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General Election 2015


Ludo*1

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If Labour don't want to cooperate with the SNP, then the Tories almost certainly will be in power for the foreseeable and that's on Labour.

So you're saying that if we vote labour, we'll get Tories?

Aww man.

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It sounds like you fall more under the liberal democrat umbrella than New Labour to be honest, but that's beside the point.

Just so I've got it clear in my head - do you back austerity at all? I get that it's not quite as easy as saying your left, right or middle (I'm much the same as you I think - lean more right on the ecomony, left for pretty much everything else).

Hope you don't mind me asking btw - just trying to work out your thought process.

Yes, I reluctantly accept that austerity is probably necessary. I think I've got a left-wing heart and a right wing brain (studying economics at uni robbed me of my comfortable far-left position I held whilst at school).

I find myself to the right of most Labour people I know, and to the left of my family and colleagues.

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If Labour don't want to cooperate with the SNP, then the Tories almost certainly will be in power for the foreseeable and that's on Labour.

It would be just like the current shower of shysters and career gravy train robbers that constitute Labour to go in a massive sulk and miss the chance to govern because of their blind hatred of the SNP.

The ultimate act of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

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Yes, I reluctantly accept that austerity is probably necessary. I think I've got a left-wing heart and a right wing brain (studying economics at uni robbed me of my comfortable far-left position I held whilst at school).

I find myself to the right of most Labour people I know, and to the left of my family and colleagues.

There is more than one school of economics, as I'm sure your aware. The necessity, or not, of austerity is linked to whatever economic theory you cleave to.

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It would be just like the current shower of shysters and career gravy train robbers that constitute Labour to go in a massive sulk and miss the chance to govern because of their blind hatred of the SNP.

The ultimate act of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

A slim Labour win and a win for the SNP in Scotland would throw up a fascinating sceario really, providing the likes of the SNP stay resolute with their demands. Would be a real spotlight on how much Labour cherishes austerity, Trident etc.

I suspect Labour trying their hand at a minority, with the Conservatives supporting them on the such issues might be the outcome. Which will of course take Scottish Independence forward quicker than anything the SNP could do with a bloc of MPs.

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I think you provide a prime example of the biased media reporting combined with, generally, the differing agendas in Scottish and English politics.

To claim to be centre left and aligned to Jim Murphy shows the impact that the media has had on you. Jim Murphy is further right than Miliband and not far short of Cameron. The Scottish Centre Left is dominated by Sturgeon and the SNP and there is pretty much no significant representation of this within English Politics. I would guess that the media influence mentioned above has fostered a resentment of "Nationalists" or "separatists" which would desist you from any support for Sturgeon and probably even a significant loathing/ fear.

The alcohol at football debate is not setting any agenda, it is a sideshow that the majority of Scots will discuss their views on but won't form any political allegience for. The referendum has resulted in an awareness of far more pressing political and social concerns than this.

The womens prison example was a pathetic, last minute jump on a well established bandwagon that had rightly forced an SNP Government rethink. When it became clear the decision was to be changed, Labour started to make noises on it so it could claim a high ground that simply wasn't theirs. It was, in fact an excellent example of a Government willing to engage with it's people and alter previously committed policy in the face of robust arguments from expert advisors and campaigners. An indication perhaps of why 8 years into government the SNP still command very significant support in Scotland.

Labour, supported by BBC Scotland and the Daily Record, are trying to weaponise the Scottish NHS. They have already been caught fiddling statistics and embarrassing gaffes like protesting about staffing levels outside a closed medical facility. The media keep pointing out that the SNP are missing their targets whilst totally failing to mention that on pretty much every meaningful measure the Scottish NHS is now performing better, and contains more resources than it did when the SNP came to power in 2007. It is also currently recieving a higher public satisfaction rating than the NHS in England or Wales. Is it perfect? No. Is it in Crisis? Absolutely not and reporting that it is completely undermines the excellent work the people of the NHS do every single day! The fact that it isn't even a Westminster issue means, that for GE2015 purposes, it is also a sideshow.

The only GE2015 argument Scottish Labour have is that a vote for SNP means less Labour MP's and a greater chance of David Cameron being Prime Minister again. A theory that is relatively sound regardless of how light on policy and desperate it makes them seem. It is however easily countered by the fact that every Conservative Government since the 70's has been elected despite Scotland voting Labour, the most recent example being in 2010 when 41/59 Scottish MP's were Labour. A further problem with this argument is that Cameron has higher approval ratings in Scotland than Miliband (more accurate would be he has lower disapproval ratings...) so Scotland doesn't seem all that fussed that, in a two man choice, Cameron might win. However, in keeping with Scottish Labour's election campaign thus far, there are examples from several individual sources that they would encourage a tactical vote for the Tories or would prefer to enter coalition with them rather than the SNP.... incredible that they have shot down their only real GE2015 argument. I would also respectfully suggest that is a slap in the puss for "left leaning centrists" like yourself.

Finally, for Sturgeon being "out her depth" on QT. I can guarantee that not one SNP vote was lost during that show, not one. She stood absolutely resolute in her beliefs relating to Trident and Austerity despite an extremely hostile panel and Audience. I was genuinely surprised at the level of support for Nuclear weapons in England and found myself despairing at the financially illiterate argument of "we need more troops", "we need nuclear weapons" and " we need to end Austerity".

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Absolutely spot on. Excellent post, great summary.

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A slim Labour win and a win for the SNP in Scotland would throw up a fascinating sceario really, providing the likes of the SNP stay resolute with their demands. Would be a real spotlight on how much Labour cherishes austerity, Trident etc.

I suspect Labour trying their hand at a minority, with the Conservatives supporting them on the such issues might be the outcome. Which will of course take Scottish Independence forward quicker than anything the SNP could do with a bloc of MPs.

If Labour can assume government with SNP support, whether or not they have the largest number of seats, they will be desperate to take it. The alternative would be a further GE with absolutely no guarantee that the Tories would not claw back some of their losses. That's not to mention the financial cost of running a further campaign.

Whilst it will be a minority government it will be one that cannot be seen to be relying on Tory support. A resolute SNP group could then create a no confidence situation that the Tories would be obliged to support (it would be electoral suicide not to).

One other interesting feature will be Milliband. Whilst he's not popular if he can lead Labour to any sort of government it will be hard to ditch him IMO. However I think there will be those in the PLP who will still be wanting rid of him. This potential internal fragility may make it easier for the SNP to negotiate with a minority Labour government.

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Best outcome for Scotland would be SNP win 40+ seats. Labour lead a minority government, without the SNP, and continue with their conservative policies. This will totally destroy labour in Scotland and would lead to the SNP calling for more powers etc etc.

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It would be just like the current shower of shysters and career gravy train robbers that constitute Labour to go in a massive sulk and miss the chance to govern because of their blind hatred of the SNP.

The ultimate act of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Nah, milliband will be on his knees begging to Salmond/Sturgeon if there is a whiff of a chance he will be PM

Pleasing

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If Milliband is not PM in May his political career is basically over. He will be replaced as leader and will either leave politics altogether or spend the rest of his political career on the back-benches - that's what's at stake for Milliband.

Yes he can run a minority government, but to do so you need to rely on other parties to get legislation through. That could very well mean he's heavily reliant on the SNP.

If the SNP don't get anything significant out of Labour they won't help, that's the bottom line. Milliband will have to make concessions to the SNP as he won't have any choice.

If Labour can't get budget's through then inevitably there will be another election within the 5 year term.

If the SNP are king-makers they hold all the aces

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Another campaigning mess by Labour:

http://wingsoverscotland.com/thrown-to-the-wolves/

It's inevitable that someone somewhere will make a complaint unfortunately. There are enough bitter people out there to do it I hope I am wrong, but how fucking stupid is it for these people to put themselves in such a very public sphere. It's their job FFS. And if they think the Labour Party will help them out should the worst come to the worst then they're sorely deluded. Ultimately it all stems from Labour exploiting folk like this. I have seen one or two others who have allowed themselves to be used for publicity in their uniforms who may very well be sitting very uncomfortably at the moment due to their own stupidity.

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Torys will win this election hands down, labour are a disgrace.

You assume all UKIP supporters are former Tories. Don't ignore the working class "I've voted Labour all my life" racists that are/were attracted to UKIP.

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