BawWatchin Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, tirso said: Scotland does have some cards to play too though. No point throwing the nukes out with the bath water. It wouldn't make any sense from either side to deviate an awful lot from whatever EU/UK deal is eventually negotiated for the interim. As Scotland would be joining the EU in the short term. Anyway this decommissioning is not a material issue. Size of debt would be but there's only so many variations. It all comes down to what kind of Brexit is in play. A hard brexit kills indy for me until good answers can be spelled out. I'd vote for it as I believe Scotland shouldn't be economically bullied but it won't carry the electorate. I say it again; the May deal was a gift to Scottish independence. Could never be supported as it would wipe out the SNP without proper messaging though. Disagree. If a hard brexit can't push Scotland over the line, then a soft brexit never would have. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tirso Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 2 hours ago, BawWatchin said: If it's a hard brexit, then they will no longer be our largest trading partner anyway. What does England produce on it's own? No. It still would be; at a horrendous tariff for businesses on both sides. I don't believe for a minute it will happen but if it does, Indy's fucked. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, tirso said: No. It still would be; at a horrendous tariff for businesses on both sides. I don't believe for a minute it will happen but if it does, Indy's fucked. But hold on just a minute. Scotland exports far more to rUK than it imports. So surely "horrendous tarrifs" would suit us? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tirso Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, BawWatchin said: Disagree. If a hard brexit can't push Scotland over the line, then a soft brexit never would have. we don't have the economic answers to win indyref2, at the moment, under a hard brexit scenario. It's the worst of all circumstances. We'll be an absolutely raging lodger that wants to leave but feels forced to stay purely on economic grounds. It probably doesn't bode well for the Union in the long term though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 Just now, tirso said: we don't have the economic answers to win indyref2, at the moment, under a hard brexit scenario. It's the worst of all circumstances. We'll be an absolutely raging lodger that wants to leave but feels forced to stay purely on economic grounds. It probably doesn't bode well for the Union in the long term though. What economic grounds? The UK doesn't have the economic answers for keeping Scotland in the UK under a hard brexit scenario. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tirso Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, BawWatchin said: What economic grounds? The UK doesn't have the economic answers for keeping Scotland in the UK under a hard brexit scenario. Fair enough. I want the SNP to be getting these positive figures out now so we can make a judgement. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG_03 Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 1 hour ago, strichener said: The rUK government will not be dictated to by Scotland in negotiations and won't be negotiating with a Scotland in the EU. Anyone that thinks that Scotland will have the upper-hand or that Scotland will be in the EU quicker than it leaves the UK is certifiable. The rUK government also said they wouldn't be dictated to by the EU and won't pay the divorce bill. An EU backed Indy Scotland has the better negotiating position. This is all a bit pointless anyway as we won't be allowed to have indyref2, rUK can't afford to lose Scotland especially when they're already set to bring us out of the EU. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, tirso said: Fair enough. I want the SNP to be getting these positive figures out now so we can make a judgement. With the polls now showing Scotland in favour of Scottish Independence, the onus is now on the UK Government to provide figures and reasons for making us want to stay. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tirso Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, BawWatchin said: With the polls now showing Scotland in favour of Scottish Independence, the onus is now on the UK Government to provide figures and reasons for making us want to stay. No they (polls) don't. and no (the UK govt) don't have to bother. The fact it's still a majority against before the hard questions come is a real worry. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 I’m all for democracy in principle but why don’t we go for armed insurrection and shoot all the NO voters? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, tirso said: No they (polls) don't. and no (the UK govt) don't have to bother. The fact it's still a majority against before the hard questions come is a real worry. We'll see. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tirso Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 We'll see.Well we're not going to win by making stuff up.I genuinely believe it's the best for the country over the long term but need to get real about some issues that will crop up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibbermoresaint Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, tirso said: No they (polls) don't. and no (the UK govt) don't have to bother. The fact it's still a majority against before the hard questions come is a real worry. So what will the arguments against independence be after a hard brexit? I'm not convinced that "we're completely fucked but you must stay and be completely fucked with us" is a winner. Edited June 25, 2019 by Tibbermoresaint Punctuation 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibbermoresaint Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, tirso said: Well we're not going to win by making stuff up. No, but let's not forget how successful that was for the britnats in 2014. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tirso Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said: So what will the arguments against independence be after a hard brexit? I'm not convinced that "we're completely fucked but you must stay and be completely fucked with us" is a winner. apparently none as we have a trade surplus with England. Just needs spelled out now by the SNP and we're good to go. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 5 hours ago, tirso said: You are missing the point that it's not Scotland or England that would want a hard border. In the context of a hard brexit, the EU will demand a hard border. There will be negotiation with rest of the UK following independence. I don't foresee huge difficulties there. The problem occurs when Scotland joins the EU and has to abide by EU trade. It's exactly the same issue as Ireland. End of the day, I agree there probably won't be a hard brexit. But if it does happen, it makes Scottish independence much more difficult when some would think it makes the case. We would be in a terrible situation where we would be placing barriers to our largest trading partner. If England goes this mad, it makes Scotland's financial case for separating extremely wobbly whilst the moral one is cast iron. One way round this is to promise a referendum on EU membership soon after independence. It would allow the Scottish electorate to consider the pros and cons of EU membership within the context of the deal struck with the rUK. It would also take the prospect of a hard border with rUK out of the independence campaign, since Yes could just say it would be something Scotland would decide once it is a sovereign country. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 1 hour ago, tirso said: I think you've gone down a rabbit hole here and you know it. The operators would have to comply with a tax setting government and the oil isn't going anywhere. There would be a negotiation and some sort of balance found. This is not an issue that will swing any voters to No, in my view. People instinctively know having oil is better than not having it. I think the rabbit hole is already filled with the heads of people that think Scotland can have a no-deal independence from rUK and not only cherry pick what that they want but at the same time dictate to the larger entity. It is far more likely that any indication that there would be no-deal would see the Unionist in Scotland demanding a second vote on the basis that "no-one voted for a this type of independence" which would put the SNP in an uncomfortable position given their current position of wanting a second referendum for the UK. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 48 minutes ago, GTG_03 said: The rUK government also said they wouldn't be dictated to by the EU and won't pay the divorce bill. An EU backed Indy Scotland has the better negotiating position. This is all a bit pointless anyway as we won't be allowed to have indyref2, rUK can't afford to lose Scotland especially when they're already set to bring us out of the EU. Again, Scotland at the point of negotiating with rUK will not be in the EU. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, strichener said: I think the rabbit hole is already filled with the heads of people that think Scotland can have a no-deal independence from rUK and not only cherry pick what that they want but at the same time dictate to the larger entity. It is far more likely that any indication that there would be no-deal would see the Unionist in Scotland demanding a second vote on the basis that "no-one voted for a this type of independence" which would put the SNP in an uncomfortable position given their current position of wanting a second referendum for the UK. England isn't larger than the EU m8. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tirso Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, strichener said: I think the rabbit hole is already filled with the heads of people that think Scotland can have a no-deal independence from rUK and not only cherry pick what that they want but at the same time dictate to the larger entity. It is far more likely that any indication that there would be no-deal would see the Unionist in Scotland demanding a second vote on the basis that "no-one voted for a this type of independence" which would put the SNP in an uncomfortable position given their current position of wanting a second referendum for the UK. You've already said decommissioning has got nought to do with the UK. So it's nothing to do with a deal. Taking the Oil fields in your own waters is not cherry picking for goodness sake. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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