Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[BerwickMad]

Yeah, and the No campaign has been doing.... what, exactly?

I'm not defending the No campaign.

[dorlomin]

Combination mobile/landline poll. Will be interesting to see as it's the only ICM phone poll to date - and traditionally Yes have struggled in the Ipsos phone polls. They've brought it forward massively as well which suggests a bad result for Yes as well.

Young\low income are "poorly represented" in landline polls. ICMs GE polling tends to weight heavily on how you voted last time (hence the big whig dem results compared to others).

As for bringing it forward, page hits trump politics with all newspapers today. Any poll will bring in the page hits this week.

(Id be willing to guess a largish No lead that means very little)

Edited September 12, 2014 by dorlomin

[Michael W]

51/49 in favour of No.

Confirms the recent trend.

[dorlomin]

Scottish referendum too close to call, says ICM poll

Guardian/ICM poll finds support for no campaign on 51% and yes on 49% with less than a week to go, but 17% of voters say they have yet to make up their mind

[strichener]

I hope all the 16 year olds and a large swathe of the 17 year olds that are voting in this election realise that they won't be voting in the General Election because the UK governement think they are too stupid to understand politics.

If they are voting no, do they understand that their opinion then won't matter for another 5 1/2 years.

Edited September 12, 2014 by strichener

[Guest]

Guardian Scotland ‏@GdnScotland 6s

EXCLUSIVE: @guardian @ICMResearch telephone poll has #indyref on knife-edge: 51% no vs 49% yes

I'll take it

[Lex]

42 No

40 Yes

17 DK

Surprised at the high amount of DK's.

[Leggy Blonde]

Just been published. Yes 49 No 51.

All the polls begining to converge now.

[Kyle]

That's a great result for yes, considering the onslaught this week.

[Ross.]

Massive change from their last poll.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Yes +4

No -4

Much, much better than I was expecting. Pleased with that. Concern is the high number of DKs. As said before, think it gets to a certain point where the DKs left might be likely No's.

[Elixir]

Surely there wouldn't have been many folk under the age of say, 30, polled if it was landline only?

[Colkitto]

Looks like scaremongering still not having an effect. No Westminister's leaders or Gordon Brown bounce either.

What have the No campaign left with a week to go?

[Guest]

I am literally changing my mind every hour about which way this is going to go.

Honestly think there is about 10,000 votes in this either way.

[dorlomin]

The unprecedented political engagement generated by the campaign shines through in the poll, which finds 87% of respondents describing themselves as “absolutely certain to vote”, far more than the 55% who said the same thing about the next Westminster election in the most recent UK-wide Guardian/ICM poll.

Unfickingreal.

[renton]

Screw that, that's a great poll for Yes, on a traditionally bad methodology for yes, No ahead by a literal bawhair, a weke to go and with the onslaught of the last week, the Yes vote held up.

[Ross.]

if 87% say they will definitely vote, then the don't know figure is far too high if you ask me.

Does "None of your f*cking business" count as a don't know?

[renton]

42 No

40 Yes

17 DK

Surprised at the high amount of DK's.

Like TNS and their face to face polling, or the RIC and their face to face canvassing, actually talking to another human being about your opinion tends to cause a larger degree of reticence than the online polls where anonymity is guarenteed and you are self selecting from particulalry politically engaged people

Edited September 12, 2014 by renton

[Elixir]

I am literally changing my mind every hour about which way this is going to go.

I'm the same. My head is like a blender.

[Lex]

Like TNS and their face to face polling, or the RIC and thier face to face canvassing, actually talking to another human being about your opinion tends to cause a larger degree of reitcence than the online polls where anonymity is guarenteed and you are self selecting from particulalry politically engaged people

Personally I think that does a favour for YES. I think NO voters are more likely to say they are undecided than YES voters if asked face to face, it's natural to try not give a negative answer like NO when speaking to someone.