When will indyref2 happen?

[RedRob72]

The plan is to wait until after the negotiations of Brexit have taken shape, not to wait until we've sailed merrily of the end of the world.

It's perhaps the role of all parties then, including the SNP to make sure that doesn't happen. She's clearly seen that shouting from the sidelines, and banging the Indy drum won't make a blind bit of difference over the next 18 months.

[RedRob72]

Basically for ose of you who voted No, you can now relax for another 18 months to 2 years. At that point we will be in 2019 at least and that will probably be too late to go for IndyRef2 before the next Holyrood elections. I reckon she will go to the ballot box with IndyRef2 on the paper and ask for a mandate formit to happen in the next parliament. We are looking at 2022 at the earliest IMO.
Then it will have been 8 years. A few years too soon for me but probably a reasonable enough time given Brexit for the country to agree to go again.

Yep, seems about right!

[Ivo den Bieman]

The Tories have to own the toxic, incoherent shambles of Brexit. Let them hang themselves on their incompetence and hubris in the next coupe of years.

After the full implications of Brexit outside the single market become clear, Colonel Ruthie and her clueless Scottish Tory battalion will become about as welcome as Nazis at a barmitzvah, no atter how many silly photos Ruth has taken of herself in order to appear a "real person"..

That'll be the time to talk about independence referendums again.

I know its galling for the impatinent, but people are sick fed up of being asked to make big political decisions. The SNP have to reflect soberly on what was a shambles of a general election campaign not fought on the terrain of their choosing.  Genuine engagement with a wider Yes movement, after a period of reflection and (possibly) renewal of personnel behind the scenes, in readiness for re-activating referendum plans once the Brexit diaster starts to play out at full throttle, will give those wanting an independent Scotland the best chance of success next time around.

Brexit and its consequnces are going to be really ugly in the next decade. Given all the stuff happening at present- Brexit, Grenfell, Corbynmania, the SNP and independence are just being drowned out. The wider movement should use the noise being generated elsewhere to re-build and re-focus- quietly. 2-3 years is a long way away and who knows what lunacy the Tories and their bigoted allies will have visited on us by then.

Edited June 27, 2017 by Ivo den Bieman

[renton]

39 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Basically for ose of you who voted No, you can now relax for another 18 months to 2 years. At that point we will be in 2019 at least and that will probably be too late to go for IndyRef2 before the next Holyrood elections. I reckon she will go to the ballot box with IndyRef2 on the paper and ask for a mandate formit to happen in the next parliament. We are looking at 2022 at the earliest IMO.

Then it will have been 8 years. A few years too soon for me but probably a reasonable enough time given Brexit for the country to agree to go again.

You think? It doesn't have to be another 2 year campaign. The EU ref was done in 6 months, assuming a fair bit of groundwork between now and then, they probably could get it done with a shorter campaign prior to the '21 election.

[JMDP]

Decent statement.

I've mentioned on the other thread but I really think it's time that labour supporters in Scotland ask themselves difficult questions.

Corbyn was rejected by the electorate. Yes, he didn't do as disastrously as many thought, but a real, genuine progressive UK was an option and it was miles away from forming a government against the biggest clusterfuck of a campaign ever run.

Do Labour "progressives" genuinely want to stay in a union where Scotland will never be run in the way their politics would like? Is the union and nationalism more important to them than actually being able to take Scotland on a progressive path, where a centre left party can actually win and implement the type of fairer policies they support?

[renton]

46 minutes ago, RedRob72 said:

It's perhaps the role of all parties then, including the SNP to make sure that doesn't happen. She's clearly seen that shouting from the sidelines, and banging the Indy drum won't make a blind bit of difference over the next 18 months.

What is supposed to make a difference? You think May is suddenly going to open up an all party negotiating team? You think she's going to backtrack on the single market - something Corbyn is hardly a great believer in? While there is a parliamentary majority for both - and there is - then the SNP will be on the sidelines, regardless of the imminence or otherwise of another Indyref. For the SNP, this is an exercise in repositioning, not a wholesale change in mind. As Ivo says above, the Tories get to own Brexit for a bit longer, the SNP comeback after the summer and probably glide to the left to shore up that flank. Let some of the heat go out of the Indy Ref debate so denying Colonel Blimp and Deputy Dug a major line of attack and rebuild towards the still fairly probable IndyRef legislation in Autumn 18/19.

[Colkitto]

50 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Basically for ose of you who voted No, you can now relax for another 18 months to 2 years. At that point we will be in 2019 at least and that will probably be too late to go for IndyRef2 before the next Holyrood elections. I reckon she will go to the ballot box with IndyRef2 on the paper and ask for a mandate formit to happen in the next parliament. We are looking at 2022 at the earliest IMO.

Then it will have been 8 years. A few years too soon for me but probably a reasonable enough time given Brexit for the country to agree to go again.

Seriously? I thought the FM couldn't be any clearer, albeit in a subtle way, that indyref2 will happen in this parliament term.

[pandarilla]

Decent statement.

I've mentioned on the other thread but I really think it's time that labour supporters in Scotland ask themselves difficult questions.

Corbyn was rejected by the electorate. Yes, he didn't do as disastrously as many thought, but a real, genuine progressive UK was an option and it was miles away from forming a government against the biggest clusterfuck of a campaign ever run.

Do Labour "progressives" genuinely want to stay in a union where Scotland will never be run in the way their politics would like? Is the union and nationalism more important to them than actually being able to take Scotland on a progressive path, where a centre left party can actually win and implement the type of fairer policies they support?

Corbyn was talked down massively by the media and I think that plays a part. A lot of numpties are influenced by this sort of crap.

Now he's had a pretty big breakthrough and the media narrative has changed. I think he'll have a real shot at winning the next general election (whenever that may be).

[NotThePars]

10 minutes ago, JMDP said:

Decent statement.

I've mentioned on the other thread but I really think it's time that labour supporters in Scotland ask themselves difficult questions.

Corbyn was rejected by the electorate. Yes, he didn't do as disastrously as many thought, but a real, genuine progressive UK was an option and it was miles away from forming a government against the biggest clusterfuck of a campaign ever run.

Do Labour "progressives" genuinely want to stay in a union where Scotland will never be run in the way their politics would like? Is the union and nationalism more important to them than actually being able to take Scotland on a progressive path, where a centre left party can actually win and implement the type of fairer policies they support?
 

 

There was 800,000 votes in it. Just double the amount of the referendum on about ten times the gross turnout. The momentum (geddit) is with Corbyn.

[Ira Gaines]

The mainstream media has a massive impact and they stuck the boot into Corbyn at every chance and were massively biased. Also had a lot of his own party working against him for a long time.

How can anyone be stupid enough to come away with "well, he lost" given the size of vote swing and what he worked against to reach it?

 

[NotThePars]

7 minutes ago, Randy Giles said:

The mainstream media has a massive impact and they stuck the boot into Corbyn at every chance and were massively biased. Also had a lot of his own party working against him for a long time.

How can anyone be stupid enough to come away with "well, he lost" given the size of vote swing and what he worked against to reach it?

 

 

Doesn't suit the narrative that the only way for left wing politics now is Scottish independence.

[Lambie's Pigeon Feed]

 
Doesn't suit the narrative that the only way for left wing politics now is Scottish independence.

It certainly muddies the waters. Independence will only be won from the left so it will be interesting how the SNP play it, the Yes movement is much broader of course but they will always be the perceived figurehead.

[DrewDon]

There are worthy arguments for independence regardless of who is in power at Westminster, but Corbyn's rise does make the idea that it is the only viable route to social democracy a harder sell in the near future.

[NotThePars]

Just now, Lambie's Pigeon Feed said:

 

It certainly muddies the waters. Independence will only be won from the left so it will be interesting how the SNP play it, the Yes movement is much broader of course but they will always be the perceived figurehead.

 

 

There's plenty of people who would disagree with that and they may have a point but I will be much more lukewarm towards an independence drive that loses its radical edge. The Yes movement doesn't feel distinct from the SNP either atm. A lot of the attitudes towards the Greens for example centre around the extent to which they will block or support SNP legislation. I'm not at all as enthusiastic as I was in 2014 but I would still vote for independence as it stands.

[Falcor Roar]

If Corbyn becomes prime minister at some point is he at all likely to grant full taxation and spending powers to Scotland perhaps? He seems like a leader who would be willing to listen to the people. A gradual move towards independence might suit Scotland at this time anyway. I'd like more autonomy for Scotland but i'm interested to see where this Labour party is headed. 

[DA Baracus]

Corbyn.

Aye I'm sure he actually gives a f**k about Scotland. More importantly, I'm sure his party give a f**k about Scotland, including anyone who succeeds him as leader of Labour

[JMDP]

Corbyn is getting way too much credit here. He was in a hole because of his utter shambles of a leadership so far. The media operation was awful - utterly no attempt to drive or control narrative. He created the shambles of perception, so wasn't placed for the implosion of the tories.

He was let off the hook by the fact that the utter clowns fronting the tories are equally incompetent and ran the worst campaign in living memory. A Cameron led, ruthless machine would've bulldozed him and CCHQ will ensure that the same shambles doesn't happen again.

It's interesting the stance Scottish labour supporters have latched on to Corbyn as some great hope. His manifesto isn't particularly left of the SNP and some of it(Education) spectacularly ill conceived.

Do the Corbyn fanboys actually genuinely believe that he is capable of delivering social democracy for Scotland over an independent Scotland?

[1320Lichtie]

f**k Corbyn.

c***s doing my nut in now. Pulls a pint at Glastonbury and everyone thinks he's god when he lost an election to the biggest shambles of a PM I've seen in my lifetime.

[git-intae-thum]

Such short sightedness being displyed by some.

Even more short memories.

Lets temember that the labour party are every bit as much the enemy of the Scottish people as the tories.

Probably more so given the hoodwinking act they have performed on successive generations.

Corbyn is temporary.

Independence is permanent.

[Lurkst]

Mind that if this parliament goes full term Corbyn will be 73. If he does get elected the odds are he'll not have long to change British society.