When will indyref2 happen?

[Malky3]

1 minute ago, Stinky Bone said:

Compared to 30 years post brexit, I think Independence is a better choice. 

Ok. Can to explain how? 

The way I see things is that most of the damage from Brexit has already happened, investment has waned, the value of the pound is low, and growth is sluggish. There may well be more to come on the day we leave the EU, either with a deal or without one, but after that I'd imagine the uncertainty would be removed and within a few weeks we'd start to see businesses finding routes to market that allow them to continue to trade - I know for certain already that the German car manufacturers have already put in place contingency plans to ensure that UK buyers will be able to buy German cars for example.  In the meantime the UK Government will start to put into place new trade deals. I'd imagine the very first ones would come from the USA and from Commonwealth countries like Canada, New Zealand and Australia. I'd also imagine that the EU would be very keen to get a trade deal sorted quickly despite the Bravado. Ireland in particular would be in dire straits and Germany, Spain and France would be very keen to ensure that trade restrictions were kept to a minimum. 

Whilst all that is happening you'd have Scotland prolonging the period of uncertainty here as we go through yet another Independence Referendum with arguments over basics like what currency would be used and what proportion of UK debt Scotland would be responsible for. And if the referendum ends with Independence the Scottish Government and Westminister would have to go though divorce negotiations far greater and more complex than those of Brexit all the while further damaging the Scottish economy. 

 

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

1 hour ago, Day of the Lords said:

Kudos to anyone that can be arsed reading this Malky3 character's posts in full

I did enjoy this pearl when I saw it:

I didn't do any such thing. I voted to protect what my family had. We've already established that. Since 2014 I have bought a larger house, new cars, paid off debt and accumulated more savings. I've continued to work for an English company. I'd imagine many other Scots have successfully done the same - all in a period where the SNP had got its sums massively wrong in their White Paper and where instead of rocketing to all time highs the price of oil fell through the floor. 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

8 hours ago, Malky3 said:

The only downsides to my relative wealth and prosperity in recent years have been down to the Scottish Government.

Demonstrably not true.

Unless you get paid in a foreign currency.

[Malky3]

3 minutes ago, Stinky Bone said:

I have read that you voted remain, does it not worry you that during the brexit process the monetary value of your property will quite probably go down? And other negative effects (education for your children, NHS, food shortages) may come into play.  Does it not bother you that you voted to remain in the EU to try and prevent the uncertainty of brexit, yet you are being forced to contemplate a no deal brexit that the majority of your fellow Scots didn't vote for? 

The £10bn to £14bn deficit you quote is based on Scotland being in the UK, not as an Independent country. 

The £10Bn to £14Bn that I refer to is the difference between what the Scottish Government spends and what it earns. it's not currently a deficit but it would be post Independence. Worse that that - as Detournement has pointed out Sterlingisation - which is the SNP's current proposal post Independence would not allow Scotland to run a budget deficit at all. If you think we have austerity right now wait till you see what an Independent future would bring.....

My concern is more related to the damage Brexit has done to our economy. I believe that had we voted to Remain the UK economic growth rate would have been more comparable to that of the US - closer to 5% - 6% per annum than the rather sluggish progress we've made since the referendum. The lack of growth has an impact on the governments budget - for example there is every chance that the UK economy would have been showing an annual surplus by now which would have afforded the government more money to spend in the NHS, Education, Policing, Armed Forces etc. I don't believe the Project Fear stories about drug shortages and food shortages and whilst house prices may well be affected the monetary value of my house would only really matter if I was selling it and emigrating or if I had died and my kids were splitting my assets. 

[Malky3]

23 minutes ago, Stinky Bone said:

I have read that you voted remain, does it not worry you that during the brexit process the monetary value of your property will quite probably go down? And other negative effects (education for your children, NHS, food shortages) may come into play.  Does it not bother you that you voted to remain in the EU to try and prevent the uncertainty of brexit, yet you are being forced to contemplate a no deal brexit that the majority of your fellow Scots didn't vote for? 

The £10bn to £14bn deficit you quote is based on Scotland being in the UK, not as an Independent country. 

Sorry duplicated post

Edited August 4, 2019 by Malky3

[Malky3]

6 minutes ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

Demonstrably not true.

Unless you get paid in a foreign currency.

Trust me it is true! 

I don't spend my wages in a foreign currency. Inflation remains low despite the weak pound. If I was a UK pensioner drawing a pension in the UK and living in Spain then your point would be valid. 

[beefybake]

4 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

The £10Bn to £14Bn that I refer to is the difference between what the Scottish Government spends and what it earns. it's not currently a deficit but it would be post Independence. Worse that that - as Detournement has pointed out Sterlingisation - which is the SNP's current proposal post Independence would not allow Scotland to run a budget deficit at all. If you think we have austerity right now wait till you see what an Independent future would bring.....

My concern is more related to the damage Brexit has done to our economy. I believe that had we voted to Remain the UK economic growth rate would have been more comparable to that of the US - closer to 5% - 6% per annum than the rather sluggish progress we've made since the referendum. The lack of growth has an impact on the governments budget - for example there is every chance that the UK economy would have been showing an annual surplus by now which would have afforded the government more money to spend in the NHS, Education, Policing, Armed Forces etc. I don't believe the Project Fear stories about drug shortages and food shortages and whilst house prices may well be affected the monetary value of my house would only really matter if I was selling it and emigrating or if I had died and my kids were splitting my assets. 

You believe...., every chance.    You don't believe.   Heady stuff.

[ICTJohnboy]

7 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

The £10Bn to £14Bn that I refer to is the difference between what the Scottish Government spends and what it earns. it's not currently a deficit but it would be post Independence. Worse that that - as Detournement has pointed out Sterlingisation - which is the SNP's current proposal post Independence would not allow Scotland to run a budget deficit at all. If you think we have austerity right now wait till you see what an Independent future would bring.....

My concern is more related to the damage Brexit has done to our economy. I believe that had we voted to Remain the UK economic growth rate would have been more comparable to that of the US - closer to 5% - 6% per annum than the rather sluggish progress we've made since the referendum. The lack of growth has an impact on the governments budget - for example there is every chance that the UK economy would have been showing an annual surplus by now which would have afforded the government more money to spend in the NHS, Education, Policing, Armed Forces etc. I don't believe the Project Fear stories about drug shortages and food shortages and whilst house prices may well be affected the monetary value of my house would only really matter if I was selling it and emigrating or if I had died and my kids were splitting my assets. 

 

Hope springs eternal.

 

[jakedee]

Got as far as "pay more tax than my English colleagues" new it would be drivel after that.

Kudos to anyone that can be arsed reading this Malky3 character's posts in full [emoji23]

[Gaz FFC]

He still trying to convince folk he's no trolling?

Best ignored.

[Malky3]

12 minutes ago, Stinky Bone said:

First of all, Brexit is a process.  It doesn't finish on October the 31st, it BEGINS on November the 1st.  It is looking very likely that no deal is the way the uk is heading and we revert to WTO rules.  It will take years to broker deals with other countries, the EU - Japan deal took 7 years (I think; happy to be corrected) so it is not an overnight fix.  I would say you are correct in your assumption that the uk will try and broker deals with its "old empire" first.  It has to hope that its former colonies extend some sort of favour towards them.   The EU would not need to be in such a hurry to agree a deal with the uk, it already has trade deals with most of the countries of the world.

Independence.  Sterling would initially be used then we would have our own currency or the euro.  It would be OUR choice as an Independent nation.  The debt would be sorted out as part of negotiations, but I don't see that as a problem.  The EU have already stated that an Independent Scotland would be welcomed with open arms.  

 

You miss the point though. It is uncertainty that business doesn't like. Once it knows the rules it will adjust. That's always been the case. That's why I think most of the damage of Brexit has already been done. If we follow WTO rules, fine, business will adjust and will continue to trade. 

I think you are wrong about the EU though. The powerful German car industry is particularly desperate that the UK market should not be closed to them and Angela Merkle and her cabinet have already come under a great deal of pressure from that industry to ensure the UK gets a deal. France will be desperate to continue to sell wine and champagne to the UK market, as will Italy and a struggling Spain will be determined to continue to have fishing rights in our waters. Ireland have already stated that their country faces ruin in the event of a no deal Brexit, and they've been telling anyone that listens that everyone should be worried about the damage a no deal with the UK would do - not just to Ireland. 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

1 minute ago, Malky3 said:

Trust me it is true! 

I don't spend my wages in a foreign currency. Inflation remains low despite the weak pound. If I was a UK pensioner drawing a pension in the UK and living in Spain then your point would be valid. 

Do you drive? Have you been on holiday? 

Inflation has been substantially higher since the Brexit vote anyway, so I'm not sure what your point is.

[Malky3]

7 minutes ago, beefybake said:

You believe...., every chance.    You don't believe.   Heady stuff.

It's as valid as the shite you keep posting. 

[Malky3]

1 minute ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

Do you drive? Have you been on holiday? 

Inflation has been substantially higher since the Brexit vote anyway, so I'm not sure what your point is.

I drive. Petrol prices are lower now than they were in 2013. And much much lower than the SNP predicted in their White Paper. I get that some of the cost comes from the weak £ but there's a hell of a lot of other factors that affect oil prices as you well know. 

 

[Malky3]

7 minutes ago, Stinky Bone said:

But the figures of £10bn to £14bn are not based on Scotland as an Independent country.  Gers figures are not an accurate representation of the Scottish economy.  

I would prefer 10 years of Scottish Independence austerity, during which time I have the choice to vote for a Scottish political party (not necessarily SNP) that would take measures to try and mitigate the effects of austerity.  

You are right to be concerned about brexit, it hasn't even happened yet and it is looking bad for the future.  The project fear is a reality Malky, most of our medicines and medical supplies are imported from the EU.  For example, the uk does not produce Insulin, it imports it from the Netherlands.  

Tell me how any political party would mitigate the effects of austerity that would be forced on the country through Sterlingisation? 

As for pharmaceuticals - Donald Trump has already stated that they would be quick to offer the UK a trade deal. I believe they too make medicines and medical supplies 

Edited August 4, 2019 by Malky3

[beefybake]

6 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

You miss the point though. It is uncertainty that business doesn't like. Once it knows the rules it will adjust. That's always been the case. That's why I think most of the damage of Brexit has already been done. If we follow WTO rules, fine, business will adjust and will continue to trade. 

I think you are wrong about the EU though. The powerful German car industry is particularly desperate that the UK market should not be closed to them and Angela Merkle and her cabinet have already come under a great deal of pressure from that industry to ensure the UK gets a deal. France will be desperate to continue to sell wine and champagne to the UK market, as will Italy and a struggling Spain will be determined to continue to have fishing rights in our waters. Ireland have already stated that their country faces ruin in the event of a no deal Brexit, and they've been telling anyone that listens that everyone should be worried about the damage a no deal with the UK would do - not just to Ireland. 

A re-statement of the fallacy that 'they' are more desperate for  a deal than 'us'. 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

I drive. Petrol prices are lower now than they were in 2013. And much much lower than the SNP predicted in their White Paper. I get that some of the cost comes from the weak £ but there's a hell of a lot of other factors that affect oil prices as you well know. 
 

Theres only one thing keeping the pound down sweetcheeks.

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

5 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

I drive. Petrol prices are lower now than they were in 2013. And much much lower than the SNP predicted in their White Paper. I get that some of the cost comes from the weak £ but there's a hell of a lot of other factors that affect oil prices as you well know. 

 

Every single time you've filled your car since June 2016 you've spent more money than you otherwise would have because the pound has tanked. The relevance of your reply is zero.

Edited August 4, 2019 by Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo

[Blootoon87]

Tell me how any political party would mitigate the effects of austerity that would be forced on the country through Sterlingisation? 
As for pharmaceuticals - Donald Trump has already stated that they would be quick to offer the UK a trade deal. I believe they too make medicines and medical supplies 

Ah well if Donald Trump says so we should be fine then.

[Malky3]

16 minutes ago, beefybake said:

A re-statement of the fallacy that 'they' are more desperate for  a deal than 'us'. 

Nope. But evidence from the Irish PM that they are as desperate for one as we are.