KD1711 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 No I won't bolt you bolt. I'm not scared to win. lolol you're definitely scared to gamble mate, haven't posted much in here because I am pratted but your singles make me smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishBhoy Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You say good advice, but I don't really see many successful betters in this forum. Most people seem to lose more often. From my reading experience anyway. Mr William Hill and Co. will be rubbing their hands every time you walk into a bookies. 'Uhhh, av pikd out good taems from da paper and a realy fancy them, havant bovvered to look into any research. If a put 5-8 of the taems on evry week in a 6 pence accumulator al be rich' Your an idiot Akpo, and I sincerely hope you are not over the age of 18. People have tried to give you reasonable advice on this thread but it seems to have went right over your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo Stu Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Posting on here seems to jinx my bets Off we go again: £20 on Torquay to beat Barnet tonight @ 10/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Out of ten 40/1 accumulators, although the odds suggest otherwise, I reckon I should be winning 1 out of every 10, if research was done and I really fancied the teams. But what I'm saying is that I WON'T lose shitloads, these are small stakes that wont hurt as much as spunking tenners on losing singles. Yes they build up, but the occasional accy win will cover that. I don't understand how people can lose so much by just doing accumulators, as long as you keep it sensible and not be tempted to go big to win your money back (something I'm admittedly guilty of doing, hence being left £50 down!) so I don't believe singles are the way to win money. Thats all very good,but are you in the completely wrong thread,please keep your bets to the weekday/weekend threads,because your bets have nothing to do with this thread Good luck to all those trying this,ill be joining in but im waiting on the weather to see which games are off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the jambo-rocker Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Out of ten 40/1 accumulators, although the odds suggest otherwise, I reckon I should be winning 1 out of every 10, if research was done and I really fancied the teams. But what I'm saying is that I WON'T lose shitloads, these are small stakes that wont hurt as much as spunking tenners on losing singles. Yes they build up, but the occasional accy win will cover that. I don't understand how people can lose so much by just doing accumulators, as long as you keep it sensible and not be tempted to go big to win your money back (something I'm admittedly guilty of doing, hence being left £50 down!) so I don't believe singles are the way to win money. Allow me to put this into a better context that you might understand about why 5/8 team accumulators will fail a lot more often than the odds suggest. Please try to understand what I'm saying as I'll only explain this once This weeks PaddyPower's odds for this premier league fixtures 6/4 Chelsea 23/10 Man City 9/5 Now these odds(for the pedants) are calculated via a percentage. Now you would think that all these percentages would add up to 100% wouldn't you. Well, not quite. Take the Chelsea game for example, - To calculate the percentages for an outcome: divide the under number (denominator) by the sum of the over (numerator) and under (denominator) numbers. Heres the formula: (under/(over + under)) * 100 = outcome percentage In the example above: Chelsea - (4 / (6 + 4)) * 100 = 40 (40%) Draw - (10 / (23 + 10)) * 100 = 30.3 (30.3%) Man City - (5 / (9 + 5)) * 100 = 80 (35.7%) 106% The percentages are what paddy power deem the chances of this result coming out. However, they do it over the 100% to ensure that dependant porportionally on the amount of bets put on, PP will stand to win money regardless. If the calculated odds put together were below 100%, the average punter could bet proportionally on all outcomes and still make money. This is why you will see something like Chelsea DNB 4/6 = 60% chance of it happening Man City DNB 11/10 = 47.6% chance of it happening. 107.6% Because if someone was to both these bets on a the same stake. PP would win money regardless. Now for the important part. Now this is just PP on it's own. However, you can shop around for better prices between bookies and at best with them all together you will find 101%, 100% if you're lucky. But when it comes to an accumulator, if you put on the said amount of teams with an average percentage of 106%, you're odds of it coming up increase with every bet you make as you can see below. Single = 106% against you Double = 106% x 106% = 112.36% against you Treble = 106 x 106 x 106 = 119.10% against you 4 way = 106 x 106 x 106 x 106 = 126.25% against 5 way = 106 x 106 x 106 x 106 x 106 = 133.82% against you 6 way = 106 x 106 x 106 106 x 106 x 106 = 142.85% against you 7 way = 106 x 106 x 106 106 x 106 x 106 x 106 = 150.36% 8 way = 106 x 106 x 106 106 x 106 x 106 106 x 106 = 159.38 against you. As you can see, if you put 5 teams on an accumulator, you've given PP a 33% better chance of winning money against you and 8 teams an almost 60%! Fair enough the risks will be greater with more money, but you be wiser with you're bets. Find something you know well, bet singles and no further than a double and you'll win a lot more than you lose. This is why statistically and mathematically speaking, 5-8 team accumulators are fucking ludicrous if you expect them to win more than once a year. If you do, it is by pure and utter luck. With singles you give them no more than 6% in this case and possibly lower if you shop around. You need be patient, but it comes after a while. Hopefully this will makes things clearer to you. Single bets are the way to go. They're the reason I've went from almost minus treble figures to positive double figures in the last couple of months for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Widge Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Matty avoid saints at all cost it could go every way, don't take a risk on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Thanks for that good advice jambo i will follow it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the jambo-rocker Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Thanks for that good advice jambo i will follow it Your welcome mate. You'll get there eventually. I'm not saying put on huge stakes right away either. You'll most definitely win more than you'll lose if you find maybe one bet or two a week rather than three over one day all the time. Also, don't try to chase your losses like I did last weekend. It was a sore one! Having as much patience and discipline as possible is the best advice I can give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choirbairn Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I've had money in an online account that I haven't used for ages which is just ripe for this. Still going strong with my initial attempt after two successful bets, but don't want to risk the £41 on a double. I had £60 in the account to start with, so six £10 attempts. Starting the second one tonight with a double on Paderborn and Braga. Two teams who are good at home against two teams who struggle home and away, yet the double pays around 2.15. Still looking at tomorrow and Sunday for a £41 single. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fraser Fyvie Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Your welcome mate. You'll get there eventually. I'm not saying put on huge stakes right away either. You'll most definitely win more than you'll lose if you find maybe one bet or two a week rather than three over one day all the time. Also, don't try to chase your losses like I did last weekend. It was a sore one! Having as much patience and discipline as possible is the best advice I can give. I'll have a look next weekend and maybe choose a couple of £5 singles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Aberdeen to beat st mirren 11/10 £20 for £42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itzdrk Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 torquay tonight guys also this may help, the guy is very good to be honest and hes no one of the guys that charges ye for tips http://btbfootballtipster.blogspot.com/2011/12/friday-tips-and-predictions_08.html?spref=fb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordo1872 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 If you win one 5-8 team accy and lose 9 in a row, you'll probably still be in the money (depending on the odds). With singles, you're losing a decent amount of money whenever you lose. Of course it's more likely to come up than a accy, but there's no harm putting 5-8 temas that look good value into an accy, is there? If I ever write a book on gambling I will explin, on the very first page, why this simply isn't the case. Jambo explains it very well above but the truth is that people don't think logically and with mathematical reasioning when it comes to gambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayster Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I am actually ignoring my last post and going to keep it going tonight Bet 3 AEK ATHENS (5/6) v Sturm Graz £20.94 Might return - £38.39 This was the one that let me down last time on Bet number 3, when I went against my own advice and bet on the uefa cup. Having another stab at this tomorrow. Considered a few including Killie and Dundee Utd who are both generous odds away from home, however I just couldnt bring myself to be on the SPL due to the number of bore draws you get. Read up on a few of the other games I was interested in and have decided to go for Alloa. Apparently won convincing when they last met Queens Park at Hampden and have no injury worries. Also have a few SPL youngsters in on loan. If they played so well at hampden then they will get a similair surface to play on at home (i.e flat and nice for knocking the ball about on) BET 1 ALLOA (11/10) v Queens Park £10 - Might Return £21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aufc Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 What about if I do some research and pick out 5-8 bets I fancy, and accumulator them instead of just choosing bets that look good on paper. They must be more likely to come up? And accumulators appeal to me more, they are more fun instead of shiting myself on one big one. If you win one 5-8 team accy and lose 9 in a row, you'll probably still be in the money (depending on the odds). With singles, you're losing a decent amount of money whenever you lose. Of course it's more likely to come up than a accy, but there's no harm putting 5-8 temas that look good value into an accy, is there? Out of ten 40/1 accumulators, although the odds suggest otherwise, I reckon I should be winning 1 out of every 10, if research was done and I really fancied the teams. But what I'm saying is that I WON'T lose shitloads, these are small stakes that wont hurt as much as spunking tenners on losing singles. Yes they build up, but the occasional accy win will cover that. I don't understand how people can lose so much by just doing accumulators, as long as you keep it sensible and not be tempted to go big to win your money back (something I'm admittedly guilty of doing, hence being left £50 down!) so I don't believe singles are the way to win money. You say good advice, but I don't really see many successful betters in this forum. Most people seem to lose more often. From my reading experience anyway. You are thick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aufc Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Started this 20 quid on lazio. If they win I shall be putting it on Alloa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD1711 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Started this 20 quid on lazio. If they win I shall be putting it on Alloa. Bridges ya fud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djchapsticks Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I'll try this: £20 on Celtic (-1) vs Hearts - Evens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kris. Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Think I'll start this tomorrow. Will need to be just the £10 start though. Looking at taking Lazio or Falkirk (). Edit: Went for: Lecce v Lazio - £10 returns £19.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mid-table Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Out of ten 40/1 accumulators, although the odds suggest otherwise, I reckon I should be winning 1 out of every 10, if research was done and I really fancied the teams. Absolute rubbish. However, to humour you for a minute, if you are getting a 310% profit I would recommend you stop going to school / university / work and do this full time for huge stakes. Some of the guys who make a living from betting will be looking at a 2% profit on turnover to get a good salary out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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