Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[GordonS]

5 minutes ago, SandyCromarty said:

I was led to understand that the deal struck between Kate Forbes and John Swinney was that Forbes would be given a good cabinet position so I was surprised when she was declared as Deputy Leader which immediately angered the Greens meaning Swinneys minority government will not be able to call upon them so that leaves Arsehole Cole Hamiltons Liberals ???

 

She did get a good cabinet position, she got Economy, basically her old job. DFM is never a job on its own, it has always been coupled with a cabinet post, usually Finance.

Kate Forbes' appointment won't annoy the Greens any further than they already have been. She said she'll support SG on the Gender Recognition Reform Bill and on a trans-inclusive ban on conversion therapy. 

In her new job she might be more likely to annoy Labour, she's no friend of the trade unions. 

[ICTChris]

On 11/05/2024 at 12:19, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I genuinely don't know who they are questioning because my impression is that people across the political spectrum are pissed off with the Greens. 

I think they’ve been polling at a level that would see them gain seats for a while.

Also, the Herald reported today that they have seen an increase in membership since the latest furore.

[Jedi2]

1 hour ago, lichtgilphead said:

Oh, if we're using competence in devolved government as a benchmark, Labour have been an administration in Wales for the past 25 years, in a period when, aside from broadcasting, foreign affairs and defence, pretty much everything else has been devolved. They of course have power over taxation as well.

Would think that might be a long enough period to assess how Labour do in government.

As far as I'm aware, the Scottish Government outperforms the Welsh Government in most areas.

Hardly a ringing endorsement of Labour, is it.

But...but...but....but...Labour (with far fewer powers in Cardiff than Hoyrood) and the Tories are worse, so SNP doing a great job.

Yawn...Tedium levels off the scale. Top trolling though.

Edited May 12 by Jedi2

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

On 11/05/2024 at 16:01, Freedom Farter said:

Here's a convincing argument to the contrary, if you have the time:

https://youtu.be/F5eFPgvhS60?si=MNA0NPRZ55azlE9X

Finally got round to watching the video you linked.

I'm actually not a fan of Crowder and see him as a scumbag.  I see the way he speaks to his wife here as abuse.

His explanation of the divorce showed him up to be a narcissist, and I'm sure many of his ex-employees have spoken about his weird ways, and Dave Landau said something about it being in his contract that he couldn't upstage him with jokes or something.

A quick google search does show some other sources making claims of Guevara's homophobia, however some claiming the opposite too.  It's probably going to be hard to get to the truth.

Anyway, in keeping with the theme of the thread, here's a link to some 2016 Evangelical Alliance polling on the extremism of Che Guevara, as well as Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King.. and Jesus!

New polling asks about extremism (eauk.org)

 

Edited May 12 by CarrbridgeSaintee

[lichtgilphead]

19 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

But...but...but....but...Labour (with far fewer powers in Cardiff than Hoyrood) and the Tories are worse, so SNP doing a great job.

Yawn...Tedium levels off the scale. Top trolling though.

You compared the SNP's powers in Holyrood with the powers available to a Scottish Govt under Indy, yet object when I compare Labour's performance in Wales with the SNP's performance in Holyrood? 

If I'm understanding you correctly, you are saying that the SNP perform better because they have more powers in Scotland than Labour in Wales. If this is the case, then imagine how much better things would be if the Scottish Parliament had the powers of a normal independent country!

And please note that I said "the Scottish Parliament", not "the SNP". Like others above, I believe that the SNP will split once Indy is achieved.

[Jedi2]

At the moment support for the SNP is clearly trailing support for Independence by a signicant gap..(around 30% for the former and 45-50% the latter).

Is this (finally) a decoupling of 'I support Independence therefore can 'only' vote SNP? Clearly there are significant numbers of folk who would vote Yes in the Referendum/continue to support Indy, but are fed up with the SNP, due to presumably, record in govt/'other' controversies.

Might it be, that in years to come, the Independence moment (hopefully) doesn't need the SNP?

If support for it can reach say 60% on a consistent basis, (at a time with much lower numbers of SNP MPs), chances still are that a Referendum happens and things go from there.

Edited May 12 by Jedi2

[lichtgilphead]

No Jedi, there have always been around 30% of Labour supporters that would vote "Yes". Similarly, there are around 8% of weird Tory supporters that are also "Yes" voters. There are also "No"voters amongst SNP supporters.

It's more interesting to look at where Labour are picking up votes from. Is it from Tory Yoons, who are voting Labour to try to beat the SNP in individual constituencies, or is it from SNP voters who think that Labour might be the slightly less evil option at Westminster?

Whatever happens, Labour will have been in power at WM for at least 18 months by the time of the next Scottish Election. Let's see how that shifts the numbers.

 

 

[Jedi2]

I would suspect that the biggest shift toward Labour for the GE (with the 38-31% current lead) has come mostly from disillusioned SNP voters.

No doubt a whole host of reasons in there..yes, lesser of two evils re the Tories, but also fed up with recent events at Holyrood and 'other' controversies.

May well be 18 months between a new govt (if it is a Labour one) and Holyrood elections, but if the polls hold up, and the SNP lose a lot of seats at GE, they still have 2 years of Swinney to come, as well as more of Branchform, Salmond's legal action against them etc.

[sophia]

22 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

Kate Forbes and those around her are very much on the right wing of politics ecomically 

[MazzyStar]

3 minutes ago, sophia said:

Come on sophia, give an explanation as to why you think that someone that has repeatedly espoused conservative views isn’t actually right wing. 

[GordonS]

2 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

Might it be, that in years to come, the Independence moment (hopefully) doesn't need the SNP?

If support for it can reach say 60% on a consistent basis, (at a time with much lower numbers of SNP MPs), chances still are that a Referendum happens and things go from there.

Wow.

[Jedi2]

17 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Wow.

So...SNP support currently at 31%, which would equate to significant seat loses at the GE. A 'defeat' for the SNP..does that mean support for Independence is therefore 'dead' or dropping from its 45-50% post-GE? Don't think so. Therefore where is the 'Wow' in a decoupling of SNP voting and support for Independence?

Or is the 'Wow' that consistent 60 odd percent Independence polling would trigger a Referendum? Even Alistair Jack of all people has conceded that.

The SNP have had their 'mandates for a Referendum in 4 elections in a row now..denied (with Indy support hovering at less than 50% on the whole albeit in that time and sometimes in the high 30s/early 40s)...and that has been with Johnson, Brexit, Truss et al.

60 odd percent (outside the SNP) is a different matter

Edited May 12 by Jedi2

[jakedee]

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

So...SNP support currently at 31%, which would equate to significant seat loses at the GE. A 'defeat' for the SNP..does that mean support for Independence is therefore 'dead' or dropping from its 45-50% post-GE? Don't think so. Therefore where is the 'Wow' in a decoupling of SNP voting and support for Independence?

Or is the 'Wow' that consistent 60 odd percent Independence polling would trigger a Referendum? Even Alistair Jack of all people has conceded that.

The SNP have had their 'mandates for a Referendum in 4 elections in a row now..denied (with Indy support hovering at less than 50% on the whole albeit in that time and sometimes in the high 30s/early 40s)...and that has been with Johnson, Brexit, Truss et al.

60 odd percent (outside the SNP) is a different matter

If you honestly believe a Westminster Govt, backed by a Unionist Govt. in Holyrood,would deliver a referendum whether the polls supporting independence were at 6 or 60% , then I have a bridge to sell.

I seem to remember all it needed for a referendum was for " Nationalists to return a majority of MP's to Westminster".

I wouldn't trust what any London based MP said regarding referendums, never mind Alistair Jack.

[JS_FFC]

10 hours ago, ICTChris said:

I think they’ve been polling at a level that would see them gain seats for a while.

Also, the Herald reported today that they have seen an increase in membership since the latest furore.

The Green popularity could become a bit of a problem for the SNP at the next Holyrood election. The last couple of elections have seen the SNP achieve a near clean sweep of the constituency seats (with the exceptions being the Lib Dem loving Northern Isles and a couple of other weird Lib Dem areas, Tory farmers at either end of the country, Edinburgh South which has a huge English and Welsh population, and Jackie Baillie)

 

This has meant that an SNP vote on the list is effectively wasted. Case in point being the last election where the SNP got 40% of the regional list vote but only 2 of the 56 MSPs elected through this method.

 

Voters are to an extent wise to this and the last two elections have seen a 6%-7% drop off in the SNP list vote compared to their constituency vote with the equivalent amount going to the Greens.

 

The SNP haven’t actively encouraged this, but they’ve at very least not campaigned heavily on the “both votes SNP” thing like they did in 2007 and 2011. It’s been useful for them to have Greens getting in through the list instead of votes being wasted on the SNP and allowing more unionist MSPs in to challenge the government. 

 

However, current polling suggests the constituencies will be a far more even split between the SNP and Labour next time so the SNP will need to ensure their list vote holds up to mitigate against at least some of the losses. Case in point being the last couple of polls which have shown the constituency vote being close to neck and neck between the SNP and Labour, but the latter being 5%-7% ahead on the list and therefore on track to become the largest party,

 

John Swinney will need to campaign very hard to encourage voters to give the SNP both votes and squeeze the Greens. 

[Granny Danger]

The next election for the Scottish Parliament is two years away.  By then there will have been a Labour government at Westminster for about 18 months.  That’s plenty of time for the people of Scotland to judge whether they want a Labour administration at Holyrood.

 

[SandyCromarty]

12 hours ago, ICTChris said:

I think they’ve been polling at a level that would see them gain seats for a while.

Also, the Herald reported today that they have seen an increase in membership since the latest furore.

That's mainly coming from the Millennials and Gen Z generations plus silverbacks, and it will continue to grow.

[Crùbag]

14 hours ago, SandyCromarty said:

I was led to understand that the deal struck between Kate Forbes and John Swinney was that Forbes would be given a good cabinet position so I was surprised when she was declared as Deputy Leader which immediately angered the Greens meaning Swinneys minority government will not be able to call upon them so that leaves Arsehole Cole Hamiltons Liberals ???

As for Forbes there is support for her including in my own family and her, to me, outlandish policies seems to be in line with the older generation.

I did hear that if there had been  leader election between Forbes and Swinney and Forbes winning there would have been senior resignations.

 

 

 

Coke-Hamilton would be even worse...

Time for SNP's various factions and the Greens to progress beyond their own bahookies. Forbes, like you say, has read the room. Credit to her for that and to Swinney for accomodating her.

[A Diamond For Me]

3 hours ago, JS_FFC said:

The Green popularity could become a bit of a problem for the SNP at the next Holyrood election. The last couple of elections have seen the SNP achieve a near clean sweep of the constituency seats (with the exceptions being the Lib Dem loving Northern Isles and a couple of other weird Lib Dem areas, Tory farmers at either end of the country, Edinburgh South which has a huge English and Welsh population, and Jackie Baillie)

 

Are there really that many Welsh people in Edinburgh South?

[orfc]

4 minutes ago, A Diamond For Me said:

 

Are there really that many Welsh people in Edinburgh South?

After the mines shut many from the valleys moved to Little Llanelli (as Morningside is known) to work in the tartan quarries behind Waitrose

[JS_FFC]

12 minutes ago, A Diamond For Me said:

 

Are there really that many Welsh people in Edinburgh South?

https://www.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/atoms/files/student_factsheet_31072023_0.pdf
 

Almost as many Edinburgh University students are from other parts of the UK as there are from Scotland.