Granny Danger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Maybe this is an uncomfortable question for all concerned, but given what has happened recently elsewhere it's a real possibility. What happens if at some point in the future a democratically elected Scottish Government, following a manifesto commitment that is endorsed in an election, want to hold another referendum on Independence and the UK government say no? I reckon the reason that the government of the day the last time around was so sanguine was that no one thought that 45% of those who voted would vote YES. I don't want to have a debate here about how likely a YES vote will be in the future, there's other threads devoted to that, but rather what the real practical implcations would be. Sure there will be cries of 'constitutional crisis' but what in real terms could we do and how strong would the will of Jock Public ( ) be to actually do anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'd think that pressure from outside the UK would be the best bet. Honestly don't see what can be done if they just decide to say no as Westminster just doesn't give a f**k about Scotland. Whatever we do, they'd just look over their shoulders with a "meh" attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That situation would please those who don't see why we need Westminster's approval, as it would give them plenty ammunition. It would also please those who want the uppity jocks put back in their place. Win/win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'd imagine Westminster would fight tooth and nail to stop another referendum. As you surmise, they probably thought the gap between Yes and No would be much clearer. They've tried (and failed, as they're kidding no-one) to spin the result as a huge defeat, when actually a single figure (6%) swing would see a Yes win. That's too close for comfort for the establishment types and they know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nutz_the_Squirrel Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 War. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Meh. The louder element of the Yes movement would make noise. The louder element of the Unionists would tell them to sit down and shut up. Most people would get on with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 If the SNP have a majority at Holyrood and most of the Scottish seats in Westminster they'll have a mandate and I've no reason to see why the UK would deny a vote, so long as it's not every two to three years. We're not Spain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'd think that pressure from outside the UK would be the best bet. Honestly don't see what can be done if they just decide to say no as Westminster just doesn't give a f**k about Scotland. Whatever we do, they'd just look over their shoulders with a "meh" attitude. Dont think the International community would throw any weight behind another Ref until at least 2024. Even if and when they did what difference would it make to the rUK governments resolve? Cameron took a huge gamble on the Union and it paid off. Perhaps only in the short term but no-one other than committed nationalists would expect him to roll the dice again so soon. Think you're gonna have to wait a wee while longer. It still won't be a guarantee, plenty of time for things to change, particularly with regards to the Scottish Governments performance and record over the next few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 In all honesty, THEY wouldn't have much choice: A consultative referendum with a positive mandate would be more than enough to force the UK into recognising the plain fact that Scotland wants out. To try and hold onto it afte rthat would paint the rUK in a very bad light, damaging it internationally and hurting a lot of work that they want to try and do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BallochSonsFan Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 If the SNP have a majority at Holyrood and most of the Scottish seats in Westminster they'll have a mandate and I've no reason to see why the UK would deny a vote, so long as it's not every two to three years. We're not Spain. No they wouldn't. In the straight up yes/no vote, the yes side lost. Splitting the no votes across 3 parties doesn't suddenly give the SNP a mandate. The only way the SNP have a mandate is if their vote numbers exceed the total number of votes for the 3 unionist parties. It's not a mandate if the number of people backing them is still less than the number of people who don't back them just because it's now counted in a full election rather than a single issue referendum and their opposition is split over 3 parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Theyll only have a mandate if they put a commitment to a referendum in their manifesto, particularly as the SNPs success is due in no small part to attracting no voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 No they wouldn't. In the straight up yes/no vote, the yes side lost. Splitting the no votes across 3 parties doesn't suddenly give the SNP a mandate. The only way the SNP have a mandate is if their vote numbers exceed the total number of votes for the 3 unionist parties. It's not a mandate if the number of people backing them is still less than the number of people who don't back them just because it's now counted in a full election rather than a single issue referendum and their opposition is split over 3 parties. You don't actually know what a mandate is, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 In all honesty, THEY wouldn't have much choice: A consultative referendum with a positive mandate would be more than enough to force the UK into recognising the plain fact that Scotland wants out. To try and hold onto it afte rthat would paint the rUK in a very bad light, damaging it internationally and hurting a lot of work that they want to try and do. In theory yes. But look at catalonia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 You don't actually know what a mandate is, do you? For Christ sakes don't ask him on one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 In theory yes. But look at catalonia Spain has a different historical precedent with Catalonia than the UK has with any of it's ex imperial colonies or indeed the ROI. It's unlikely a UK government seemingly bogged down in constitutional deadlock with a recalcitrant Scotland would be re-elected. It's just different historical and poltical stimuli at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 No they wouldn't. In the straight up yes/no vote, the yes side lost. Splitting the no votes across 3 parties doesn't suddenly give the SNP a mandate. The only way the SNP have a mandate is if their vote numbers exceed the total number of votes for the 3 unionist parties. It's not a mandate if the number of people backing them is still less than the number of people who don't back them just because it's now counted in a full election rather than a single issue referendum and their opposition is split over 3 parties. We don't have to worry about the UK mandate then as the SNP polled 50% which was more that all the unionist parties combined. Only Holyrood to go to meet your definition of a mandate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 In all honesty, THEY wouldn't have much choice: A consultative referendum with a positive mandate would be more than enough to force the UK into recognising the plain fact that Scotland wants out. To try and hold onto it afte rthat would paint the rUK in a very bad light, damaging it internationally and hurting a lot of work that they want to try and do. Are you sure about that? Quite a lot of countries worldwide clearly desire independence and act independent but no one recognises them because the country they want to break away from said no. I'm thinking the likes of Catalunya and Northern Cyprus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 No they wouldn't. The only way the SNP have a mandate is if their vote numbers exceed the total number of votes for the 3 unionist parties. Which will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Are you sure about that? Quite a lot of countries worldwide clearly desire independence and act independent but no one recognises them because the country they want to break away from said no. I'm thinking the likes of Catalunya and Northern Cyprus And your point is ? The UK have already recognised Scotland's right to self determination. The precedent has been set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 No they wouldn't. In the straight up yes/no vote, the yes side lost. Splitting the no votes across 3 parties doesn't suddenly give the SNP a mandate. The only way the SNP have a mandate is if their vote numbers exceed the total number of votes for the 3 unionist parties. It's not a mandate if the number of people backing them is still less than the number of people who don't back them just because it's now counted in a full election rather than a single issue referendum and their opposition is split over 3 parties. If they have a majority of the seats they'd be able to implement their policies. If their pre-election manifesto says they will hold a referendum if elected then they'd have a mandate to do so. Elections aren't based on total votes but on number of seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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