Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[welshbairn]

If they can sort out a deal for NI so that they can simultaneously be part of both the EU and UK single markets, bit like Liechtenstein vis-a-vis Switzerland and the EU, it would set a great precedent for an independent Scotland.

[Jacksgranda]

36 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If they can sort out a deal for NI so that they can simultaneously be part of both the EU and UK single markets, bit like Liechtenstein vis-a-vis Switzerland and the EU, it would set a great precedent for an independent Scotland.

But Scotland won't have an EU border come Brexit, unlike us, who may end up with the best of both worlds until everything is sorted out.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said:

But Scotland won't have an EU border come Brexit, unlike us, who may end up with the best of both worlds until everything is sorted out.

Someone should tell the DUP that. We've got a similar border problem to NI, but in reverse. Land border with the rUK, North Sea with the EU. If they can sort out a solution for NI we'll be laughing.

[Donathan]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Someone should tell the DUP that. We've got a similar border problem to NI, but in reverse. Land border with the rUK, North Sea with the EU. If they can sort out a solution for NI we'll be laughing.

 

We'd surely just have a hard border at Carlisle if Scotland went independent and no one would really question it? It's not like a border at Carlisle would violate any historical agreement and no one really cares enough about Anglo-Scottish relations to have terrorist consequences. Okay some "staunch" types may be a tad seething but I'd imagine a hard land border would be the solution with no sea border between Scotland and mainland Europe.

[welshbairn]

4 hours ago, Donathan said:

 

We'd surely just have a hard border at Carlisle if Scotland went independent and no one would really question it? It's not like a border at Carlisle would violate any historical agreement and no one really cares enough about Anglo-Scottish relations to have terrorist consequences. Okay some "staunch" types may be a tad seething but I'd imagine a hard land border would be the solution with no sea border between Scotland and mainland Europe.

Nobody wants customs checks or having to get a work permit to do a job in Newcastle. The bureaucracy would be a pain in the arse, and enough to kill a Yes vote, especially if Ireland doesn't get sorted. Terrorism is a small part of the threat for Ireland, tariffs and smuggling are a much bigger issue.

Edited September 13, 2019 by welshbairn

[NorthernLights]

The Evening Telegraph with their very own highly scientific poll...

https://www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/fp/tele-poll-suggests-snp-could-win-every-scottish-seat-at-a-general-election/

[Detournement]

A bit of insight into how poll rigging works.

[Colkitto]

19 hours ago, Detournement said:

A bit of insight into how poll rigging works.

Going back I remember when they asked the independence question.

How would you vote if Scotland was going to be ripped out the UK and cast aside like a pariah State - Yes or No?

Then we had just ask the referendum question. But sneaky pollsters would have a preamble of doom and gloom before asking the question.

There are lots of dodges with polling but done correctly it can be pretty accurate 

[NotThePars]

It’s just the dullest genre of discourse which is presumably why dorlomin spends every waking moment pouring over them.

[Colkitto]

17 hours ago, Colkitto said:

Going back I remember when they asked the independence question.

How would you vote if Scotland was going to be ripped out the UK and cast aside like a pariah State - Yes or No?

Then we had just ask the referendum question. But sneaky pollsters would have a preamble of doom and gloom before asking the question.

There are lots of dodges with polling but done correctly it can be pretty accurate 

As a coincidence I only posted this yesterday about manipulating the polls leading upto the 2014 independence referendum.

Well 5 years on to the very day the Unionists are still at it with a compliant Unionist media.

The poll was commissioned by the staunch anti-independence group Scotland in Union.

They didn't ask the question used in the referendum ballot, but used another one to get the result for their propaganda machine.

5 years on and it's still  just as pathetic...

 

  

[Glenanover]

11 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

As a coincidence I only posted this yesterday about manipulating the polls leading upto the 2014 independence referendum.

Well 5 years on to the very day the Unionists are still at it with a compliant Unionist media.

The poll was commissioned by the staunch anti-independence group Scotland in Union.

They didn't ask the question used in the referendum ballot, but used another one to get the result for their propaganda machine.

5 years on and it's still  just as pathetic...

 

  

What a beautiful headline.

[Colkitto]

36 minutes ago, Glenanover said:

What a beautiful headline.

Naw really...

[dirty dingus]

1 hour ago, Glenanover said:

What a beautiful headline.

I can see how you like the headline as I can imagine you down the bowling club eating a clotted cream scone in chatter with the blue rinse brigade discussing Cameron and Goves wifes rocky brexity friendship.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

I can see how you like the headline as I can imagine you down the bowling club eating a clotted cream scone in chatter with the blue rinse brigade discussing Cameron and Goves wifes rocky brexity friendship.

Don't be daft. The c**t barely leaves his bedroom [emoji23]

[oneteaminglasgow]

Don't be daft. The c**t barely leaves his bedroom [emoji23]

His wife thinks the BBC are a Scottish nationalist institution.

I wouldn’t leave my bedroom either if I was having to put up with that.

[renton]

Desperate stuff from Scotland in Union. 

1. They'd never get that question because it isn't clear about it's outcome. Remain in the United Kingdom is clear enough, but Leave the United Kingdom isn't. Leave to become independent? Leave to become a crown dependency? Leave to become the 51st State of the USA? The electoral commission would never go for it. Also, the 2014 question has the advantage of having been asked before, and therefore grants a bit of clarity to all involved.

2. Even if they did get the question they wanted: "Do you want to TEAR asunder the GREATEST political union of ALL TIME for NARROW MINDED SHORTBREAD NATIONALISM GSTQFTP" then there is evidence that as people become educated on the issues, the format of the question matters less. At the moment they can obfuscate using the EU question to skew their polls, but the likliehood of that being a big factor on polling day are less certain.

Also noted that Murdo Fraser thinks their should be a 2/3rds majority in favour, again that's a matter of closing the gate after the horse bolts. The two previous referendums on Indy and the EU were decided on simple majority. You can argue that this was to the detriment of the outcome at least in the 2nd instance where we are still trying to plow through the contradictions of that referendum but at the same time, changing it now would look like gross gerrymandering.

[Donathan]

24 minutes ago, renton said:

Desperate stuff from Scotland in Union. 

1. They'd never get that question because it isn't clear about it's outcome. Remain in the United Kingdom is clear enough, but Leave the United Kingdom isn't. Leave to become independent? Leave to become a crown dependency? Leave to become the 51st State of the USA? The electoral commission would never go for it. Also, the 2014 question has the advantage of having been asked before, and therefore grants a bit of clarity to all involved.

2. Even if they did get the question they wanted: "Do you want to TEAR asunder the GREATEST political union of ALL TIME for NARROW MINDED SHORTBREAD NATIONALISM GSTQFTP" then there is evidence that as people become educated on the issues, the format of the question matters less. At the moment they can obfuscate using the EU question to skew their polls, but the likliehood of that being a big factor on polling day are less certain.

Also noted that Murdo Fraser thinks their should be a 2/3rds majority in favour, again that's a matter of closing the gate after the horse bolts. The two previous referendums on Indy and the EU were decided on simple majority. You can argue that this was to the detriment of the outcome at least in the 2nd instance where we are still trying to plow through the contradictions of that referendum but at the same time, changing it now would look like gross gerrymandering.

 

I thought the reason behind the leave/remain question for the EU vote was because both sides wanted the "yes" side and couldn't agree over who wanted it? Remain voters wanted "Should the UK remain in the EU?" and Brexiteers wanted "Should the UK leave the EU". The electoral commission had to come up with an unbiased compromise.

 

I'd imagine "Better together" will come up with some similar fuckery for indyref2 to avoid a yes/no question, but agree with you that it won't be leave/remain. I expect a question to be framed along the lines of:

 

"Should Scotland remain in the UK or be an independent country?"

 

Remain in the UK []

Be an independent country []

 

 

[Suspect Device]

It's a worry that there can be such a massive swing because of the wording of the question. Are people really that thick?

 

[renton]

6 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

It's a worry that there can be such a massive swing because of the wording of the question. Are people really that thick?

 

It's more people not paying attention.

[cyderspaceman]

Just now, renton said:

It's more people not paying attention.

Sorry. What?