RedRob72 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I'm sure they'll be super-excited to have Dundee's premier window licker on their side. incoming warning point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Last September the Yes vote was approximately 45%. Recent polls have shown the Yes vote to be round about 48%. You could say a rise of 3% since last year. It would be good if they could do a poll for the 18th September 2015 to see where the Yes vote stands one year on from the vote. Could a 2 or 3 percent rise each year be feasible or achievable? Sept. 2015 - 48% Sept. 2016 - 50% Sept. 2017 - 52% Sept. 2018 - 54% Sept. 2019 - 56% Sept. 2020 - 58% Of course the polls before the referendum converged on YES being 48%. So if you compare polls post referendum with polls pre referendum support is unchanged. Indeed the last poll I seen had yes on 47%, lower than polls before the referendum. Comparing polls with the actual result is a bit misleading, given the polls so underestimated the no vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevthedee Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 He never specified what sort of generation. Mayfly. Video games console. Otter. Think he did,thank god for the unbiased bbc http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29196661 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Of course the polls before the referendum converged on YES being 48%. So if you compare polls post referendum with polls pre referendum support is unchanged. Indeed the last poll I seen had yes on 47%, lower than polls before the referendum. Comparing polls with the actual result is a bit misleading, given the polls so underestimated the no vote. Except that post referendum the general trend amongst the pollsters has been to weight by recalled referendum vote, thus pinning all respondents against that. Prior to doing so, the first few post referendum polls were showing yes at 51/52%, while after the introduction of recalled vote weighting it's around 47/48%. Thus you are correct to say that the original polling, with no stake in the ground to mark against ended up over estimating the Yes vote by 3% or so, and consistently did so, but afterwards appears to have corrected for it (i.e.bringing that 51 down to 48). In other words we can be reasonably sure that the 'rise' to 48% in recent polls is a real phenomenon and not the result of a floating poll number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Of course the polls before the referendum converged on YES being 48%. So if you compare polls post referendum with polls pre referendum support is unchanged. Indeed the last poll I seen had yes on 47%, lower than polls before the referendum. Comparing polls with the actual result is a bit misleading, given the polls so underestimated the no vote. Hard to tell what sort of impact it will have within a decade, but the fact that a large percentage of No voters were of pensionable age has to be considered. They won't be around forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Last September the Yes vote was approximately 45%. Recent polls have shown the Yes vote to be round about 48%. You could say a rise of 3% since last year. It would be good if they could do a poll for the 18th September 2015 to see where the Yes vote stands one year on from the vote. Could a 2 or 3 percent rise each year be feasible or achievable? Sept. 2015 - 48% Sept. 2016 - 50% Sept. 2017 - 52% Sept. 2018 - 54% Sept. 2019 - 56% Sept. 2020 - 58% It'll be at 110% by 2046. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Bojangles Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 How about once in a generation then,that sounds way better cheers salmond.I seem to remember hearing from somewhere something like there's been a change in leadership of the SNP. Also, he always said he believed it would be a once in a *whatever*. As in, he didn't think we would be able to get another chance. To blindly ignore the wishes of the electorate would be political suicide, especially since the prime function of the party has always been to achieve this. Just imagine what would happen if, say, the Labour Party completely ignored the wishes of their base and went chasing the Tories towards a mutually assured neoliberal destruction. I would imagine such a scenario would see base leave the party en masse to look for a party which will represent them. Or they might just not bother voting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 2024 earliest to have another go I actually wouldn't mind waiting until 2024 tbh. Obviously I'd take a 50% +1 vote outcome tomorrow but really I'd prefer a good 60/65%+ outcome whenever it does happen. Chris is correct that there are too many variables to know exacly what will happen but I'd imagine it will take a good 10 years for the demographics to shift sufficiently in our favour, to really make it a gimme. Hopefully the SNP can communicate something along the lines of asking the Scottish electorate for a mandate to stage another unspecfic future referendum and if a Brexit or some other event that hastens Independence occurs, they have the ability to get it done there and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevthedee Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I seem to remember hearing from somewhere something like there's been a change in leadership of the SNP. Also, he always said he believed it would be a once in a *whatever*. As in, he didn't think we would be able to get another chance. To blindly ignore the wishes of the electorate would be political suicide, especially since the prime function of the party has always been to achieve this. Just imagine what would happen if, say, the Labour Party completely ignored the wishes of their base and went chasing the Tories towards a mutually assured neoliberal destruction. I would imagine such a scenario would see base leave the party en masse to look for a party which will represent them. Or they might just not bother voting. Sturgeon played a big part in the indy campaign as dfm now as fm her goals with stay the same as salmonds, hardly a real change is it.as for respecting the electorate well havent seen much off that towards the result last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Sturgeon played a big part in the indy campaign as dfm now as fm her goals with stay the same as salmonds, hardly a real change is it.as for respecting the electorate well havent seen much off that towards the result last year Haven't we? Are the SNP currently preparing the country for Independence in 2016 as they hoped they would be? There's no sign of another referendum in their draft conference agenda and all they've done since Septemeber '14 is - with massive success - stand on a platform of campaigning for the further devolution pledged by Westminster. In the eyes of Unionist arch-SNPbaders "respecting the result" of the Referendum = Why won't the SNP just go awaaaaaay!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz FFC Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Hard to tell what sort of impact it will have within a decade, but the fact that a large percentage of No voters were of pensionable age has to be considered. They won't be around forever. You heard him. All yes voters go out tonight and put pensioners to the long sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 You heard him. All yes voters go out tonight and put pensioners to the long sleep. Well, you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antiochas III Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 as for respecting the electorate well havent seen much off that towards the result last year Go on then, try answering this one then since your complete failure everywhere else. Give me 5 examples, hell no, give me 2 (two) examples where our Nicola has refused to accept the electorate in respect of the result last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I would just say it was once in a generation and it failed so its not happening again anytime soon YES voters.I can see how Nicola has to be cagey to keep the "Braveheart" types on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I would just say it was once in a generation and it failed so its not happening again anytime soon YES voters.I can see how Nicola has to be cagey to keep the "Braveheart" types on board. Tbf, nobody gives a f**k what you would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skyline Drifter Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Go on then, try answering this one then since your complete failure everywhere else. Give me 5 examples, hell no, give me 2 (two) examples where our Nicola has refused to accept the electorate in respect of the result last year As far as I can see, by and large Sturgeon and the SNP have pretty much played it straight bat so far and made no attempt to rock the boat as regards the result of the referendum (the exception being Salmond himself). The same cannot be said however for the posters on social media who are basically proposing that we hold referendum after referendum until we get the result they want, which is an odd idea of democracy. Witness this thread for a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 As far as I can see, by and large Sturgeon and the SNP have pretty much played it straight bat so far and made no attempt to rock the boat as regards the result of the referendum (the exception being Salmond himself). The same cannot be said however for the posters on social media who are basically proposing that we hold referendum after referendum until we get the result they want, which is an odd idea of democracy. Witness this thread for a start. What's more odd about that than having one referendum and then locking in that decision for a lengthy period of time, during which the electorate could change it's mind. What's more democratic or respectful about that? Can unionists not just admit, they basically never want another referendum because they don't want to lose one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 What's more odd about that than having one referendum and then locking in that decision for a lengthy period of time, during which the electorate could change it's mind. What's more democratic or respectful about that? Can unionists not just admit, they basically never want another referendum because they don't want to lose one? I often wonder if Unionists shake because of their craven deferentiality or is it just fear of The Only Show In Town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 As far as I can see, by and large Sturgeon and the SNP have pretty much played it straight bat so far and made no attempt to rock the boat as regards the result of the referendum (the exception being Salmond himself). The same cannot be said however for the posters on social media who are basically proposing that we hold referendum after referendum until we get the result they want, which is an odd idea of democracy. Witness this thread for a start. It's the European way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 What's more odd about that than having one referendum and then locking in that decision for a lengthy period of time, during which the electorate could change it's mind. What's more democratic or respectful about that? Can unionists not just admit, they basically never want another referendum because they don't want to lose one? I'd welcome another Ref tomorrow and the result would still be No, would you accept that or just rant on for the next 12 months demanding another? The electorate would I believe go for devo-max however and remain as part of the United Kingdom. The option should have been given last September, I think it would have satisfied the majority of voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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