When will indyref2 happen?

[doulikefish]

Indy is all about the oil price seemingly

[AUFC90]

10 minutes ago, AyrExile said:

This was based on a yes vote being successful as you mentioned earlier. What was the oil price like 9 months ago and how would good would the trading books look for the period. The yes side also had no interest in the financial community despite us having a decent sized industry in Edinburgh. With all the uncertainty and currency nonsense the bulk of this would have vanished down south. London is also a global centre and even when business is lost through brexit I still expect it will be the biggest financial centre in Europe. 

Scotland has a better trade deficit than the UK and actually props up it's current account with food and drink exports and oil exports, this improves credit ratings as well as produces tax. I never believed the likes of standard life anyway, preaching( not for the first time) that they would f**k off down south whilst building a 700m shiny new HQ. It would be hilarious watching the mental gymnastics of the likes of Standard Life and co if the UK is out the single market and Scotland is having a referendum which will keep them in it. Now that would be funny.

Edited December 20, 2016 by AUFC90

[AUFC90]

7 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Indy is all about the oil price seemingly

Yep,ironically it's directly down to the Uk's mismanagement of the oil and gas sector that the oil price is such a big factor. That OK though, just give them another 40 years of it. All will end just fine

[AntonyP]

21 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

Who made it clear ? Politicians during a referendum campaign ? Means absolutely noting. If you read my comment I said by this time Dec 2016 Scotland would have been independent for roughly 9 months and i firmly believe that in that timescale( Sept 2014 to now) we would have joined the EU with relative ease.So you genuinely believe that a western european country which is relatively rich and is larger than about 10 EU members would literally not be able to gain entry to the EU because it had a democratic vote to leave an EU member, with permission by said member ? Bearing in mind that Scotland has been paying into the Eu, as part of the UK for much longer than the majority of it's members. We aint Turkey and we aint on the fringes of Europe. How many countries have satisfied ALL criteria that have joined in the last 20 years ?

Who made it clear?  The European Commission did in 2014, in reply to a letter sent by the Scottish Parliament.

http://www.parliament.scot/S4_EuropeanandExternalRelationsCommittee/Inquiries/Letter_from_Viviane_Reding_Vice_President_of_the_European_Commission_dated_20_March_2014__pdf.pdf

The time frame published in the White Paper was complete nonsense, like many things contained in that book. The reality of Scotland becoming Independent would have taken a lot longer, it massively underestimated the work required to actually make it happen. If the public had voted for Independence in 2014, I don't believe Scotland would even be Independent yet.

I didn't say Scotland would not be able to join the EU, I'm just saying it will not be as straight forward as Independence supporters like to claim it will be, who for some reason seem to think that the backdoor would just be left open for Scotland to easily enter. All I am saying is that Scotland would have to fulfill the entry criteria like every other country that wanted/want to join.

Scotland currently meets the criteria thanks to being part of the UK, to join the EU as in Independent country it would need to satisfy all of the criteria all on it's own, which will include criteria it currently does meet, but also criteria it did not need to as it was not a member state itself, such as having a central bank.

[AntonyP]

37 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

We can only see if ROI will be bound by EU trade agreements then. I suspect you'll be surprised.

Sticking by the "grass is greener" theory usually fails because the grass is usually never greener on the other side.

Good luck trying to convince people to vote for Independence when you can't bring yourself to face reality.

[Ivo den Bieman]

all seems a bit irrelevant and self-indulgent at the moment, does it not?

realise it's a bit heretical to say around here and my support for an independent Scotland has not wavered an iota, but still...in the context of Trump, Syria, impending climate disaster, it seems very small beer indeed at present.

I am sure it will happen but in the present very worrying /dangerous geopolitical climate, doesn't seem very important, either.

I also get the strong sense that the electorate are referendumed out for at least a few years and it will be a while yet before the conditions shift again in our favour.

[AntonyP]

22 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

Scotland has a better trade deficit than the UK and actually props up it's current account with food and drink exports and oil exports, this improves credit ratings as well as produces tax. I never believed the likes of standard life anyway, preaching( not for the first time) that they would f**k off down south whilst building a 700m shiny new HQ. It would be hilarious watching the mental gymnastics of the likes of Standard Life and co if the UK is out the single market and Scotland is having a referendum which will keep them in it. Now that would be funny.

They wouldn't have to move all operations, they would just need to move their registered address and the important parts of the business that needs protecting from a potentially volatile economy. Companies are going to do what it best for them, which involves ensuring their continued existence. If this means moving from one country to another that is what will happen.

When the UK actually exits the EU, a few companies will move to mainland Europe for their own protections. 

[AUFC90]

2 minutes ago, AntonyP said:

Who made it clear?  The European Commission did in 2014, in reply to a letter sent by the Scottish Parliament.

http://www.parliament.scot/S4_EuropeanandExternalRelationsCommittee/Inquiries/Letter_from_Viviane_Reding_Vice_President_of_the_European_Commission_dated_20_March_2014__pdf.pdf

The commission wouldn't even be in the room. it's the member states that decide, some were all for it such as Denmark, other like Spain weren't quite as keen. It's most certainly a special case and i've no doubt would be treated as such.

The time frame published in the White Paper was complete nonsense, like many things contained in that book. The reality of Scotland becoming Independent would have taken a lot longer, it massively underestimated the work required to actually make it happen. If the public had voted for Independence in 2014, I don't believe Scotland would even be Independent yet.

In your opinion.....

I didn't say Scotland would not be able to join the EU, I'm just saying it will not be as straight forward as Independence supporters like to claim it will be, who for some reason seem to think that the backdoor would just be left open for Scotland to easily enter. All I am saying is that Scotland would have to fulfill the entry criteria like every other country that wanted/want to join.

If every country had to fulfill all entry criteria the EU would literally be about half the size.

Scotland currently meets the criteria thanks to being part of the UK, to join the EU as in Independent country it would need to satisfy all of the criteria all on it's own, which will include criteria it currently does meet, but also criteria it did not need to as it was not a member state itself, such as having a central bank.

I'm sure we could set up a central bank ffs

I just love how everyone that voted no is so sure what would happen based on statements from lying polticians during a referendum. Fact is an area that has been part of the EU for 40 years has never succeeded from a member state before. You make it out like we are Turkey or some semi corrupt eastern european country that would have to jump through hoops for 10 years to get in. Not going to happen, half a million EU nationals live here, we have been contributing and benefitting from EU membership for longer than 65% of the countries in the EU. the member states would get round the table and compromises would be made. It will be even easier the next time seen as the UK will be out.

Anyway, no point going round in circles and it's getting late. You think the world will cave in after a yes vote and i don't.

[AUFC90]

10 minutes ago, AntonyP said:

Sticking by the "grass is greener" theory usually fails because the grass is usually never greener on the other side.

Good luck trying to convince people to vote for Independence when you can't bring yourself to face reality.

What's the reality. That ROI will face tariffs from the UK ? Ok then 

[jakedee]

They wouldn't have to move all operations, they would just need to move their registered address and the important parts of the business that needs protecting from a potentially volatile economy. Companies are going to do what it best for them, which involves ensuring their continued existence. If this means moving from one country to another that is what will happen.
When the UK actually exits the EU, a few companies will move to mainland Europe for their own protections.

A few? Any Company faced with tariffs on exporting goods to their largest market will seriously consider moving " for their own protections"

[ayrmad]

4 hours ago, Loondave1 said:

Mmm .People that don't agree with you can f**ck of doon the road was one of the things i made assumptions based on.

Where have I mentioned they have to agree with me?

[AntonyP]

49 minutes ago, AUFC90 said:

Anyway, no point going round in circles and it's getting late. You think the world will cave in after a yes vote and i don't.

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The commission wouldn't even be in the room. it's the member states that decide, some were all for it such as Denmark, other like Spain weren't quite as keen. It's most certainly a special case and i've no doubt would be treated as such.

The Commission was just stating what the rules dictate, which would have an effect regardless of what the member states think. The member states do not have the power to over rule the rules of EU entry. Why would they agree to letting Scotland bypass the entry process? It is not in their interests to do so. Many of them have had to go through the process themselves so why would they let Scotland?

Scotland is not a special case, it is not an EU Member state, it is just part of a state that has never held membership and would have nothing stopping it from entering into the formal entry process. Wanting to be in the EU is not a special case.

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In your opinion.....

In many people's opinions... The only people that seem to think it was a credible time frame are independence supporters, and even some of them have not accepted it was unrealistic.

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If every country had to fulfill all entry criteria the EU would literally be about half the size.

I assume you are referring to existing members. They only had to fulfill the criteria at the time of joining. New entrants like Scotland would have to fulfill the criteria at the time of the attempted entry.

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I'm sure we could set up a central bank ffs

You could, and then you would have to wait for it to prove itself to be stable. Which would then delay how long it will take for Scotland to become a Member of the EU.

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I just love how everyone that voted no is so sure what would happen based on statements from lying polticians during a referendum.

It isn't from Politicians, it is from the research I conducted into the issue. Perhaps you should try doing the same then maybe you wouldn't keep repeating the total nonsens that the SNP had fed you.

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Fact is an area that has been part of the EU for 40 years has never succeeded from a member state before. You make it out like we are Turkey or some semi corrupt eastern european country that would have to jump through hoops for 10 years to get in.  Not going to happen, half a million EU nationals live here, we have been contributing and benefitting from EU membership for longer than 65% of the countries in the EU. the member states would get round the table and compromises would be made. It will be even easier the next time seen as the UK will be out.

That is because I have read what International Law and the EU have said on the matter. The document I posted states the EU's position, your the one ignoring that instead choosing to believe the SNP's claims. 

This is further complicated by the fact that the UK will have left the EU entirely before Sturgeon and Co brainwash enough people into leaving the UK.

What happens in regards to the EU nationals currently in the UK is unknown, they certainly aren't a bargaining chip towards Scotland being handed membership status without doing the work for it. In all honesty they will likely be granted permission to stay here following the UK's withdrawal from the UK.

But then this debate has been happening since 2013, if you haven't taken on board the reality in these 3 years, I don't expect you to now either.

[John Lambies Doos]

Hopefully soon. Cause unionists are wankers

[Loondave1]

Where have I mentioned they have to agree with me?

I just thought the suggestion that everyone without your mindset could get out of Scotland like it was the Wild West implied you had a problem with non compliance.That and the running them out of town.Presumably on a horse firing gunshots into the air....

[kevthedee]

"You spout so much shite, I'm sick to the back teeth of Scotland being governed by parties we clearly didn't want and having to live with major decisions we clearly didn't want, then the thickos have the cheek to place the blame for our economic performance on Scotland and those who choose to live here, once we vote YES in indyref2 those that don't like it can f**k off and leave those that are left to start from scratch and make Scotland a better place, I'll happily run any of my family that don't like it down the road free of charge."I just assumed from the general tone of your post you had an issue with people who didn't agree with you on Indy.Having read it again i can see its a tear strewn olive branch to Indy2 NO voters.An invite to put everything behind us and have a big group hug.

I fully expect Scotland to vote yes in the next referendum,I would hope that no matter how you voted that everyone would put differences aside and pull together to ensure Scotland has the best future possible.

I would question anyone's commitment to Scotland if they left just because of the result that would be rather childish.

[Glen Sannox]

Indy is all about the oil price seemingly

Well it certainly seemed that way on the run up to the referendum. It's all the "yes" campaign talked about.

[mjw]

Its mintmas!

[hehawhehaw]

16 hours ago, AUFC90 said:

17 hours ago, AUFC90 said:

Theresa May was saying it again today. If we are independent we won't get into to the EU. Oh and the absolute best one of the day was that we wouldn't get access to the 'UK single market'. Anyone that seriously believes that Scotland and England wont have tariff free trade with each other is off their heads or thick or a combination of the two.

 

17 hours ago, hehawhehaw said:

Why has the UK got a hard border with France?

^^^^This guy.

and all the snppeabrainedgreetinfacedhalfwits like yourself.

 

[ArabianKnight]

Is that another HB alias I see?

Desperate stuff.

[Colkitto]

We keep getting told we cannot win indyref2 To lose again would finish us off for a generation at least. So why are the Unionists so against having another one? 

Surely if they're so confident of winning then they should be backing to hold one as soon as possible...