Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[JS_FFC]

13 minutes ago, GTG_03 said:

If indy support is consistently polling at 60% there is no way any Westminster government are 'allowing' a referendum.

Neither labour or the Tories will accept being painted as the party that broke up the UK.

Yeah. The 'punching above our weight' stuff is laughable looking back now. 

I can't see any way to indy tbh. There's more chance of Westminster shutting holyrood down on a 'britain works best together' ticket.

Thats it. I’m not even sure David Cameron would have allowed a referendum with hindsight because the end result was a lot closer than the UK government originally expected and a Yes win would have meant the entire UKG having to resign in disgrace.

 

Also the fact that Cameron did allow a vote means that any future UK PM has the easy out of “you already had your chance and you said no”.

 

The only chance of independence actually happening would be one of the two main UK parties deciding they wanted to break up the UK for whatever reason, or if the SNP hold the balance of power if there’s a hung parliament at Westminster and they can negotiate a referendum in return for entering a coalition. This “de facto referendum” strategy won’t stand a chance of being taken seriously by Sunak/Starmer.

[ICTChris]

19 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

Do you think independence is off the table for the foreseeable future then or do you think there’s a feasible non-referendum route?

The former, although who really knows what the future could hold.

 

[Thane of Cawdor]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I would say that there is almost no chance of another referendum again in the foreseeable future.  I can't believe any Westminister government would agree to it.  I don't think there will another major referendum in the UK again in the foreseeable either.

There is already provision for a future referendum in the form of an Irish Border Poll. Also factored in is the capacity to hold such a poll every seven years (until they get the right result?). 

Clearly there are different considerations in the case of Ireland, but it does set a precedent, not only for a Referendum, but for repetitions of the Poll. For better or worse this shows a readiness to accept the break-up  of the United Kingdom. I wonder why Northern Ireland might be considered dispensable.

1. The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order.

2. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.

3. The Secretary of State shall not make an order under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.

[A Diamond For Me]

2 hours ago, JS_FFC said:

https://www.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/atoms/files/student_factsheet_31072023_0.pdf
 

Almost as many Edinburgh University students are from other parts of the UK as there are from Scotland.

Aye, though that overwhelmingly means England.  That document says 335 Edinburgh Uni students are Welsh and 11,245 are English.

[strichener]

30 minutes ago, Thane of Cawdor said:

There is already provision for a future referendum in the form of an Irish Border Poll. Also factored in is the capacity to hold such a poll every seven years (until they get the right result?). 

Clearly there are different considerations in the case of Ireland, but it does set a precedent, not only for a Referendum, but for repetitions of the Poll. For better or worse this shows a readiness to accept the break-up  of the United Kingdom. I wonder why Northern Ireland might be considered dispensable.

1. The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order.

2. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.

3. The Secretary of State shall not make an order under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.

Cool, I am really looking backward to the next referendum in 2021.

[Wee-Bey]

Are we still posting polls in here ?

The Great British public have spoken. Starmer simply must ban woke karaoke as soon as he is PM.

[Dan Steele]

Karawoke, Shirley?

[BFTD]

Fucking depressing that the popularity of Karaoke is still increasing. I can understand people liking to sing a song themselves, but why would you want to listen to people brutally murdering songs that you (presumably) like?

Then again, talent shows are still popular, aren't they. Mariah Carey's great 'n' all, but what if her songs were sung by someone with far less talent?  

[btb]

10 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Then again, talent shows are still popular, aren't they. Mariah Carey's great 'n' all, but what if her songs were sung by someone with far less talent?  

What is a Talent Show if not a poll of the performers' talents?

Disco Diva Kelly Marie won Opportunity Knocks while performing as a C&W singer (Jackie Brown). 

Her brother supports Saint Mirren!

Edited May 13 by btb

[BFTD]

1 minute ago, btb said:

What is a Talent Show if not a poll of the performers' talents?

Disco Diva Kelly Marie won Opportunity Knocks while performing as a C&W singer (Jackie Brown). 

Her brother supports Saint Mirren!

I can't decide if this is a pro- or anti-talent show post.

The last line suggests the latter?

[btb]

3 minutes ago, BFTD said:

I can't decide if this is a pro- or anti-talent show post.

The last line suggests the latter?

Pro, I like to see the bizarre acts like Jo Swinson get eliminated - happier daze!.

 

[Jedi2]

Obviously Northern Ireland is 'different' due to the circumstances there, and the fact that the GFA is a legally binding document, so clearly if a majority polled wanted a Ref, one has to be granted.

In Scotland though, if you think an SNP majority of MP's won't do it, or a Holyrood election win, or a consistent 60% polling support.....what is the route?

Also, if the argument for voting SNP is 'just' to 'get Independence' but there is an idea that Westminster govts (of any stripe) won't authorise a Ref, whatever the level of SNP support..does it not go back to 'what does an SNP vote achieve'? (Genuine question)

I still reckon the 60%ish in polling would force the hand of any Westminster govt, but its still a long way from that scenario at the moment.

Edited May 13 by Jedi2

[ICTChris]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Way_killings

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

1 minute ago, Jedi2 said:

I still reckon the 60%ish in polling would force the hand of any Westminster govt, but its still a long way from that scenario at the moment.

The same Westminster government who today compared Scottish independence supporters to Al-Qaeda and Hamas?

[Fullerene]

2 hours ago, BFTD said:

Fucking depressing that the popularity of Karaoke is still increasing. I can understand people liking to sing a song themselves, but why would you want to listen to people brutally murdering songs that you (presumably) like?

Then again, talent shows are still popular, aren't they. Mariah Carey's great 'n' all, but what if her songs were sung by someone with far less talent?  

It was banned in Turkmenistan.

However you might want to check if it still is before you book any holidays there.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

2 hours ago, btb said:

What is a Talent Show if not a poll of the performers' talents?

Disco Diva Kelly Marie won Opportunity Knocks while performing as a C&W singer (Jackie Brown). 

Her brother supports Saint Mirren!

I saw KM sing that song live in, appropriately enough, Akrams Disco in Dumbarton back in the day.  Would I be right in saying that her real name was Jacqueline McKinnon ?

[HTG]

2 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

Obviously Northern Ireland is 'different' due to the circumstances there, and the fact that the GFA is a legally binding document, so clearly if a majority polled wanted a Ref, one has to be granted.

In Scotland though ..... what is the route?

 

There isn't one. Northern Ireland is defined and it's none of this 60% stuff. Scotland does not have a documented route - it is entirely dependent on England's approval. 

And if you or anyone else thinks that the likes of Starmer or whatever arsehole is leading the other lot is going to volunteer a referendum in Scotland then you're kidding yourself on. As things stand, you get more latitude by blowing stuff up for 30 years than you do by trying to work out what a democratic path might look like. UDI always looks like the preserve of the moron but I can't see how else Scotland can move forward in the event of a clear vote in an election - rather than a poll. 

[vikingTON]

8 minutes ago, HTG said:

There isn't one. Northern Ireland is defined and it's none of this 60% stuff. Scotland does not have a documented route - it is entirely dependent on England's approval. 

And if you or anyone else thinks that the likes of Starmer or whatever arsehole is leading the other lot is going to volunteer a referendum in Scotland then you're kidding yourself on. As things stand, you get more latitude by blowing stuff up for 30 years than you do by trying to work out what a democratic path might look like. UDI always looks like the preserve of the moron but I can't see how else Scotland can move forward in the event of a clear vote in an election - rather than a poll. 

Scottish nationalism moves forward by salami-slicing more and more powers for Hollywood as the mandate at each and every election. That is the path forward but the SNP is still just about reversing out of the cul-de-sac Sturgeon drove into - Swinney dropping the Minister for Independence should be part of that change of strategy. 

[Jedi2]

Would agree with this..incremental powers gained each time. Gets to the point eventually when it can be said 'might as well be Independent'.

A change of tack by the SNP on this might well be what regains support.

[JS_FFC]

It’s a fairly valid strategy to be fair. Every time the SNP make a play for full blown independence, the olive branch from Westminster is more incremental powers for the Scottish Parliament (most famously the vow). 
 

A few more rounds of that and WM’s only role is protecting (defence) and representing us (foreign affairs).

Edited May 13 by JS_FFC