H_B Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Sadly I think that may be true. Indeed. It's quite amusing that Nats have claimed that Brown and Cameron's intervention really swung things away from them .. it's a bit like David Haye blaming that toe injury for being battered by Klitschko. I guess whatever gets you through the night without coming to the conclusion you were utterly annhiliated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 Indeed. It's quite amusing that Nats have claimed that Brown and Cameron's intervention really swung things away from them .. it's a bit like David Haye blaming that toe injury for being battered by Klitschko. I guess whatever gets you through the night without coming to the conclusion you were utterly annhiliated. The AV referendum was an utter annhiliation, Nixon/McGovern was an utter annihiliation - this wasn't knife edge but it was still close, and there were, based on the limited, imperfect exit polling a considerable chunk (20%) of no voters who said extra powers was a big consideration for them, put in context with Curtice's repeated SSAS findings and the Panelbase poll conducted after the referendum it's clear, firstly that the constitutional ambition of a plurality of Scots - Devo Max, defined as all but foreign and defence - has not been achieved and secondly that the language deployed by the likes of Brown in those final few days were an attempt to imply that it would be, which has then been rowed back on furiously to represent an incredibly underwhelming posiiton somewhere between the minimalist positions of Labour and the Tories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Indeed. It's quite amusing that Nats have claimed that Brown and Cameron's intervention really swung things away from them .. it's a bit like David Haye blaming that toe injury for being battered by Klitschko. I guess whatever gets you through the night without coming to the conclusion you were utterly annhiliated. Is this a personal opinion or do you have actual evidence to suggest this wasn't the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Is this a personal opinion or do you have actual evidence to suggest this wasn't the case? It is impossible to determine whether this was or was not the case. Unless you ask everyone who voted No whether they would have also done so had there not been "The Pledge". I have my suspicions that this made no difference at all, but that can only be guesswork. In the same way as it is impossible to determine whether the No vote was because Nicola Sturgeon lied on EU membership, Alex Salmond lied about having received legal advice or any other aspects of the campaign over several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The AV referendum was an utter annhiliation, Nixon/McGovern was an utter annihiliation - this wasn't knife edge but it was still close, Was it? The gap was massive - 400,000! I don't think any Nat in the lead up to the voting day had any thoughts that it was going to be such an utter destruction for them. I think even the most pessimistic on the Thursday would have imagined that they'd get at least in the 45-50 percent grouping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 Was it? The gap was massive - 400,000! I don't think any Nat in the lead up to the voting day had any thoughts that it was going to be such an utter destruction for them. I think even the most pessimistic on the Thursday would have imagined that they'd get at least in the 45-50 percent grouping. The gap was 10%. It's not massive or overwhelming, it wasn't an annihilation, decimation, destruction, totalling or crushing. It was a defeat, a defeat narrow enough to keep the issue alive, but not narrow enough to force real devolution out of Westminster. It's not gone for a 'generation' or a lifetime or whatever. The issue will be at the forefront of Scottish politics at least through to May and possibly beyond, depending on events, and any future referendum will occur with the yes vote starting from a much stronger base than last time, and with an electorate who will remember the prior events and be able to gauge for themselves exactly how much Westmisnter can be trusted to deliver on it's promises. None of that sounds like the kind of decimation that would have you running fromt he field ne'er to return again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The gap was 10%. It's not massive or overwhelming, it wasn't an annihilation, decimation, destruction, totalling or crushing. It was a defeat, a defeat narrow enough to keep the issue alive, but not narrow enough to force real devolution out of Westminster. It's not gone for a 'generation' or a lifetime or whatever. The issue will be at the forefront of Scottish politics at least through to May and possibly beyond, depending on events, and any future referendum will occur with the yes vote starting from a much stronger base than last time, and with an electorate who will remember the prior events and be able to gauge for themselves exactly how much Westmisnter can be trusted to deliver on it's promises. None of that sounds like the kind of decimation that would have you running fromt he field ne'er to return again. I always like calm posts deconstructing HB's hysterical wailings "crushed! destroyed! utterly annihilated!" Really highlights what a trolling mess he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The gap was 10%. It's not massive or overwhelming, it wasn't an annihilation, decimation, destruction, totalling or crushing. It was a defeat, a defeat narrow enough to keep the issue alive, but not narrow enough to force real devolution out of Westminster. It's not gone for a 'generation' or a lifetime or whatever. The issue will be at the forefront of Scottish politics at least through to May and possibly beyond, depending on events, and any future referendum will occur with the yes vote starting from a much stronger base than last time, and with an electorate who will remember the prior events and be able to gauge for themselves exactly how much Westmisnter can be trusted to deliver on it's promises. None of that sounds like the kind of decimation that would have you running fromt he field ne'er to return again. Did you, or did you not, expect the gap to be significant closer than the absolute chasm it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I always like calm posts deconstructing HB's hysterical wailings "crushed! destroyed! utterly annihilated!" Really highlights what a trolling mess he is. 'Marmalised' was my personal favourite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 Did you, or did you not, expect the gap to be significant closer than the absolute chasm it was? I was calling it at 45/55 to NO for a good few weeks before my heart over ruled my head, but what that has to do with your argument is beyond me. Is it true that Yes were defeated? Of course it is. Is it true that the margin of defeat was high enough to let Westminster relax slightly in terms of offering further devolved powers? Yes it is. Is it true that Yes were defeated to the point where the issue is dead and buried? No, it isn't. In fact the main positive outcome for Yes from this campaign has been to politicise a great many people and to ensure that a second referendum is starting from a strong base of 45%, rather than the meagre third or less it had when this whole thing kicked off, regardless of your use of language or even my pre result predictions (which I'm still certain are tangential at best to the point you were making earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I wonder what the predictions from the unionists on here were from when the referendum was called up until a few months before. I doubt any of them had Yes at anywhere near 45%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I was always 55/45 whenever I declared a position(even as a NO voter posting against Swampy all those months ago) but I still convinced myself that YES would/could win to varying degrees in the lead up to the referendum, it's human nature, I've went to Somerset plenty of times thinking Ayr would/could beat European giants back in the day, sometimes I was correct most times I was wrong. I think 45% was a good result in hindsight, if YES had all the backing and NO had the Sun day Herald I've no doubts that YES would've won by a landslide not a 5% swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Well, feck me sideways and call me Clarence. Jamaldo, for quite possibly the first time this year, has displayed something other than his usual "heads gone" style M.O. and is speaking the most sense out of all the Nats in this thread. Have a greenie, and keep up the good work. At least you haven't come across as really patronising in that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I wonder what the predictions from the unionists on here were from when the referendum was called up until a few months before. I doubt any of them had Yes at anywhere near 45%. You're welcome to check mine. I had Yes at 47% all thr way through, including in the predictions threads before the event. Only Lex got anywhere near the correct result. Edit - in fact, New Born Bairn got it almost spot on! http://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php/topic/216678-independance-referendum-final-score-prediction/ http://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php/topic/215261-referendum-result-prediction-game/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The unionists were scoffing that we wouldn't even get 40% (particularly after the poll which only showed Yes at 37% in early August), until the polls started closing and they collectively shat their wee pants just like Cameron, Miliband et al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The unionists were scoffing that we wouldn't even get 40% (particularly after the poll which only showed Yes at 37% in early August Were they? Which unionists were these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 You're welcome to check mine. I had Yes at 47% all thr way through, including in the predictions threads before the event. Only Lex got anywhere near the correct result. Edit - in fact, New Born Bairn got it almost spot on! http://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php/topic/216678-independance-referendum-final-score-prediction/ http://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php/topic/215261-referendum-result-prediction-game/ Lex predicted 60-40 with other people predicting bang on. You'll find that the predictions generally matched the polls with a bit of blind optimism on both sides. If you go right back to the first prediction thread I'm sure it is a bit more skewed because of the polls at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 If you go right back to the first prediction thread I'm sure it is a bit more skewed because of the polls at that time I'm not sure it will be. I think most people knew there'd be a levelling out from earlier polling nearer the time, especially as DKs would obviously not be included in the final count. I was certainly (wrongly as it turned out) always consistent on the 53/47 final result, even in the early days. I gave the Yes campaign a bit too much credit, and underestimated the Scottish voters commitment to the union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ford prefect Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Always nice to see the no voters main point of happiness is "smashing" the yes nothing about the benefits of the union Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tubbs Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Always nice to see the no voters main point of happiness is "smashing" the yes nothing about the benefits of the union I think that's the position of any status quo versus substantial proposal scenario. The proposers have to prove their case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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