass on breaking that down Plaid 4 Green 1 The Corbyn Abbott Alliance 2 (think Diane will tell Keir to get stuffed and stand as an Independent on platform with Corbyn). Speaker 1 And Galloway to get the boot in the pie he duly deserves. Edited May 30 by MEADOWXI 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 I did a prediction on the FT's election model Overall result from my prediction Labour - 410 seats (40%) Conservatives - 165 seats (25%) Liberal Democrats - 34 seats (12%) SNP - 19 seats (31%) Plaid Cymru - 2 seats (15%) Greens - 1 seat (7%) Labour majority of 172. Link to the FT Predictor here - https://ig.ft.com/uk-general-election/2024/projection/?constituency=E14001172 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 I think I probably put the SNP too low and the Lib Dems too high. Will revisit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 28 minutes ago, MEADOWXI said: Think the Sunak ship is not so much sinking as sunk. Can see them being absolutely battered in England Labour 347 Tory 198 (they will fall below 200MPs) Lib Dem 48 SNP 31 Nth Ireland - 18 - pass on breaking that down Plaid 4 Green 1 The Corbyn Abbott Alliance 2 (think Diane will tell Keir to get stuffed and stand as an Independent on platform with Corbyn). Speaker 1 And Galloway to get the boot in the pie he duly deserves. I’ll be astounded if the Lib Dems get 48 seats*. If they do they will be intolerable. * that statement could, of course, come back to bite me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 12 minutes ago, ICTChris said: I think I probably put the SNP too low and the Lib Dems too high. Will revisit. Labour shooting themselves in the foot today may turn out to be harmful if the fuss about it drags on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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