The St. Mirren FC 2016/17 Thread.

[HoBNob]

While that does look dreadful you can still finish 9th and stay up, all you then need to think about is getting the better of Dumbarton or ourselves.


And we're shit.

[Scosha]

2 hours ago, Coventry Saint said:

Thought I'd take a look at some numbers to work out exactly how fucked we are. Those of a sensitive disposition, or the easily bored, might want to look away now.

 

I've taken data from the past 10 years, and the average 9th-placed team finishes with 35.7 points; the average 8th-placed finishes with 38.5. Both of those have been skewed by the season with Hearts, Hibs and the plucky new team, so removing those abnormally low totals (8th and 9th both had 27 points) we are left with 39.7 and 36.6.

Let's call those 40 and 37 points 'needed' to finish 8th and 9th respectively.

We currently have four points from 10 games. To nick 8th and avoid a playoff, therefore, we need 36 points from our remaining 26 games. We need to convert our current rate of 0.4ppg to 1.3ppg.

12 wins from 26 games, then. Not going to happen. 

Let's say we get eight draws (not unreasonable based on current form): that means we'd need nine additional wins to make reasonably sure.

 

Normally, you'd say this isn't that daunting a prospect, but you'd assume we're going to lose tomorrow, so we'll need 36 from 25 games...

Of course, we don't necessarily need to match previous 8th-placed scores, we only need to beat 9th (ie one fewer win required over the whole season). On three occasions in the past 10 years, 9th has equaled or beaten 40 points (40, 42 and 40). So we can't take anything for granted.

Probably safe to start getting worried now. We really need at least four wins on the board by Christmas.

4 points from the first quarter would obviously suggest relegation however St Mirren do have a decent squad and should be doing better. The squad we had the year we were relegated was 100x worse on paper than your current lot. Maybe the new manager and a couple of signings in January will do the trick. It's nice to see us doing better in the league than our rivals but I'd hate for either of us to be relegated after just getting the derbies back. You can keep this miserable run going for one more day in the hope we'll beat you lot tomorrow night then pick yourselves up.

[The Moonster]

2 hours ago, Coventry Saint said:

Thought I'd take a look at some numbers to work out exactly how fucked we are. Those of a sensitive disposition, or the easily bored, might want to look away now.

 

I've taken data from the past 10 years, and the average 9th-placed team finishes with 35.7 points; the average 8th-placed finishes with 38.5. Both of those have been skewed by the season with Hearts, Hibs and the plucky new team, so removing those abnormally low totals (8th and 9th both had 27 points) we are left with 39.7 and 36.6.

Let's call those 40 and 37 points 'needed' to finish 8th and 9th respectively.

We currently have four points from 10 games. To nick 8th and avoid a playoff, therefore, we need 36 points from our remaining 26 games. We need to convert our current rate of 0.4ppg to 1.3ppg.

12 wins from 26 games, then. Not going to happen. 

Let's say we get eight draws (not unreasonable based on current form): that means we'd need nine additional wins to make reasonably sure.

 

Normally, you'd say this isn't that daunting a prospect, but you'd assume we're going to lose tomorrow, so we'll need 36 from 25 games...

Of course, we don't necessarily need to match previous 8th-placed scores, we only need to beat 9th (ie one fewer win required over the whole season). On three occasions in the past 10 years, 9th has equaled or beaten 40 points (40, 42 and 40). So we can't take anything for granted.

Probably safe to start getting worried now. We really need at least four wins on the board by Christmas.

Stranger things have happened. We had 5 points at the end of November in 2012 and finished the season with 43 (and Jack Ross was part of that revival). As Grant says, whilst that is bad reading and is a woeful record, it's not as if you're marooned down here, you've got two equally shit teams struggling to find points as well which means in reality you maybe won't need as much as you think.

[NorthBank]

On 29/10/2016 at 18:46, sonsanorak said:

Big week for st mirren now.

And to be fair, more winnable games this week.

Is there any improvement under Ross?

There was a huge improvement the day Rae left! Allan McManus changed the formation from 4-4-2 to 4-2-3-1 which improved performances and had the players looking more comfortable in the positions they were playing in. Ross started against Dundee Utd with that formation and although we lost the team continued the improvement that McManus had started. Against Hibs the formation was changed to a 3-5-2 but that may have been down to injuries to a couple of key players (we only had 3 fit defenders!)

Rae started with a 4-4-2 every single game and it was not working with players playing out of position and hoofball being the only tactic so anything after that had to be an improvement. Early days for Ross but its certainly been better on the eye in the two games has had.

[Coventry Saint]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/oct/31/referee-abandons-game-moaning-fan-holmer-green-edgware

Games would never even kick off in Paisley...

[sergie's no1 fan]

Need to hope Jack Ross can work miracles in January, hard to blame Alex Rae when not many of us were complaining about the signings in the summer, albeit it was recognised the squad was top heavy with strikers.

Been on a downwards slope for years, the cup win papered a lot of cracks, easy to point the finger at the old board but they made it clear they would only sell to buyers with the clubs best interests at heart. 

C&P'd from the derby thread. What now? Do we have the fight for a relegation battle? Fans morale is the lowest it's been for 20 years. 

[AMMjag]

Will St Mirren win a game of football ever again? Genuine question.

[vikingTON]

On 10/31/2016 at 18:39, NorthBank said:

There was a huge improvement the day Rae left! Allan McManus changed the formation from 4-4-2 to 4-2-3-1 which improved performances and had the players looking more comfortable in the positions they were playing in. Ross started against Dundee Utd with that formation and although we lost the team continued the improvement that McManus had started. Against Hibs the formation was changed to a 3-5-2 but that may have been down to injuries to a couple of key players (we only had 3 fit defenders!)

Rae started with a 4-4-2 every single game and it was not working with players playing out of position and hoofball being the only tactic so anything after that had to be an improvement. Early days for Ross but its certainly been better on the eye in the two games has had.

[Coventry Saint]

I'd sell Mallan. We'd probably get peanuts for him, but he's our only asset. Send Shankland or Hardie back.

 

Use the freed-up cash to overhaul the midfield. By which I mean, get some midfielders. Shitfest our way to a play-off placed and hope for the best.

[Scosha]

I'd sell Mallan. We'd probably get peanuts for him, but he's our only asset. Send Shankland or Hardie back.

 

Use the freed-up cash to overhaul the midfield. By which I mean, get some midfielders. Shitfest our way to a play-off placed and hope for the best.

I've said on this thread before and was told I was wrong, but Mallan is hopeless. He might have a decent delivery from a corner/free-kick but every time we've played you over the past year he has looked a below average player.

[geo87]

Genuinely can't see any one paying much of anything for him. He's been horrific this season, and as another poster said, take away his set peices and he doesn't look to have much else currently. The amount of simple passes he can't make is shocking (albeit no worse than anyone else in the side).

We need a total clear out, and maybe relegation may not be such a bad thing and allow us to pretty much start again. Would be the time to do it with new owners etc and give Ross a chance to build from scratch if he's going to be here long term

[Coventry Saint]

1 minute ago, Scosha said:

 

I've said on this thread before and was told I was wrong, but Mallan is hopeless. He might have a decent delivery from a corner/free-kick but every time we've played you over the past year he has looked a below average player.

 

He's a luxury player; needs to be in a decent side. Obviously we are not one. There isn't an attacking midfielder in the world who looks good when he's got no platform behind him.

Having said that, there's no excuse for not finding your man or retaining the ball. Just need to hope Dundee's 'derisory' bid is still on the table.

[Coventry Saint]

Just now, geo87 said:

Genuinely can't see any one paying much of anything for him. He's been horrific this season, and as another poster said, take away his set peices and he doesn't look to have much else currently. The amount of simple passes he can't make is shocking (albeit no worse than anyone else in the side).

We need a total clear out, and maybe relegation may not be such a bad thing and allow us to pretty much start again. Would be the time to do it with new owners etc and give Ross a chance to build from scratch if he's going to be here long term

Only problem is, we said that about coming down to this league. 

[Stellaboz]

You'll beat us in the Alba game. Absolutely no question about it, a comfortable yet scrappy win that'll do your players the world of confidence and take you above us and send us to the bottom. You'll be fine.

[glenburn bud]

4 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

You'll beat us in the Alba game. Absolutely no question about it, a comfortable yet scrappy win that'll do your players the world of confidence and take you above us and send us to the bottom. You'll be fine.

Have you been watching us ? Rae has left behind the worst squad in living memory and it's going to be a long haul for Jack Ross rebuilding the current mess.

[Ludo*1]

The derisory bid probably will still be on the table in January from us. Not that I expect any U-turns from your board as despite his shite season they'll still recognise his overall talent.

If you lot go down, however, I do reckon we would act like vultures.

[mrcat1990]

Only problem is, we said that about coming down to this league. 

Was going to post the same. How many relegations until you have a team able to bounce back with? Fwiw I can't see Saints going any lower than League One.

[Coventry Saint]

49 minutes ago, mrcat1990 said:

Was going to post the same. How many relegations until you have a team able to bounce back with? Fwiw I can't see Saints going any lower than League One.

 

I'll get called deluded, but I still think we'll pull this one out the bag. 

Slightly separately, in terms of mounting an eventual promotion challenge again, I've said before on here, we're not the sort of team that is going to come out on top of a league containing DUFC, Hibs, Sevco, etc. We might need to wait a few years until the 'big' teams stop getting themselves relegated, and rebuild from there.

[sergie's no1 fan]

I'll get called deluded, but I still think we'll pull this one out the bag. 

Slightly separately, in terms of mounting an eventual promotion challenge again, I've said before on here, we're not the sort of team that is going to come out on top of a league containing DUFC, Hibs, Sevco, etc. We might need to wait a few years until the 'big' teams stop getting themselves relegated, and rebuild from there.

Way too early for any team to be relegated yet.

Will need Jack to work some magic in January though.

[Colkitto]

8 minutes ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

 

Way too early for any team to be relegated yet.

Will need Jack to work some magic in January though.

 

Whether you like it or not it's November and you're sitting at the bottom of the league without a win.

You are locked in a relegation battle with Dumbarton & Dunfermline. You are 10 POINTS  behind Ayr.

Don't be naive to think relegation can't happen - it can!

It's going to be a tough fight to get away from the 3 way battle and you don't seem to have many fighters in your squad at the moment