Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[ICTChris]

I don’t think Reform polling 8% is a surprise. In the last two European elections UKIP got 10% and the Brexit Party got 15% in Scotland, both with MEPs elected. 

I think Reform will probably collapse in the next few years but if they don’t I wouldn’t be massively surprised to see them get a seat in the Scottish Parliament in 2026, although it will be tricky for them.

[Leith Green]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I don’t think Reform polling 8% is a surprise. In the last two European elections UKIP got 10% and the Brexit Party got 15% in Scotland, both with MEPs elected. 

I think Reform will probably collapse in the next few years but if they don’t I wouldn’t be massively surprised to see them get a seat in the Scottish Parliament in 2026, although it will be tricky for them.

The 8% are - mostly - disaffected right wing tories looking for a home.

They dont really want "power" as such, just someone to shout racist nonsense in parliament - if they get a seat in Holyrood, they will be a laughing stock.

[Granny Danger]

32 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

The 8% are - mostly - disaffected right wing tories looking for a home.

They dont really want "power" as such, just someone to shout racist nonsense in parliament - if they get a seat in Holyrood, they will be a laughing stock.

People who think immigrants should be sent to Rwanda but should have to pay their own airfare?

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I don’t think Reform polling 8% is a surprise. In the last two European elections UKIP got 10% and the Brexit Party got 15% in Scotland, both with MEPs elected. 

I think Reform will probably collapse in the next few years but if they don’t I wouldn’t be massively surprised to see them get a seat in the Scottish Parliament in 2026, although it will be tricky for them.

Bear in mind that only about 35% of eligible voters bothered turning out at the EU elections, which were the cup final for the xenophobes - if you didn't like foreigners, you weren't missing those!

Used to grind my gears that the press would act like Farage had a sweeping victory when less than 10% of the eligible vote had turned out for him.

[ICTChris]

There’s a tool that shows you the MRP predictions across polling firms for individual constituencies 

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

One interesting thing, I’m in Edinburgh South West which seems to be a knife edge between Labour and the SNP, with the 5 polling orgs saying SNP and five saying Labour. I haven’t had a single piece of literature from the SNP in the entire campaign. I live in a fairly large estate, I’ve had leaflets from the Tories and Labour as well as mandatory campaign leaflets.

Maybe the SNP are campaigning harder on other parts of the constituency but it seems strange to me.

[GordonS]

1 minute ago, ICTChris said:

There’s a tool that shows you the MRP predictions across polling firms for individual constituencies 

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

One interesting thing, I’m in Edinburgh South West which seems to be a knife edge between Labour and the SNP, with the 5 polling orgs saying SNP and five saying Labour. I haven’t had a single piece of literature from the SNP in the entire campaign. I live in a fairly large estate, I’ve had leaflets from the Tories and Labour as well as mandatory campaign leaflets.

Maybe the SNP are campaigning harder on other parts of the constituency but it seems strange to me.

Constituency-level predictions are all based on applying a uniform swing of one kind of another, they're all making assumptions and many of them are obviously rubbish. That site is good for trying to work out which have better methodology that others. For example, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East largely replaces Banff & Buchan. Labour haven't had more than 15% in any general election there since 1970 and are usually well below that level. Sevanta has them a close third on 29% while YouGov has them on 10%. More in Common has the Lib Dems on 17% in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is mince.

I don't know which of the MRPs are good but I suspect they're all weak, just in different ways, because voting patterns vary so much due to local factors and tactical voting.

[Blue-Toon]

1 hour ago, GordonS said:

Constituency-level predictions are all based on applying a uniform swing of one kind of another, they're all making assumptions and many of them are obviously rubbish. That site is good for trying to work out which have better methodology that others. For example, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East largely replaces Banff & Buchan. Labour haven't had more than 15% in any general election there since 1970 and are usually well below that level. Sevanta has them a close third on 29% while YouGov has them on 10%. More in Common has the Lib Dems on 17% in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is mince.

I don't know which of the MRPs are good but I suspect they're all weak, just in different ways, because voting patterns vary so much due to local factors and tactical voting.

No point in voting Labour here -

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/6506525/andy-brown-labour-aberdeenshire-moray-suspended/

[ICTChris]

Scottish Parliament poll

 

[ICTChris]

 

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

 

 

Surprised Reform are as high as 6% in Scotland.. thought they'd be at 2 or 3.

Suppose they'll be standing in every seat though, unlike for example The Greens.

[ICTChris]

7 hours ago, GordonS said:

Constituency-level predictions are all based on applying a uniform swing of one kind of another, they're all making assumptions and many of them are obviously rubbish. That site is good for trying to work out which have better methodology that others. For example, Aberdeenshire North & Moray East largely replaces Banff & Buchan. Labour haven't had more than 15% in any general election there since 1970 and are usually well below that level. Sevanta has them a close third on 29% while YouGov has them on 10%. More in Common has the Lib Dems on 17% in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is mince.

I don't know which of the MRPs are good but I suspect they're all weak, just in different ways, because voting patterns vary so much due to local factors and tactical voting.

I think the idea of an MRP is that they don’t base their figures on uniform swings applied via constituency. It’s very strange that they all vary so widely thiugh.

Another Scotland only poll tonight.

 

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

These polls come in thick and fast.. hard to keep up with! 

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I think the idea of an MRP is that they don’t base their figures on uniform swings applied via constituency. It’s very strange that they all vary so widely thiugh.

Another Scotland only poll tonight.

 

They're not all just uniform swing, but they're still taking some form of projection from national polling. As is obvious from the figures they all use different methodology but they're all extrapolating from certain things, like social class, previous vote, age etc. I don't think they publish their methodology. The ones I would be most likely to trust are those that reflect seats that have become two-horse races, like YouGov. Most Scottish seats are two-horse races but one of the horses plays a different role in each, so the pattern in SNP-Labour seats will be different from SNP-Tory seats.

[Freedom Farter]

John Curtice. 

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5111519z57o

 

What dropped SNP below Labour. 

 

Shame he didn't specify the voting intentions of the other 16%.

[ICTChris]

 

 

[JS_FFC]

Labour leads in scotland

 

Redfield & Wilton 6%
Yougov 6%

Survation 6%
Savanta tie with SNP (but 5% on last week’s effort)

Norstat 4%

Opinium 1%
IPSOS tie

 

 

Labour are probably looking good to win the election in Scotland imo 

 

[JS_FFC]

That new Survation MRP is fake as f**k.

[HibeeJibee]

 

Poll of British farmers & agricultural workers
Sample size 1,018

33%     Conservative & Unionist
23%     Labour
22%     Reform UK
12%     Liberal Democrats
   4%     Greens
   2%     Plaid Cymru
   1%     SNP
+3%     others

[ICTChris]

[GordonS]

Given all the talk of a Labour landslide it's worth comparing polling now with the same point before the 1997 general election.

In the week before the 1997 election, Labour were consistently polling in the high 40s and regularly hitting 50%. Now they're in the low 40s, regularly below 40%. The reason Labour are so far ahead is because the Tories are much lower, usually under 20% compared with over 30% in 1997.

In December 2021 there were 46,560,452 on the electoral register for UK general elections; in 1997 that was 43,846,152. Labour got 31% of the electorate and the Tories got 22%. My guess is those figures are going to be much lower. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election

PS: The population has grown 13% since 1997 but the electorate has only grown 6%.