When will indyref2 happen?

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Zern said:

How does that work exactly? Through psychic suppression?

You have the Spanish constitution. Okay. That has no bearing on our situation or on any independence movements or declarations worldwide. We don't see Spain vetoing independent countries that have taken the UDI route. Nor do we see the UK doing the same in order to quell it's own movements.

In fact the EU has taken a very active role in neighbouring states in becoming independent over its lifetime.

Quote

Spain has been the only major country in Western Europe that has not recognised Kosovo, originally because of objections to the legality of its unilateral declaration of independence under international law, and also due to concerns about possible implications regarding its own issues with domestic independence movements.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain's_reaction_to_the_2008_Kosovo_declaration_of_independence

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Kenneth840 said:

Google it. 

Still waiting on your qualifications as a UN spokesperson. 

You appear to be claiming that title yourself.

[Kenneth840]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

You appear to be claiming that title yourself.

No, I have read article 1.

[Lex]

Holy moly. This new moon howler is something else.
A unionist troll, surely?

[Kenneth840]

19 minutes ago, Lex said:

Holy moly. This new moon howler is something else.
A unionist troll, surely?

At last, someone recognises the danger. 

We dont need your permission to be independent.  Domestic law is not worth a shit cunto. 

Slowly and very slowly (too slowly for my liking, we dont have time) the people of Scotland will realise this and your union will be no more.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Kenneth840
Emphasis

[NotThePars]

4 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I think one of the only times when the Scottish vote was crucial to Labour was in 2019

2017.

[lichtgilphead]

10 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

2017.

Labour's 262 plus the Snp's 35 was only 297, still well short of the Tories 318. There was no way to a Labour majority without the DUP, which was never going to happen.

[Zern]

3 hours ago, welshbairn said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain's_reaction_to_the_2008_Kosovo_declaration_of_independence

Where in that link are you getting the idea that Spain vetoed EU or UN recognition of Kosovo?

Much less any general rule that can be applied to any other nation. Kosovo is very much a special circumstance and is currently on the path to full recognition. With EU support no less.

Consider Eritrea. Once part of Ethiopia and fought for its independence. Recognised worldwide. You know who else Spain did not recognise at first? Israel.

Also, this dates from 2008 so it is fair to ask whether this was successful in stemming an independence movement and calls for a Catalonian referendum.

*checks history*

Ah.

 

Or perhaps it is a matter that is very much dealt with on a case by case basis by governments..

Y'know other countries have their own independence movements too?

Why do they never get a mention? Always Spain.

[Jacksgranda]

1 minute ago, lichtgilphead said:

Labour's 262 plus the Snp's 35 was only 297, still well short of the Tories 318. There was no way to a Labour majority without the DUP, which was never going to happen.

 

2 billion would probably have done it...

[Caledonian1]

5 hours ago, Kenneth840 said:

If the referendum happens, use UN franchise.

For the 2024 English general election?  The one that Pete Wishart for example is chuffed about the opinion polls showing a large SNP win, 56/59. That one.

So are we having a referendum in 2023?

The referendum act 2020 is not worth the paper it is written on.  The whole Scotland act can and will be changed by westminster as and when it chooses.  We cannot proceed whilst seeking a section 30 Scotland act order.  We cannot proceed legally under UK law, it has been designed to stop us.  It is not possible. 

We have to come to terms with the fact that we are a colony in all but name, and appeal to the UN for support and adopt UN practice with regards to referenda. 

The referendum in 2023 cannot be happening when we have SNP politicians cheering opinion polls about a 2024 westminster general election. 

Goodness me.

The goal is an Independent Scotland free from tory rule where the Scots decide their own future. 

The opinion poll was not specifically about a GE in 2024.  It was about voting intentions at the next GE (as if there was one now).  There is a fair chance that the Tories will change leader before too long.  Recent history has shown that the last two leaders have called a GE to emphasise their authority - May in 2017 and Johnson in 2019.  Who is to say that there will not be a GE at some stage in 2022 or 2023.

[Scott Steiner]

On 27/12/2021 at 12:01, NotThePars said:

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Labour tank their own chance at power to prevent number 1. Even if the SNP don't mind lining up with Tories up here to shoot down progressive legislation on occasion I don't think the vastly greater media attention on the SNP horse trading with a minority Tory Party down south would let them trade a referendum for keeping them in power at Westminster.

You've answered your own scenario with number 2. I don't see any scenario where an unbinding referendum gets any credibility attached to it from the other side. 

Catalonia shows if the state needs to crack down then it will and while us being out of Europe is important to consider I still think the EU values stability over anything else and them being seen to endorse an intransigent breakaway movement makes civil disobedience tricky and that's before you consider that the SNP have virtually zero stomach for it and have done nothing to make it a valid option. 

It's all asking nicely and some legalistic pursuits which given the last 5 years looks very unlikely. I'm not surprised the Alba contingent have had enough even if I think they're expressing it mostly like cranks and don't have a coherent plan either. I don't think there is one FWIW.

If I was a Nat **shivers** then I'd throw my weight behind Alba.

Seriously, imagine if you lot had got the supermajority?  Boris could have still said No to a referendum, citing his clear mandate as well as the lack of majority public support for it or Nat parties, but the Scottish Parliament being packed with SNP/Alba MSPs would have been optically devastating for us Yoons and would possibly have swinged public support toward partition IMO.

As well as that, the Alba MSPs would have acted like a pressure group, asking awkward questions in parliament which could have forced the SNP to actually campaign properly for their supposed cause.

As it stands, I'm glad Alba is still relatively small.  Reading negative posts about them from many P&B neo-libs makes me hopeful they won't become significant.  Then again, P&B is the type of place where one is painted as the next Hitler for daring to question the wholesomeness of men mutilating their bodies, so I shouldn't look too deeply into it.  I really admire them for fighting for their cause though.

It's always going to be hard to keep the many ideologies within Nationalism together, but Sturgeon did that successfully for a long time.  You can see it falling apart now though, and Alba is part of that, with all the 'terfs' and non-woke flocking to them.  I can't wait til Sturgeon goes as whoever takes over will be nowhere near as broadly appealing.

As it stands, a referendum is in the public consciousness as the only moral way for partition to take place, so I don't see any other feasible option.

I also don't see the SNP stepping it up a gear.  Sturgeon's in the pocket of the state.. nothing's more obvious.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Scott Steiner

[welshbairn]

37 minutes ago, Zern said:

Where in that link are you getting the idea that Spain vetoed EU or UN recognition of Kosovo?

Much less any general rule that can be applied to any other nation. Kosovo is very much a special circumstance and is currently on the path to full recognition. With EU support no less.

Consider Eritrea. Once part of Ethiopia and fought for its independence. Recognised worldwide. You know who else Spain did not recognise at first? Israel.

Also, this dates from 2008 so it is fair to ask whether this was successful in stemming an independence movement and calls for a Catalonian referendum.

*checks history*

Ah.

 

Or perhaps it is a matter that is very much dealt with on a case by case basis by governments..

Y'know other countries have their own independence movements too?

Why do they never get a mention? Always Spain.

Civil wars are different, the Eritrean Army occupied Addis Ababa, they could get whatever they wanted. And all the international bodies usually want after a civil war is stable borders and an end to the conflict. I don't recommend that route for Scotland. 

[Zern]

22 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Civil wars are different, the Eritrean Army occupied Addis Ababa, they could get whatever they wanted. And all the international bodies usually want after a civil war is stable borders and an end to the conflict. I don't recommend that route for Scotland. 

Every situation is different. Spain has recognised many such newly independent countries for various reasons and Kosovo is notable mostly because it was rejected by Russia and China. Ironically the UK quite happily recognises Kosovo.

Does that then mean the UK is an automatic yes for our own declaration?

I hardly think it follows and knee-jerk responses of Spain vetoing this and that is such a tired parody especially since they did not veto anything and have been accepting of so many of the newly declared independent states that left Soviet sphere of influence.

Scotland is neither of those nations of course. We have the Republic of Ireland indicating that they will support our independence and would act as sponsor for ascension to the EU, and an EFTA bloc that has openly supported the idea of an independent Scotland joining their ranks.

[strichener]

1 hour ago, Jacksgranda said:

 

2 billion would probably have done it...

That would have been a large "bribe to the DUP".  I know, I know.

[Glen Sannox]

5 hours ago, Kenneth840 said:

At last, someone recognises the danger. 

We dont need your permission to be independent.  Domestic law is not worth a shit cunto. 

Slowly and very slowly (too slowly for my liking, we dont have time) the people of Scotland will realise this and your union will be no more.

You need help Kenneth. Thankfully in this day and age, there is a lot of it out there. I wish you nothing but the best.

[NotThePars]

1 hour ago, Scott Steiner said:

one is painted as the next Hitler for daring to question the wholesomeness of men mutilating their bodies,

Yoooo, what's up?

[Scott Steiner]

2 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Yoooo, what's up?

The fortunes of our glorious Union!

Have you had a good Christmas period, NTP?  I'm back to work tomorrow for 3 days so I've got the blues.

I also notice that this is my one month anniversary on P&B.  It's been interesting to say the least

Edited December 28, 2021 by Scott Steiner

[sophia]

Too Tony

[ICTJohnboy]

49 minutes ago, Scott Steiner said:

The fortunes of our glorious Union!

Have you had a good Christmas period, NTP?  I'm back to work tomorrow for 3 days so I've got the blues.

I also notice that this is my one month anniversary on P&B.  It's been interesting to say the least

 

In your present guise?

[git-intae-thum]

The issue of Westminster continually refusing a S.30 because they know they will lose.......and in turn Scottish based britnats likely to boycott any Holyrood only organised referendum, creates a clear issue for democracy in Scotland.  

Maybe for the future we should look to the past for inspiration as a way of expressing democratic will.

Something like a new national covenant....but with a modern twist.

Digital signatures not in a book...but each a part of a Blockchain. Something that is clear and transparent to the interested observer and irrefutable as an expression of will. Just a thought.