Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[The Master]

On 01/07/2024 at 21:20, HibeeJibee said:

Popped onto Electoral Calculus and notice they predict even Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk to go Labour...

I'll eat my hatstand if it does.

Last time Conservatives 48.4%, SNP 38.8%, Lib Dems 8.1%, Labour 4.7%.

(Labour hasn't taken more than 10% in the seat since 2005 plus hasn't finished 2nd or higher since 1979 when Berwickshire was in with East Lothian and 1918 for the rest).

Electoral Calculus is all over the place. Yesterday they had Dundee Central "staying"* SNP with Arbroath and Broughty Ferry going Labour. Now it seems to be the other way round.

*New seat, so notionally...

[scottsdad]

There is an argument to be made that publishing polls should be banned during an election campaign. I've never thought much about it until now - this, more than any other, has led to changes in campaign strategy.

[Cheese]

[scottsdad]

1 hour ago, Cheese said:

To be fair, that's a fantastic strategy. 

[Cheese]

1 minute ago, scottsdad said:

To be fair, that's a fantastic strategy. 

It's an effective strategy for winning an election for sure, but it's highly likely to run into serious problems pretty quickly.

[Leith Green]

49 minutes ago, Cheese said:

It's an effective strategy for winning an election for sure, but it's highly likely to run into serious problems pretty quickly.

FT earlier - its not that people love Labour and Starmer, its just they are not "tory".

[eez-eh]

34 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

FT earlier - it’s not that people love Labour and Starmer, it’s ljust they are not "tory".

Very misleading graph. It‘s only gone from 7.6 to 7.0 on a scale of 0-10.

Tbh I’m shocked it’s as high as that for either of the c***s.

[Highlandmagar]

Sky News, You Gov predicting a Labour majority of 212?? 

Utterly mind blowing.

 

 

[doulikefish]

34 minutes ago, Highlandmagar said:

Sky News, You Gov predicting a Labour majority of 212?? 

Utterly mind blowing.

 

 

Is that the polling company owned by the tories?

I think they are trying to scare folk 

[Highlandmagar]

7 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Is that the polling company owned by the tories?

I think they are trying to scare folk 

Quite possibly. My own reflection on it are that Labour will have a majority. I think in double figures. 40 to 90.

[GordonS]

7 hours ago, orfc said:

Yeh certainly wasn't many complaints on here when the SNP won 56 out of 59 seats on half the vote, if anything it was more like celebrations

And till recently the SNP were still saying more than half the seats was a mandate for independence when we knew it only needed about 35% of the vote

Still, K-DAY minus 1

The morning after the 2015 SNP landslide Nicola Sturgeon took part in a joint press conference with other party leaders including the English & Welsh Greens calling for PR. The SNP has never had any other position than support for PR.

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, doulikefish said:

Is that the polling company owned by the tories?

I think they are trying to scare folk 

No, they're not owned by the Tories. They are also just amount the most accurate pollster in elections over the past decade.

[Fullerene]

17 hours ago, GordonS said:

Labour predicted to win 75% of the seats in parliament off 42% of the vote, which Survation notes would potentially make us the least representative democracy in the world, and still nobody is talking about how the electoral system is a total joke.

Which means their majority is built on a house of cards.  Labour will act like their position is unassailable and pretend they have 75% of the vote.

However the Tories could win another election with a totally different 42%.

Personally I suspect the Tories will stay in opposition until they choose a leader whose name is currently unknown.  Then they can pretend they have learnt their lesson and are ready to offer something new.  When I say new, I actually mean old but who cares about the detail.

[GordonS]

7 hours ago, scottsdad said:

There is an argument to be made that publishing polls should be banned during an election campaign. I've never thought much about it until now - this, more than any other, has led to changes in campaign strategy.

Completely agree. They reduce it to a horse race instead of a debate about ideas. They lead people to vote in different ways than they otherwise would. I'd ban them from the dissolution of parliament. 

[MazzyStar]

6 minutes ago, GordonS said:

No, they're not owned by the Tories. They are also just amount the most accurate pollster in elections over the past decade.

It was literally founded by Nadhim Zahawi and Stephan Shakespeare (the former owner of owner of conservativehome) and he is still the CEO. 

[BFTD]

3 hours ago, GordonS said:

The morning after the 2015 SNP landslide Nicola Sturgeon took part in a joint press conference with other party leaders including the English & Welsh Greens calling for PR. The SNP has never had any other position than support for PR.

Well, at least he's managed to get one bite, other than from me laughing at his astonishingly poor trolling.

Seriously, he's been trying to pretend we're all upset about Labour punting the Tories out of office for months now. I'm more upset about the Lib Dems gaining seats than the average poster on here is about Labour finally getting back into office.

[GordonS]

1 minute ago, BFTD said:

Well, at least he's managed to get one bite, other than from me laughing at his astonishingly poor trolling.

Seriously, he's been trying to pretend we're all upset about Labour punting the Tories out of office for months now. I'm more upset about the Lib Dems gaining seats than the average poster on here is about Labour finally getting back into office.

I can understand why some folk might misinterpret the criticism of Labour though. With the Tories, you know they're going to shill for the uber rich, they're going to underfund public services, blow a dogwhistle on immigration and feather their own nests. That's what the party is for and it's what their voters expect. But Labour, they're supposed to be the good guys. They're supposed to at least attempt to make the country fairer. They're not even in office and already they're a let-down, and everyone knows it's worse to be the subject of disappointment than anger.

[Cheese]