When will indyref2 happen?

[Alan Twelve]

23 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

If he is who I think he is he does have a PhD.

Is it this one:

 

[Jedi2]

2 hours ago, Wee Bully said:

So, where does your 26% come from?

March 2024: Just a 30,000 increase 

The Scottish poverty report uses a three-year average, estimating the rate of child poverty to be 24% but single-year statistics showed an increase. Additional tables in the report put the figure for the last year at 26% of children living in relative poverty in Scotland, up approximately 30,000 from the previous year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8763j5p5pmo.amp

[Jedi2]

48 minutes ago, Alan Twelve said:

Is it this one:

 

That's it @DeeTillEhDeh has successfully outed me as Jim Diamond

[lichtgilphead]

15 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

March 2024: Just a 30,000 increase 

The Scottish poverty report uses a three-year average, estimating the rate of child poverty to be 24% but single-year statistics showed an increase. Additional tables in the report put the figure for the last year at 26% of children living in relative poverty in Scotland, up approximately 30,000 from the previous year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8763j5p5pmo.amp

And here's the "Important Notes" from the data tables for the figures (my emphasis)

Reliability of the estimates
The figures in these tables are estimates only, based on data from a sample survey. Thus, they could be a little bit higher or lower if we interviewed a different sample of the population.
The precision of poverty rate estimates for the whole Scottish population is usually the central estimate plus or minus two percentage points, or plus or minus four percentage points for the Scottish child population. (Note that the precision is lower for estimates that include pandemic years.) Precision is lower for smaller groups.
Any small changes from year to year may not reflect real changes in the population. Longer-term trends are a better sign of a real change. Small differences between groups do not always reflect real differences in the population. Differences are more likely to be real if they are consistent over time.

Note that the 24% overall figure has an accuracy of worse than +/- 4% (as the figures include pandemic years) and that the 26% figure for 2022/23 will be even less accurate than that, as it only involves 375 families.

So, the official estimate for the last 3 years is 24%, as stated by @Wee Bully and myself, and the poorer short-term measure suggests that it might have been 26% in 2022/23.

However, let's give Jedi the benefit of the doubt, and assume that these figures are accurate

It's easy to work out averages for 99/00 - 06/07 (when Labour were in Government in Scotland) and from 07/08 to date (when the SNP were in power)

Labour Average = (31, 31, 31, 27, 26, 25, 24, 25)/8 = 27.5%

SNP Average = (23, 25, 24, 21, 19, 22, 22, 21, 26, 23, 24, 23, 26, no figure, 23, 26)/15 = 23.2%

As the tables say, "longer-term trends are a better sign of a real change." Child poverty rates are, on average, 4.3% worse under Scottish Labour.

[Jedi2]

Of course failing to mention that between 1999-2007, whilst 'in Government' that it was a Lab-Lib Coalition, but still.

Also reducing child poverty is the SNP's current 'central mission'. Trumpeting 'only' a quarter of children living in poverty under (any) administration is not a case for credit, whether its a few % point lower than England or not.

[Jedi2]

On some of the other points, yes it's not 'illegal' to trade with either China or Turkey, and yes, the (current) UK govt does so. Its more the point that the SNP made a lot of capital out of Starmer's stumbling over Palestine, yet, despite the SNP being 'better' and (of course) different from WM, they are happy to do deals with countries involved in genocide.

In the case of Yousaf, as he said himself of budding up to Erdogan, (maybe he was lying):

'Why on earth would Scotland not look to seek to engage with a Nato ally and of course with somebody we would seek to do business and trade with?"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68017535

Or perhaps Angus Robertson's November jolly to China or earlier last year:

On 25th May 2023, Consul General Zhang Biao paid a courtesy call on Mr. Angus Robertson MSP, Cabinet Secretary for Constitution, External Affairs and Culture of the Scottish Government, exchanging views on China-Scotland relations and practical cooperation

Robertson welcomed Zhang to Scotland, and highlighted the importance of strengthening relationships with China. He also reaffirm of Scotland’s commitment to furthering the mutually-beneficial cooperation in new energy, low-carbon, and other fields.

http://edinburgh.china-consulate.gov.cn/eng/xwdt/202306/t20230601_11088208.htm

On the Attainment gap:

'Scotland's Attainment Gap Widens Again' (2023) figures are there:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-66446059

National Care Service and National Energy Company:

Yes, they can have until 2025 to get them going, but given the silence on both, that's a heck of a lot of work to do in a year.

 

 

Edited June 8 by Jedi2

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

Of course failing to mention that between 1999-2007, whilst 'in Government' that it was a Lab-Lib Coalition, but still.

Also reducing child poverty is the SNP's current 'central mission'. Trumpeting 'only' a quarter of children living in poverty under (any) administration is not a case for credit, whether its a few % point lower than England or not.

Awwwww, did the big bad LibDems do it and run away? Shame.

The figures you quote relate to relative poverty. The relative poverty baseline is 60% of median UK income. Accordingly, when median income increases, so will the amount required to escape relative poverty. Under this measure, it is impossible to eradicate poverty unless everyone is on the median income.

More importantly, however, under the current UK tax rates & benefits scheme (which Labour may impose in Scotland if they are back in power at Holyrood in 2026 - perhaps in coalition with the Tories?), they may remove the Scottish 19% tax rate paid by lower earners, and also remove the Scottish Child Payment. That will probably equalise Scottish & rUK child poverty rates. Hurrah! Better together!

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

Despite the SNP being 'better' and (of course) different from WM, they are happy to do deals with countries involved in genocide.

I can't be arsed looking for examples of UK politicians praising Turkey or China. However, here is the latest .gov.uk guidance re both countries

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/summary-of-the-uk-turkey-trade-agreement

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66447e154f29e1d07fadc7a4/china-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2024-05-17.pdf

Please point out the references to "genocide"

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

On the Attainment gap:

'Scotland's Attainment Gap Widens Again' (2023) figures are there:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-66446059

Ah, the press round-up masquerading as news!

The only 2 papers that headline the attainment gap are the totally unbiased Scotsman & Scottish Daily Express. The other 16 papers headline other stories and don't even mention attainment on their front page.

I previously asked "Where do these figures come from? The latest figures I can find (December 2023) state that the gap has reduced since the previous figures from 2018/19 (pre-pandemic)"

The limited information on the front pages of these two rabidly unionist papers do not demonstrate any overall drop. I suspect that they have picked out figures to suit their agenda. Please provide some realistic evidence to prove your point.

Incidentlally, as you claim to be a socialist, why do you appear to get all your news from the 'Scottish' Daily Express?

Edited June 9 by lichtgilphead
to improve description of relative poverty levels

[GTee]

See this GB energy thing. I thought the oil and gas was running out. Probably wind and rain will be running out in Scotland soon as well.

[BFTD]

I'm starting to see a pattern between shit administrations and the involvement of the hated Liberal Democrats.

Fight the real enemy, my friends.

[orfc]

11 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

Labour Average = (31, 31, 31, 27, 26, 25, 24, 25)/8 = 27.5%

SNP Average = (23, 25, 24, 21, 19, 22, 22, 21, 26, 23, 24, 23, 26, no figure, 23, 26)/15 = 23.2%

As the tables say, "longer-term trends are a better sign of a real change." Child poverty rates are, on average, 4.3% worse under Scottish Labour.

So if trends matter, why have you worked out averages

It looks to me as if labour reduced it, the SNP reduced it a bit more but then it went back up, no?

[lichtgilphead]

17 minutes ago, orfc said:

So if trends matter, why have you worked out averages

Because the figures quoted are the less accurate single year figures Jedi has referred to instead of the more accurate 3 year averages

18 minutes ago, orfc said:

It looks to me as if labour reduced it, the SNP reduced it a bit more but then it went back up, no?

Look at the 3 year averages & get back to me.

Labour inherited a 32% gap from the Tories in 1997, and took until 2004 to get it under 30%. They then further reduced it to 25% by 2007.

Since then, the SNP have had 2 periods at 25% (one overlapping with Labour (2006/09), and the other in 2018/21 (which included the pandemic)

Every other period has been lower than 25%, including the last 2 periods (both 24%)

[Rosey1889]

This gilphead and Jedi pair have to be the most boring posters in the history of the internet.

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, Rosey1889 said:

This gilphead and Jedi pair have to be the most boring posters in the history of the internet.

If Jedi would stop posting lists of lies, I wouldn't have to bother replying.

[Wee Bully]

1 hour ago, Rosey1889 said:

This gilphead and Jedi pair have to be the most boring posters in the history of the internet.

Presumably that’s because Jedi is getting his arse handed to him, and you don’t like that?

[lichtgilphead]

14 hours ago, Jedi2 said:

National Care Service and National Energy Company:

Yes, they can have until 2025 to get them going, but given the silence on both, that's a heck of a lot of work to do in a year.

I see that Jedi edited last night's post to add the 2 totally unconnected lines above.

Firstly, I would point out that it's nearly 18 months until the end of 2025, not just a year

Secondly, the National Care Service Bill was introduced in June 2022, and the stage 1 report was submitted to parliament on 22nd February 2024. A vote was held on 29th February, where Jackie Baillie tried to delay matters by sending it back to committee (Yes, Labour are trying to obstruct matters , as usual). This motion was defeated. The vote to proceed to stage 2 was passed.

That's not silence Jedi, it's just your ignorance.

See https://www.parliament.scot/bills-and-laws/bills/national-care-service-scotland-bill/stage-1

Thirdly, with regard to the National Public Energy Agency (as set out in the SNP 2021/2022 Programme for Government), here's the latest quote from the Scottish Government Website

"The fully dedicated agency will be in place by September 2025. Until then the work of the agency is being delivered by the Scottish Government so it is not delayed and the Agency can be developed properly." 

[Granny Danger]

6 hours ago, Rosey1889 said:

This gilphead and Jedi pair have to be the most boring posters in the history of the internet.

You’re half right.

[Jedi2]

On 09/06/2024 at 13:03, lichtgilphead said:

If Jedi would stop posting lists of lies, I wouldn't have to bother replying.

Lists of 'lies' from sources which include the Scottish govt itself, direct quotes from Humza Yousaf, Angus Robertson, Neil Gray, et al.

Figures from Education Scotland, the SNP's own manifesto, (any) Newspaper which isn't 100% behind the SNP, Econonists, the SNP's own Growth Commission document, BBC Scotland, The EU, Police Scotland, any Polling company.

Other than that..

It's some achievement for any party to have an unblemished record for 17 whole years that's for sure 

Edited June 10 by Jedi2

[lichtgilphead]

There's plenty of things that people can criticise the SNP for without telling lies. Unfortunately, Jedi doesn't seem capable of doing this without making stuff up.

As @Wee Bully says, @Jedi2is getting his arse handed to him on this thread, not only by me, but by other posters too.

Jedi might be better picking upon one topic where the SNP are doing badly and sticking to it, rather than producing lists of half-truths & easily debunked lies.

Didn't one of the Yoons on here start up a thread for this very purpose? It's probably slipped off the front page due to lack of posts.

Edited June 10 by lichtgilphead

[Jedi2]

It's way beyond the stage where you have to ask yourself...who's 'right'..Senior SNP politicians with directly attributable quotes about private healthcare, supporting unsavoury regimes in China and Turkey, Education Scotland, Police Scotland, much of the mainstream media, the SNP's own manifesto (all apparently hotbed of liars)..or....some guy on the Internet who is never wrong about anything.

What we do know of course, in answer to the title of this thread is that Scotland will start it's journey to Independence in just over 3 weeks...it is likely that the SNP will gain seats to take them to over 50, with the Scottish voting public solidly behind an unprecedented 17 years of essentially perfect governance, and inspired by serial winner, John Swinney, who will start the coming negotiations himself, before July is even out.

[GTG_03]

Please make it stop.