Jordo1872 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Step 3 - Southampton to beat Leicester City. No such thing as a certainly BUT very surprised to see Soton at Evens with a home record of W11-D1-L1 against a team in mid table. Southampton seem to have been overpriced in recent weeks, I'm assuming because Lambert was suspended. IIRC they were 13/10 two weekends ago and 7/5 last Saturday. Won both games with a bit spare. Although Lambert is a very good player I think Southampton have a bit more about them than a reliance on a single player. Leicester just haven't yet fulfilled their pre-seson hype and as you've mentioned the Saints home form is excellent, so as even money shots go it's a good bet. Edit for typos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I got Southampton at 2.6 against Forest on Saturday, which I thought was excellent value. Comfortable 3-0 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordo1872 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I got Southampton at 2.6 against Forest on Saturday, which I thought was excellent value. Comfortable 3-0 as well. Yeah i thought that was very good value but went against my better judgement and left it alone. Given Forrest's goal scoring problems this season it did seem on the generous side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambie's Pigeon Feed Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 £10 in QPR at 8/11, lets get back in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jw88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bet 1 was > 2.5 goals on the Real v Barca game which returned ~£38. Swithering between Stoke, Sunderland or Cowdenbeath for Bet 2. Southampton are looking good on Monday night (~evens) if I make it that far! Anyone any thoughts on the weekends fixtures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jw88 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bet 2: Stoke vs WBA @ 1.95. (£38.18 returns ~£74) I ended up settling for Stoke as their record against WBA over the years is outstanding! Good luck everyone! Pint time. P.s Can anyone confirm what Asian handicap betting is? I read that it is the exact same thing as picking a team to win however the odds are increased? For example, on Bet365: Stoke to win @ 10/11 (Normal) vs. Stoke to win -0.5 @ Evens (Asian Handicap) Please help as I no longer want to miss out on some extra value... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forehead7 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 P.s Can anyone confirm what Asian handicap betting is? I read that it is the exact same thing as picking a team to win however the odds are increased? For example, on Bet365: Stoke to win @ 10/11 (Normal) vs. Stoke to win -0.5 @ Evens (Asian Handicap) Please help as I no longer want to miss out on some extra value... I'd confirm with one of the other people but I think (in that case) it would mean that you'd double your money if they win by more than 0.5 goals(so if they win by one). If they just win by 1 then you get your stake back. If they lose or draw you lose your bet. So it's like handicap betting but you don't lose money if they just win and don't win by your handicap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wug Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'd confirm with one of the other people but I think (in that case) it would mean that you'd double your money if they win by more than 0.5 goals(so if they win by one). If they just win by 1 then you get your stake back. If they lose or draw you lose your bet. No, that isn't right. Essentially, Asian handicap takes the draw out of the equation. The odds are adjusted to get a flat book as there are only 2 outcomes instead of 3. It doesn't matter for -0.5 bets as your team (Stoke in this case) only need to win by 1 goal and the bet is a winner (the adjusted score is a 0.5-0 win to Stoke. The half-goal is irrelevant, it's still a win). If it was a Stoke (-1) bet then you get your stake back if they only win by 1 goal. The adjusted bet is a draw but since you can't get a draw then the bet basically doesn't count. This is the big difference from normal handicap betting as a 'normal' handicap bet would result in the draw and you lose the bet. If it was a Stoke (-1.5) then you lose the bet if they only win by 1 goal. The adjusted bet is a 0.5 win for West Brom. It gets a bit complicated when you take quarter bets. E.g. If you take Stoke (-0.75) and it is a 1-0 win then half your stake goes on the -0.5 and this results in a win but half your stake goes on the -1 and this results in a bogey (draw) - half your stake returned. Similarly if you take Stoke (-1.25) and the result is a one goal victory to Stoke then half your stake loses at-1.5 (adjusted score is 0.5-0 to WBA) and half your stake is returned at -1 (adjusted score is a draw - bogey). Essentially, yes, -0.5 is just a better way of getting value on the team to win. Hope this answers it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forehead7 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No, that isn't right. Essentially, Asian handicap takes the draw out of the equation. The odds are adjusted to get a flat book as there are only 2 outcomes instead of 3. It doesn't matter for -0.5 bets as your team (Stoke in this case) only need to win by 1 goal and the bet is a winner (the adjusted score is a 0.5-0 win to Stoke. The half-goal is irrelevant, it's still a win). If it was a Stoke (-1) bet then you get your stake back if they only win by 1 goal. The adjusted bet is a draw but since you can't get a draw then the bet basically doesn't count. This is the big difference from normal handicap betting as a 'normal' handicap bet would result in the draw and you lose the bet. If it was a Stoke (-1.5) then you lose the bet if they only win by 1 goal. The adjusted bet is a 0.5 win for West Brom. It gets a bit complicated when you take quarter bets. E.g. If you take Stoke (-0.75) and it is a 1-0 win then half your stake goes on the -0.5 and this results in a win but half your stake goes on the -1 and this results in a bogey (draw) - half your stake returned. Similarly if you take Stoke (-1.25) and the result is a one goal victory to Stoke then half your stake loses at-1.5 (adjusted score is 0.5-0 to WBA) and half your stake is returned at -1 (adjusted score is a draw - bogey). Essentially, yes, -0.5 is just a better way of getting value on the team to win. Hope this answers it. Sorry yeah, got mixed up between 0.5 (his bet) and -1.5(the bet I had on Man City against Wigan which is the time I used it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wug Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 None of your stake gets returned on the -1.5 bet. The adjusted score was a 0.5 goal victory to Wigan so you should have lost your entire stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forehead7 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 None of your stake gets returned on the -1.5 bet. The adjusted score was a 0.5 goal victory to Wigan so you should have lost your entire stake. Sorry, it was Man City -1 asian handicap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanny paddery Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bet 2: Stoke vs WBA @ 1.95. (£38.18 returns ~£74) I ended up settling for Stoke as their record against WBA over the years is outstanding! Good luck everyone! Pint time. P.s Can anyone confirm what Asian handicap betting is? I read that it is the exact same thing as picking a team to win however the odds are increased? For example, on Bet365: Stoke to win @ 10/11 (Normal) vs. Stoke to win -0.5 @ Evens (Asian Handicap) Please help as I no longer want to miss out on some extra value... -0.5 on the asian is the same as backing a team to win outright. Bookmakers margins are much less on the asian hence the better value! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambie's Pigeon Feed Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 My second bet is a West Ham and Senegal double at 4/7 and 4/6 getting my pot to around the £40 stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duffy_ Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Had a tenner in my Paddy Power account so I'm going to start with that. First bet is Barnsley @ 11/10 to beat Millwall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCR Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Has anyone in the last 31 pages achieved the grand apart from the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wug Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Has anyone in the last 31 pages achieved the grand apart from the OP? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duffy_ Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Had a tenner in my Paddy Power account so I'm going to start with that. First bet is Barnsley @ 11/10 to beat Millwall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambie's Pigeon Feed Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Has anyone in the last 31 pages achieved the grand apart from the OP? I got one bet away and had £500 on St Mirren (-1) against Ayr in the League Cup, we all know how that ended From memory 2 others have come close and been in the hundreds when they lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambie's Pigeon Feed Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 My second bet is a West Ham and Senegal double at 4/7 and 4/6 getting my pot to around the £40 stage. Senegal pumped. Shite defending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jw88 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 No, that isn't right. Essentially, Asian handicap takes the draw out of the equation. The odds are adjusted to get a flat book as there are only 2 outcomes instead of 3. It doesn't matter for -0.5 bets as your team (Stoke in this case) only need to win by 1 goal and the bet is a winner (the adjusted score is a 0.5-0 win to Stoke. The half-goal is irrelevant, it's still a win). If it was a Stoke (-1) bet then you get your stake back if they only win by 1 goal. The adjusted bet is a draw but since you can't get a draw then the bet basically doesn't count. This is the big difference from normal handicap betting as a 'normal' handicap bet would result in the draw and you lose the bet. If it was a Stoke (-1.5) then you lose the bet if they only win by 1 goal. The adjusted bet is a 0.5 win for West Brom. It gets a bit complicated when you take quarter bets. E.g. If you take Stoke (-0.75) and it is a 1-0 win then half your stake goes on the -0.5 and this results in a win but half your stake goes on the -1 and this results in a bogey (draw) - half your stake returned. Similarly if you take Stoke (-1.25) and the result is a one goal victory to Stoke then half your stake loses at-1.5 (adjusted score is 0.5-0 to WBA) and half your stake is returned at -1 (adjusted score is a draw - bogey). Essentially, yes, -0.5 is just a better way of getting value on the team to win. Hope this answers it. Much appreciated Wug. I'll stick with the Asian Handicaps from now on... I'll more than likely start 6 ---> G again tomorrow with Southampton if Man Utd hold on as I have a small stake on the Manchester double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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