When will indyref2 happen?

[renton]

7 minutes ago, Lex said:

I'm pro indyref2 and always have been, can't wait to get in that booth and vote no again.

The anti indyref2 amongst unionist parties is more party political point scoring than fear of losing anything I think.  The SNP repeatedly said once in a generation and even once in a lifetime during the campaign, so for the Tories and Slab its an easy move to attack that to portray the SNP as a party not to be trusted. 

Seems to have worked aswell, SNP support is down everywhere.

1. The SNP position was never once in a generation. That was an opinion offered by Alex Salmond. It was never debated, put forward or voted on as a position by the party at conference, never formed part of the various manifestos it was elected on, was never agreed with the wider Yes movement and wasn't on offer at the ballot box in '14.

2. If they weren't scared of losing then they wouldn't be trying to score points off of it. Indeed, if opposition to Indyref 2 was the chief reason behind SNP seat losses to the Tories then it's in Davidson's best interests to keep it alive as long as possible - at least until she can get a safe seat in England - as her career would be over without it.

[oneteaminglasgow]

The Independence movement and the SNP are also not synonymous. I'm sure there's plenty of people who, like myself for example, are pro-independence and yet wouldn't always support the SNP. There were a few on here who voted for unionist parties despite being pro-indy so you can't measure support for independence purely through the prism of how the SNP are doing.

[budmiester1]

www.gov.scot/publications/2013/11/9348/2

Paragraph 5 line 2 written by Alec Salmond
" a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way"

[Lex]

8 minutes ago, renton said:

Aye, the settled will until it isn't ( by the way, those Angus Reid questions are abominably leading). Scottish nationalism was once the preserve of fringe tub thumpers. Not any more. There is a certain inevitability about a 2nd Indy Ref, partly because the first one did not answer the question with any degree of satisfaction (it's as much about winning the peace as winning the campaign) and partly because the current UK situation around Brexit is unstable. What happens beyond that is anyone's guess. Demographically we are moving towards a situation where the hardcore Unionist vote is dissipating in favour of a more skeptical and open populace, many of whom did vote Yes. On the other hand a 2nd Indyref loss would certainly finish it for a while.

Certainly don't agree with that.  It's clearly not going to happen before the next Scottish Parliament elections now.  Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but it's hard to imagine a retreating SNP holding on to a very slim pro indy majority in Holyrood in 2021.  if they don't get that then it's off till 2027 at the earliest.. .. I mean it may happen again at some point in the future but inevitable?

 

2 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Did they f**k and they don't speak for me anyway.

Alex Salmond 2014:

' This is a once in a generation, perhaps even once in a life time opportunity '

I'm not one of these people that spew with rage at that quote.  I can certainly see why he said it and he can see why they've changed their tune after it but there's no doubt it's cost the SNP seats at the last 3 elections.  If there ever is an indy ref 2 though, the Yes side couldn't play that card again.

Indeed that could be a good campaign line for No.  ' If you're unsure, vote no, if you change your mind you'll get another chance soon '.  Yes could hardly argue against that

[1320Lichtie]

The Independence movement and the SNP are also not synonymous. I'm sure there's plenty of people who, like myself for example, are pro-independence and yet wouldn't always support the SNP. There were a few on here who voted for unionist parties despite being pro-indy so you can't measure support for independence purely through the prism of how the SNP are doing.

I could've very easily voted Labour that last election despite being a huge yes. I am bitter however and refuse to let the actions of Slab before the referendum go.

Last time my mates, all 100 percent yes, voted SNP, this time it was about 60/40 split between SNP and Labour. Labour will have a huge number of votes from Indy supporters. Painting it as a pro Union vote is totally false.

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, Lex said:

Certainly don't agree with that.  It's clearly not going to happen before the next Scottish Parliament elections now.  Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but it's hard to imagine a retreating SNP holding on to a very slim pro indy majority in Holyrood in 2021.  if they don't get that then it's off till 2027 at the earliest.. .. I mean it may happen again at some point in the future but inevitable?

 

Alex Salmond 2014:

' This is a once in a generation, perhaps even once in a life time opportunity '

I'm not one of these people that spew with rage at that quote.  I can certainly see why he said it and he can see why they've changed their tune after it but there's no doubt it's cost the SNP seats at the last 3 elections.  If there ever is an indy ref 2 though, the Yes side couldn't play that card again.

Indeed that could be a good campaign line for No.  ' If you're unsure, vote no, if you change your mind you'll get another chance soon '.  Yes could hardly argue against that

So once.

[ayrmad]

The say so of one individual out of 1.6 million appears to hold more weight than a Holyrood vote, UK democracy in action.

[Loondave1]

I would presume in the event unlikely though it is of an Indy re run WM will attach some strings as regards Indy3 Indy4 Indy5 etc etc.The negative effect on Scotland's economy caused by constant Indy demands is a high price for flogging the dead horse of Indy every few years.

[NotThePars]

11 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

 

I could've very easily voted Labour that last election despite being a huge yes. I am bitter however and refuse to let the actions of Slab before the referendum go.

Last time my mates, all 100 percent yes, voted SNP, this time it was about 60/40 split between SNP and Labour. Labour will have a huge number of votes from Indy supporters. Painting it as a pro Union vote is totally false.

 

 

Was the same with my group of mates. Every single person I know was agonising over whether to give Corbyn a vote or stick by the SNP and many, including myself, didn't decide till the week and even the day of the election. From what I've gathered most of us still support a referendum and independence.

 

More generally after the absolute shagging everyone's predictions have taken these past few years I'm surprised anyone's confidently kicking indyref into the long grass. Literally nobody thought we would have a Tory majority again, Brexit, Donald Trump winning the US election, Leicester convincingly winning the Premier League and Corbyn taking Labour as close as he did. The world's gone mad, maybe we'll UDI tomorrow and descend into sectarian civil war.

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, Loondave1 said:

I would presume in the event unlikely though it is of an Indy re run WM will attach some strings as regards Indy3 Indy4 Indy5 etc etc.The negative effect on Scotland's economy caused by constant Indy demands is a high price for flogging the dead horse of Indy every few years.

Can you highlight all the negative effects please.

[Loondave1]

I don't think they did enough to try to capture the remain vote, they just sort of assumed remain voters would naturally endorse independence in the event of leave winning. The issue they have faced is the group who voted remain last year and no in 2014 are a sizeable one who have remained unconvinced by independence.

Exactly ! "Assumed" was the glaring flaw."Ass/u/me/d makes an Ass out of u & me" as i remember from Brent style work meetings.

[renton]

14 minutes ago, Lex said:

Certainly don't agree with that.  It's clearly not going to happen before the next Scottish Parliament elections now.  Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but it's hard to imagine a retreating SNP holding on to a very slim pro indy majority in Holyrood in 2021.  if they don't get that then it's off till 2027 at the earliest.. .. I mean it may happen again at some point in the future but inevitable?

 

Alex Salmond 2014:

' This is a once in a generation, perhaps even once in a life time opportunity '

I'm not one of these people that spew with rage at that quote.  I can certainly see why he said it and he can see why they've changed their tune after it but there's no doubt it's cost the SNP seats at the last 3 elections.  If there ever is an indy ref 2 though, the Yes side couldn't play that card again.

Indeed that could be a good campaign line for No.  ' If you're unsure, vote no, if you change your mind you'll get another chance soon '.  Yes could hardly argue against that

I don't think you can say 'clearly' not going to happen. She already has the mandate from Holyrood to pursue it, and a hard Brexit makes it more attractive to middle class voters as well.

The only sure fire way it goes off the table is removal of the causus belli: Hard Brexit for Scotland.

[ayrmad]

4 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:

Exactly ! "Assumed" was the glaring flaw."Ass/u/me/d makes an Ass out of u & me" as i remember from Brent style work meetings.

They were trying to be all things to all people, didn't work.

[Loondave1]

Can you highlight all the negative effects please.

0.4% annual growth lagging behind UK as a whole.Hard to prove as you could claim being within UK is holding Scotland back.However imho constant uncertainty can only be bad for business and i will stick with that.

[oneteaminglasgow]

1 minute ago, Loondave1 said:

0.4% annual growth lagging behind UK as a whole.Hard to prove as you could claim being within UK is holding Scotland back.However imho constant uncertainty can only be bad for business and i will stick with that.

You're either wrong or lying.

https://news.gov.scot/news/scotlands-economic-performance

[DublinMagyar]

0.4% annual growth lagging behind UK as a whole.Hard to prove as you could claim being within UK is holding Scotland back.However imho constant uncertainty can only be bad for business and i will stick with that.

You haven't seen this morning's report on the Scottish economy then?

[Loondave1]

You're either wrong or lying.
https://news.gov.scot/news/scotlands-economic-performance

http://www.insider.co.uk/events/scotlands-economic-growth-04-per-10619655

[Lex]

1 hour ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

The Independence movement and the SNP are also not synonymous. I'm sure there's plenty of people who, like myself for example, are pro-independence and yet wouldn't always support the SNP. There were a few on here who voted for unionist parties despite being pro-indy so you can't measure support for independence purely through the prism of how the SNP are doing.

The same is true for the pro union movement.

There is many no voters who want a second referendum.  The no to indyref2 mantra that the pro union parties ran with during the election campaign is simply a bit of party political rhetoric that was successful in damaging the SNP.

It's far from representative of those Scottish voters who are passionate about Scotland remaining part of the UK.

Edited June 14, 2017 by Lex

[1320Lichtie]

The same is true for the pro union movement.
There is many no voters who want a second referendum.  The no to indyref2 mantra from the pro union parties ran with during the election campaign is simply a bit of party political rhetoric that was successful in damaging the SNP.
It's far from representative of those Scottish voters who are passionate about Scotland remaining part of the UK.

Yes. So you realise you havering on about pro Union Party votes and pro Indy party votes is a lot of pish.

And using passionate as a word to describe your feelings about London ruling over your country is truly bizarre, will never understand that viewpoint.

[Loondave1]

 

Yes. So you realise you havering on about pro Union Party votes and pro Indy party votes is a lot of pish.

 

And using passionate as a word to describe your feelings about London ruling over your country is truly bizarre, will never understand that viewpoint.

Because you and your buds "will never understand that view point" is why you will suffer continual rejection by the majority in Scotland and remain baffled as to why.Things are moving on and the SNP need to keep up with the public mood outside their own bubble or it's back to pre 2014 support levels.