When will indyref2 happen?

[Malky3]

I got excited today when a friend of mine told me that the next Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 would be the last for a generation. Then I realised that he was talking about a Nationalist "generation" which today appears to have been set at just over 5 years! It seems Nicola Sturgeon and her cronies want one of these Independence Referendums to be a permanent fixture on the political calendar 

This might be wishful thinking on my part but the way I see things playing out is this. 

Boris Johnson will get a Brexit withdrawal deal voted through the House of Commons on, or around the deadline of the 31st of October. Negotiations with the EU on anything always go to the wire but with more and more ERG members back on side, and with DUP making positive noises it's looking more hopeful now than it has done in a long time. Once that happens we'll get a General Election and Johnston will win a substantial majority. Hopefully after that Corbyn will be shown the door by Labour Party members and I genuinely hope Momentum are also told to beat it and a decent Labour Leader emerges from the rabble. 

In Scotland the outcome of the General Election will depend on how the SNP choose to play it. If they are determined to go ahead with demands for Indy Ref 2 next year it will polarise the electorate into Yes / No camps and I think the SNP will land up losing seats as a result. I can't see an Indy Ref 2 ever happening and I don't think there will be a huge appetite for it once the Brexit nonsense calms down - especially with the possibility of a strike amongst Police Scotland staff members at the turn of the year and all of the negative attention that will shine on the SNP government and their mismanagement of the emergency services! 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2019 by Malky3

[pandarilla]

You're a proper right winger eh?

Jeezo

[Malky3]

1 hour ago, pandarilla said:

You're a proper right winger eh?

Jeezo

No - I wouldn't say so. But we'll see how accurate I am fairly soon I reckon. 

[Granny Danger]

9 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

The strength of the "let's get Brexit done" vote down South means this is not going to happen...... unfortunately for the UK.

It's a gift for the cause of independence though

I actually think time is on our side. The polls have started shifting to show majority support for independence....slowly but steadily.

I understand folk wanting independence asap, however the giving Westminster enough rope strategy is working very well. 

Better waiting a few years and having a resounding clear undeniable mandate and therefore clear majority for yes, than having a narrow win or worse defeat that really likely would kill it for a generation

Let’s assume that time comes and we are still refused permission for IndyRef2.  What do we do then?

[Big Fifer]

11 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

One possibility.

Sturgeon resigns as First Minister.

Parliament would then have 28 days to agree to a new FM - if they don't there would be fresh Scottish Elections.

SNP and Greens stand on an IndyRef2 platform.
 

That still doesn't change anything though. SNP/Greens already have a majority in Holyrood do they not? They're both already pro-indy. Another election with two pro-indy parties being elected in a majority doesn't change the fact Westminster has still said no. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

That still doesn't change anything though. SNP/Greens already have a majority in Holyrood do they not? They're both already pro-indy. Another election with two pro-indy parties being elected in a majority doesn't change the fact Westminster has still said no. 

Neither stood on an IndyRef2 ticket last time round though.

[Big Fifer]

Just now, DeeTillEhDeh said:

49 minutes ago, Big Fifer said:

That still doesn't change anything though. SNP/Greens already have a majority in Holyrood do they not? They're both already pro-indy. Another election with two pro-indy parties being elected in a majority doesn't change the fact Westminster has still said no. 

Neither stood on an IndyRef2 ticket last time round though.

OK but if they do, and say they get a few more seats, that still doesn't change anything. Aye it looks more like Scotland has an appetite for indy/another referendum, but Westminster has at that stage still refused. I really doubt that they're going to cave after the Greens/SNP collect a few more seats on an Indy campaign ticket. 

[git-intae-thum]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

Let’s assume that time comes and we are still refused permission for IndyRef2.  What do we do then?

What about a new national covenant.

A modern version formed from the individual blockchain signature of each  registered voter.

This could be gathered over a period of months. Once the 50% threshold of the Scottish electorate is reached, it would be clear, irrefutable evidence. And just as importantly it would be secure but completely transparent and capable of being viewed and examined by interested observers.

Clear enough to show the settled will of the Scottish people.

It would then be over to the Scotcourts for lawyers to argue and them put into practice the sovereignty of the people and the much taunted claim of right.

Its surely inconceivable that by that stage Westminster would not comply,

Edited October 16, 2019 by git-intae-thum

[Suspect Device]

On 15/10/2019 at 08:12, git-intae-thum said:

 and a fantastic world record postal vote. They even managed to get dead punters to mark their ballots.....impressive

My Mum actually did. Postal ballot before coming on holiday with us and died on the Monday before the vote. She voted No. 

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Fucking hell. Good luck explaining Blockchain to a pensioner without a computer.

Good luck explaining it to a non pensioner WITH a computer..............

[git-intae-thum]

8 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Fucking hell. Good luck explaining Blockchain to a pensioner without a computer.

Lol....I don't think the non technical would have to know more than the equivalent of how to log on to a site and press a button.

[Granny Danger]

15 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

What about a new national covenant.

A modern version formed from the individual blockchain signature of each  registered voter.

This could be gathered over a period of months. Once the 50% threshold of the Scottish electorate is reached, it would be clear, irrefutable evidence. And just as importantly it would be secure but completely transparent and capable of being viewed and examined by interested observers.

Clear enough to show the settled will of the Scottish people.

It would then be over to the Scotcourts for lawyers to argue and them put into practice the sovereignty of the people and the much taunted claim of right.

Its surely inconceivable that by that stage Westminster would not comply,

And if they do?

I am not trying to be obtuse.  I accept Sturgeon’s position about asking permission for another Referendum, but what happens if that’s refused next year, and in three years time, and in five years time?

It’s a realistic prospect.

[git-intae-thum]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

And if they do?

I am not trying to be obtuse.  I accept Sturgeon’s position about asking permission for another Referendum, but what happens if that’s refused next year, and in three years time, and in five years time?

It’s a realistic prospect.

If the Scots courts dissolved the union, the next move would be Westminsters.

It would obviously all be very messy which is why an agreed referendum and negotiated settlement is the sensible route.

[tirso]

And if they do?
I am not trying to be obtuse.  I accept Sturgeon’s position about asking permission for another Referendum, but what happens if that’s refused next year, and in three years time, and in five years time?
It’s a realistic prospect.

The only conceivable option is for the next Holyrood election to seek an independence mandate . Ie SNP / Green vote is a vote for independence. Possibly with the two parties merging into a Yes Scotland ticket.

This is by far not the option anyone would want to take but the only one with any legitimacy to either gain Indy or pressure for a legal vote.

This is plan b. But there's no point raising it until London says No and no options are left.

In this case a clear majority of both votes and seats would be required.

[Malky3]

3 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

4 hours ago, Big Fifer said:

That still doesn't change anything though. SNP/Greens already have a majority in Holyrood do they not? They're both already pro-indy. Another election with two pro-indy parties being elected in a majority doesn't change the fact Westminster has still said no. 

Neither stood on an IndyRef2 ticket last time round though.

I'd agree with you there. The SNP almost looked embarrassed about independence and stood on a claim that they would stick up for Scotland. 

Now they claim they stood on a mandate for indy ref 2 and Sturgeon yesterday claimed her job was to deliver indpendence. Surely any No voter who gave the SNP or the Greens their vote last time round will have seen through the fasade now

[DAFC.]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the SNP manifesto in 2016 state they would seek a fresh referendum should a materialistic change take place eg Scotland taken out of EU against its will?

They 100% have a mandate, and it would be extremely unwise on Westminster's part to deny another referendum. 

 

[Granny Danger]

14 minutes ago, DAFC. said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the SNP manifesto in 2016 state they would seek a fresh referendum should a materialistic change take place eg Scotland taken out of EU against its will?

They 100% have a mandate, and it would be extremely unwise on Westminster's part to deny another referendum. 

 

If we leave the EU then yes we have a mandate.  It may be unwise but what can we do about it?

[beefybake]

13 hours ago, pandarilla said:

You're a proper right winger eh?

Jeezo

He's a troll. Don't give oxygen to a troll.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I meant the Scottish Parliament elections.

[pandarilla]

He's a troll. Don't give oxygen to a troll.

Yeah but you can't treat all right wing posters like that - otherwise it's just the same views being put forward.