Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Granny Danger]

Latest Savanta poll has the LibDems on 50 seats and the SNP on 8.

[welshbairn]

20 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Latest Savanta poll has the LibDems on 50 seats and the SNP on 8.

Not necessarily relevant to SNP seats given the sample size in Scotland. 

 

[Granny Danger]

6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Not necessarily relevant to SNP seats given the sample size in Scotland. 

 

Yeah I get that but they insist on publishing with no disclaimers beyond the normal ones.

[welshbairn]

14 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Yeah I get that but they insist on publishing with no disclaimers beyond the normal ones.

It's commissioned by the Telegraph so they're bigging up Reform. 

[Jedi2]

On 21/06/2024 at 19:53, lichtgilphead said:

Shifting the goalposts by referring to a part of the interview that you hadn't really mentioned before isn't "picking & choosing". I responded to the actual point that you had made, and agreed with the IFS guy's assessment.

You however, appear to be incapable of admitting that Labour's plans will result in cuts of between £6 billion and £16 billion over the next 5 years. His projection of Labour cuts doesn't extend any further, so god knows what's in store if they get a second term.

I've already suggested a number of expenditure cuts that I would hope that the Scottish Government will make after Indy. From your response, I assume that (like Labour) you want to keep the monarchy, the House of Lords & the nukes? 

Incidentally, the unprotected budgets that Labour plan to cut include Local Government, which has already been cut to the bone. That's probably a few quid more than your example of foreign aid. Funny that you didn't mention it. 

'Hadn't really mentioned before' ie..referenced BOTH the IFS mention of the potential 6 to 16 billion cuts (which are based on a projection of the next financial year, not beyond that), AND the deade of austerity under SNP plans in my original post on it...yet more lies.

The SNP last time I checked, want to keep the monarchy, and it's in Labour's manifesto (yes, as it has been many times before) to replace the H of L.

You are quite right that local government has been cut to the bone in Scotland, largely through the middle-class sop of continued Council Tax freeze.

Still no acknowledgement that the IFS don't reckon on 'some expenditure cuts' under the SNP's plans, but a decade of slashing public services.

I think the very definition of 'picking and choosing' is castigating Labour's position (inheriting a Tory wrecked economy with little room for manoeuvre), while ignoring a 10 year plan which would see Scotland significantly worse off.I get the 'oh, but all better in the long run', but 10 years of misery first?

Edited June 22 by Jedi2

[lichtgilphead]

31 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

1)'Hadn't really mentioned before' ie..referenced BOTH the IFS mention of the potential 6 to 16 billion cuts (which are based on a projection of the next financial year, not beyond that), AND the deade of austerity under SNP plans in my original post on it...yet more lies.

2)The SNP last time I checked, want to keep the monarchy, and 3) it's in Labour's manifesto (yes, as it has been many times before) to replace the H of L.

4) You are quite right that local government has been cut to the bone in Scotland, largely through the middle-class sop of continued Council Tax freeze.

5) Still no acknowledgement that the IFS don't reckon on 'some expenditure cuts' under the SNP's plans, but a decade of slashing public services.

1) Your original post was in the "SNP lies..." thread. Why are you not replying there? Is it because I exposed your lies about the definition of UDI?

Your original post talked about a decade of austerity. I've set out some cuts I would make, pointed out that the finances of iScotland will depend on the settlement & said that I'm happy to look at the long -term advantage of never electing a tory government again as sufficient justification for any potential additional costs. What more do you expect me to say?

I have now listened to the full 8 minutes of the interview with the IFS spokesman. I don't recall him saying anything about "the next financial year". My recollection is that he said that the Tories would make cuts of between £10bn and £20bn and that Labour would make cuts of between £6bn and £16bn over the course of the next parliament. Please provide a link to where he says "the next financial year, If you don't, I'll have to assume that you are lying again.

2) I'm not an SNP spokesman. I specifically pointed out some cuts I would like them to make. Learn to read what I actually said, not what you want to imagine I said,

3) The Labour manifesto used to say abolish the HoL. Are you suggesting that replacing it is the current policy. Will this be a continuation of the current policy of providing ex'Labour MP's with a £300/day pension for life?

4) I said that local government has been cut to the bone. I didn't specify Scotland only. English & Welsh local government have been cut far more savagely than Scotland. There were minimal (if any) council tax freezes down south.

5) I don't recall that exact quote from the IFS spokesman. Please provide a link to where he says "a decade of slashing public services"

If it's just your usual ill-informed speculation, it;s hardly worthy of reply

[eindhovendee]

 

[ICTChris]

Labour activists being pulled away from Lib Dem target seats.

https://www.ft.com/content/f60a0cfb-d2e2-4faa-83b2-977839056c95
 

 

[Suspect Device]

On 21/06/2024 at 20:13, BFTD said:

Sausage, egg, and chips for dinner tonight.

Sounds a bit bland but maybe a bit underrated as a low-key meal.

Sauce?

[ICTChris]

 

[BFTD]

The Lib Dems down to fifth behind the fascists.

Normally I'd laugh, but the Lib Dems aren't planning attacks on businesses based on the owner's birthplace.

[Granny Danger]

7 hours ago, BFTD said:

The Lib Dems down to fifth behind the fascists.

Normally I'd laugh, but the Lib Dems aren't planning attacks on businesses based on the owner's birthplace.

Still polling about half in Scotland of their polling numbers in England.  Too much for my liking but still a strong indicator of how much the two sets of voters differ.

[ICTChris]

I don’t think Reform polling 8% is a surprise. In the last two European elections UKIP got 10% and the Brexit Party got 15% in Scotland, both with MEPs elected. 

I think Reform will probably collapse in the next few years but if they don’t I wouldn’t be massively surprised to see them get a seat in the Scottish Parliament in 2026, although it will be tricky for them.

[Leith Green]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I don’t think Reform polling 8% is a surprise. In the last two European elections UKIP got 10% and the Brexit Party got 15% in Scotland, both with MEPs elected. 

I think Reform will probably collapse in the next few years but if they don’t I wouldn’t be massively surprised to see them get a seat in the Scottish Parliament in 2026, although it will be tricky for them.

The 8% are - mostly - disaffected right wing tories looking for a home.

They dont really want "power" as such, just someone to shout racist nonsense in parliament - if they get a seat in Holyrood, they will be a laughing stock.

[Granny Danger]

32 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

The 8% are - mostly - disaffected right wing tories looking for a home.

They dont really want "power" as such, just someone to shout racist nonsense in parliament - if they get a seat in Holyrood, they will be a laughing stock.

People who think immigrants should be sent to Rwanda but should have to pay their own airfare?

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I don’t think Reform polling 8% is a surprise. In the last two European elections UKIP got 10% and the Brexit Party got 15% in Scotland, both with MEPs elected. 

I think Reform will probably collapse in the next few years but if they don’t I wouldn’t be massively surprised to see them get a seat in the Scottish Parliament in 2026, although it will be tricky for them.

Bear in mind that only about 35% of eligible voters bothered turning out at the EU elections, which were the cup final for the xenophobes - if you didn't like foreigners, you weren't missing those!

Used to grind my gears that the press would act like Farage had a sweeping victory when less than 10% of the eligible vote had turned out for him.

[ICTChris]

There’s a tool that shows you the MRP predictions across polling firms for individual constituencies 

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

One interesting thing, I’m in Edinburgh South West which seems to be a knife edge between Labour and the SNP, with the 5 polling orgs saying SNP and five saying Labour. I haven’t had a single piece of literature from the SNP in the entire campaign. I live in a fairly large estate, I’ve had leaflets from the Tories and Labour as well as mandatory campaign leaflets.

Maybe the SNP are campaigning harder on other parts of the constituency but it seems strange to me.

[GordonS]

1 minute ago, ICTChris said:

There’s a tool that shows you the MRP predictions across polling firms for individual constituencies 

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

One interesting thing, I’m in Edinburgh South West which seems to be a knife edge between Labour and the SNP, with the 5 polling orgs saying SNP and five saying Labour. I haven’t had a single piece of literature from the SNP in the entire campaign. I live in a fairly large estate, I’ve had leaflets from the Tories and Labour as well as mandatory campaign leaflets.

Maybe the SNP are campaigning harder on other parts of the constituency but it seems strange to me.

Constituency-level predictions are all based on applying a uniform swing of one kind of another, they're all making assumptions and many of them are obviously rubbish. That site is good for trying to work out which have better methodology that others. For example, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East largely replaces Banff & Buchan. Labour haven't had more than 15% in any general election there since 1970 and are usually well below that level. Sevanta has them a close third on 29% while YouGov has them on 10%. More in Common has the Lib Dems on 17% in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is mince.

I don't know which of the MRPs are good but I suspect they're all weak, just in different ways, because voting patterns vary so much due to local factors and tactical voting.

[Blue-Toon]

1 hour ago, GordonS said:

Constituency-level predictions are all based on applying a uniform swing of one kind of another, they're all making assumptions and many of them are obviously rubbish. That site is good for trying to work out which have better methodology that others. For example, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East largely replaces Banff & Buchan. Labour haven't had more than 15% in any general election there since 1970 and are usually well below that level. Sevanta has them a close third on 29% while YouGov has them on 10%. More in Common has the Lib Dems on 17% in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is mince.

I don't know which of the MRPs are good but I suspect they're all weak, just in different ways, because voting patterns vary so much due to local factors and tactical voting.

No point in voting Labour here -

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/6506525/andy-brown-labour-aberdeenshire-moray-suspended/

[ICTChris]

Scottish Parliament poll