When will indyref2 happen?

[Freedom Farter]

The "Spanish veto" thing is nonsense. The EU is quite happy for Greece and Bulgaria to continue vetoing North Macedonia because ultimately, the EU doesn't really want North Macedonia. However, the EU would absolutely want Scotland. It'd want Scotland on its own merits but also because the EU desperately wants London back and Scotland joining would make England and Wales joining far more likely. The EU is about self-enrichment, its a capitalist entity and money talks loudest, any Spanish gripes would be muffled.

[JS_FFC]

2 minutes ago, Freedom Farter said:

The "Spanish veto" thing is nonsense. The EU is quite happy for Greece and Bulgaria to continue vetoing North Macedonia because ultimately, the EU doesn't really want North Macedonia. However, the EU would absolutely want Scotland. It'd want Scotland on its own merits but also because the EU desperately wants London back and Scotland joining would make England and Wales joining far more likely. The EU is about self-enrichment, its a capitalist entity and money talks loudest, any Spanish gripes would be muffled.

The Spanish veto thing would depend very much on whether Scotland became independent with the UK’s blessing or not, IMO. Assuming the route to independence was a legal one (referendum or otherwise), then I’d be very surprised if Spain stops in the way.

 

Where Spain might cause problems is under some kind of wildcat UDI scenario.

[BFTD]

The UDI crew seems to have jumped ship to Alba these days, blissfully unaware that there's not a snowball's chance in hell that Eck would ever countenance such a thing. Absolutely nobody would recognise us, he'd end up in the jail, and (most importantly) there's no popular support for such a move.

Scottish politics definitely needs more discussion of wildcats, though.

[Jedi2]

3 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

What other integral part of the UK has left since 1922? I would also suggest that you look at the break-up of other countries. For example the USSR - Russia was considered the continuing state & took on the assets & liability of the USSR, just like the current UK did when Ireland left.

Your red herring about UK colonies declaring independence fails to take into account the fact that none of these colonies took on any of the UK's national debt. This supports my view, not yours.

Your figures are at least 10 years out of date. Negotiations will relate to current values, not to estimates from over 10 years ago. As the UK continue to refuse to start negotiations, your attempt to put values on properties owned overseas are nonsensical.

What is this random (non-working) link meant to prove? Scotland isn't even mentioned on the page you link to!

10 year out of date figures again. What's the relevance?

It was you that claimed that the Spanish would veto. I'm still waiting for your proof. Historical quotes from before Brexit or random non-Spanish opinions aren't proof.

Why quote a specific report then not link to it?

Why quote a 6 year old pre-pandemic opinion on the potential effects of this approach?

Why quote a dog-food salesman's opinion from an uber-yoon website which doesn't appear to have been updated since 2020?

Pure speculation i.e. typical Jedi pish. 

Whilst the SNP will negotiate terms if they are in power when a referendum is won, everyone (except you) believes that Independence will result in a total realignment of Scottish politics. New groupings will arise.

Do you honestly believe that Scottish Labour will continue to be controlled by Sir Keir after indy?

Just the standard dung from your top trolling SNP ultra superfan boy position.

The Growth Commission report doesn't 'count' now (as its pre-pandemic) despite Kate Forbes key role in it.

The SNP would split and willingly give up the reigns post-Indy because 'everyone' believes they will (ie you think they will, therefore they will).

We can look with confidence to a 122 year old agreement to posit what a current UK govt approach will be to Scotland.

'Any' Spanish politician that isn't on message...dismissed..any thought about the political makeup of a Spanish administration and their position on Catalonia which could be hard line..dismissed.

Rancid.

 

[JS_FFC]

3 hours ago, BFTD said:

The UDI crew seems to have jumped ship to Alba these days, blissfully unaware that there's not a snowball's chance in hell that Eck would ever countenance such a thing. Absolutely nobody would recognise us, he'd end up in the jail, and (most importantly) there's no popular support for such a move.

Scottish politics definitely needs more discussion of wildcats, though.

Also, as you point out, if any Scottish government ever went for a wildcat UDI, we’d have much bigger problems on our hands than Spain vetoing our EU membership. It’s effectively a non issue. 

[lichtgilphead]

3 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

The Growth Commission report doesn't 'count' now (as its pre-pandemic) despite Kate Forbes key role in it.

Why not quote the growth commission itself instead of the dogfood salesman's opinion on it then? These Islands is hardly an impartial site. 

In addition, believe it or not, the UK's economic position was significantly affected by the pandemic. https://ifs.org.uk/taxlab/taxlab-key-questions/how-did-covid-affect-government-revenues-spending-borrowing-and-debt

Perhaps if you supplied some up-to-date figures, you might be a bit more convincing

3 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

The SNP would split and willingly give up the reigns post-Indy because 'everyone' believes they will (ie you think they will, therefore they will).

It's "reins", not "reigns", Dr Jedi PhD. 

Well, I certainly intend to leave and find it hard to believe that the current bonds within the party will survive once the unifying principle has been acheived. Many other grass-root members on here have expressed the same opinion. However, as you know better, I'm sure that your prediction that Nicola will return as leader will come to fruition. Well done you!

3 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

We can look with confidence to a 122 year old agreement to posit what a current UK govt approach will be to Scotland.

Gosh! was it that long ago that the Baltic States split from Russia/USSR?

Have you got anything more recent?

3 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

'Any' Spanish politician that isn't on message...dismissed..any thought about the political makeup of a Spanish administration and their position on Catalonia which could be hard line..dismissed.

To summarise your 4 original links

1st link - dated more than 10 years ago - Spanish minister refuses to confirm whether Spain will veto. He also doesn't confirm that they won't. No proof there

2nd link - dated over 7 years ago - "WHAT WAS CLAIMED The Spanish government hasn’t said that it would veto an independent Scotland joining the European Union. OUR VERDICT Correct"

How does this support your argument, Jedi? It specifically says that Joanna Cherry "has a point" with her claim

3rd link - dated just under 10 years ago, but hidden behind a paywall - an Irish (not Spanish) politician I've never heard of predicts that BOTH Spain & Belgium would block Scotland from joining the EU. 

4th Link - is from only two and a half years ago, but consists of a Greek academic working in Nottingham saying that Spain will block Scottish entry to the EU if Scotland declares UDI during the Spnish elections in 2023. That didn't happen.

When are you going to produce a current Spanish politician that supports your view Jedi?

Please don't bother wasting everyone's time by replying unless you can provide some actual proof of your views.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

9 hours ago, BFTD said:

This really is becoming the ANGRY WALL OF TEXT thread.

 

The Professor is trying so hard.

[GTee]

Very few people are changing their minds from 2014. Only hope is the younger folk are more inclined for it. Voting to endorse a Westminster government doesn't make sense, but hopefully, one day there will be a change.

[Jedi2]

16 minutes ago, GTee said:

Very few people are changing their minds from 2014. Only hope is the younger folk are more inclined for it. Voting to endorse a Westminster government doesn't make sense, but hopefully, one day there will be a change.

You are right that the numbers haven't shifted by much in 10 years and that of course is despite Brexit, Johnson, Truss and Sunak. 

During that period the SNP have won 5 elections in Scotland including holding 56 out of 59 Westminster seats. Despite these 'mandates' they have failed to either secure another Referendum (as they constantly promised) or move support for Independence up to much beyond 50%.

Of course you can say..ah but that's only down to Westminster intransigence or the Supreme Court being biased etc...is there another side to that coin though, that if the people of Scotland felt that Devolved govt was being really well run, then the 'pro-Indy' figure would be closer to 60 plus percent?

Independence in polls of 'priorities' is now quite far down the list for most, behind, unsurprisingly, Education Health Cost of Living the Environment, Poverty, the Economy etc.

 

[Highlandmagar]

Just let's face it guys. Labour will win the GE( sadly). And Starmer will get to play being a male Thatcher( his hero). And as for that scummy Wes Streeting? God help us!

[lichtgilphead]

On 18/05/2024 at 09:28, Jedi2 said:

I'm raging at Starmer putting out a wee card with pledges 

[BFTD]

Following today's Daily Mail article regarding the rising cost of copper, questions are being asked about changes that are alleged to have been made to yesterday's Labour Party policy pledges. The claims were dismissed as "poppycock and nonsense" by sources close to Labour leader Sir Kier Starmer; "with rising immigration and welfare, we've always known that the economy would be unable to sustain a program of copper kettles across the board, and for our opponents to suggest otherwise is laughable".

[JS_FFC]

So is this election in July a de facto referendum? 

[lichtgilphead]

13 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

So is this election in July a de facto referendum? 

Accotding to @Jedi2, Humza will declare UDI if the SNP win a majority of seats. Jedi has his finger on the pulse.

[JS_FFC]

On 22/05/2024 at 22:18, lichtgilphead said:

Accotding to @Jedi2, Humza will declare UDI if the SNP win a majority of seats. Jedi has his finger on the pulse.

I had a look at the SNP policy that was agreed during their conference and it’s stated that a majority of Scottish seats in the upcoming general election will see the Scottish government “begin negotiations” on independence.

 

John Swinney knows as well as you or I do that the Westminster government will refuse to engage with this process. The policy allows for that by saying that in that case, the 2026 Holyrood election could become a de facto referendum. That would be plan B although it’s not clear whether or not there’s a plan C if they refuse again.

 

Where I think the SNP are in a bit of a corner with all this “majority of seats” or “de facto” referendums is that they’re in a lose-lose situation. If the SNP get the necessary level of support then WM will not recognise the legitimacy, and if they fail to do so then WM will play up the fact that the SNP have lost a de facto referendum and use that as an excuse to continue refusing the people of Scotland their right to self-determination (“You already said no in 2014 and then again in 2024”)

[lichtgilphead]

43 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

I had a look at the SNP policy that was agreed during their conference and it’s stated that a majority of Scottish seats in the upcoming general election will see the Scottish government “begin negotiations” on independence.

 

John Swinney knows as well as you or I do that the Westminster government will refuse to engage with this process. The policy allows for that by saying that in that case, the 2026 Holyrood election could become a de facto referendum. That would be plan B although it’s not clear whether or not there’s a plan C if they refuse again.

 

Where I think the SNP are in a bit of a corner with all this “majority of seats” or “de facto” referendums is that they’re in a lose-lose situation. If the SNP get the necessary level of support then WM will not recognise the legitimacy, and if they fail to do so then WM will play up the fact that the SNP have lost a de facto referendum and use that as an excuse to continue refusing the people of Scotland their right to self-determination (“You already said no in 2014 and then again in 2024”)

So, you agree with me. @Jedi2 is making stuff up. The SNP will not declare UDI if they win a majority of seats at the upcoming general election.

For what it's worth, my opinion is that a majority of seats in a FPTP election is not a mandate for independence unless pro-indy parties (including the SNP, Greens & Alba) also get >50% of the vote. 

Obviously a true mandate should be obtained through a referendum, but the undemocratic UK refuse to allow Scotland that form of self-determination. Given that the both the UK government and main opposition party keep telling us that Scotland is a drain on UK finances, you have to ask yourself why. Is it out of the goodness of their hearts, or are they hiding the real reasons?

[Binos]

Now...never

[Binos]

18 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

So, you agree with me. @Jedi2 is making stuff up. The SNP will not declare UDI if they win a majority of seats at the upcoming general election.

For what it's worth, my opinion is that a majority of seats in a FPTP election is not a mandate for independence unless pro-indy parties (including the SNP, Greens & Alba) also get >50% of the vote. 

Obviously a true mandate should be obtained through a referendum, but the undemocratic UK refuse to allow Scotland that form of self-determination. Given that the both the UK government and main opposition party keep telling us that Scotland is a drain on UK finances, you have to ask yourself why. Is it out of the goodness of their hearts, or are they hiding the real reasons?

They will not declare unilateral independence but that won't suggest bbc scotland suggesting they will 

Margaret thatcher once said she would give automatic independence if snp won a majority of seats in a general election 

These things tend to be suggested when know it won't happen 

[Jedi2]

Help ma boab...even SNP Conference is 'lying' now according to purveyor of all wisdom and top troll, @lichtgilphead

For the avoidance of doubt the wording the motion again (I know, I know, it's 'lies' but hey, it is from www.snp.org.

Conference believes that if the SNP subsequently wins a majority of the seats at the General Election in Scotland, the Scottish Government is empowered to begin immediate negotiations with the UK Government to give democratic effect to Scotland becoming an independent country and establish a Constitutional Convention constituted by the MPs elected to Westminster, MSPs and representatives of civic Scotland.

'Immediate negotiations'...(No, not my words, but the words of those SNP members who drafted the motion, and then had the motion passed at Confernece..and John Swinney's words 2 days ago that he would honour said motion.

So...is it 'lies' that if the SNP win a majority of seats at the GE that they will begin 'immediate negotiations' to give effect to Scotland becoming an Independent country.

Which part is lies...those who drafted the motion, those who voted for it, John Swinney restatement of it...or all 3?

 

[Dan Steele]