Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Tactical voting might make that a Tory wipeout.

[GordonS]

I don't understand where the YouGov = Tory myth comes from. In their last four polls before indyref they had Yes within 6 points of No. Their polling in Scotland is pretty accurate and definitely doesn't carry a party bias.

 

[glasgow-sheep]

Labour to 4th in holyrood

[Lurkst]

7 hours ago, lichtgilphead said:

I note that the corresponding figure for No isn't mentioned.

If the "Don't Know's" havent been stripped out, then there's likely to de a majority for Indy.

It's 51% No according to here...

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/09/first-post-boris-scottish-poll-puts-snp.html?m=1

 

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Lurkst said:

It's 51% No according to here...

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/09/first-post-boris-scottish-poll-puts-snp.html?m=1

 

Still disappointingly low.  How much shit do the Tories have to heap on Scotland before people want to get shot of them?

[Shandon Par]

I suppose there is the fact that people can be weary of politics. Since I was a nipper I've wanted an independent Scotland in Europe with our neighbours to the south as equals rather than our masters. Moving towards independence now seems a bigger leap of faith than last time around. The No vote tied us to this mess. Now I struggle to see what an independent Scotland would look like, with the bampot right wing nation to the south and us shut out of Europe thanks to them. I'm not saying I'd vote no but it would be voting yes with a heavy heart, knowing that it was the No vote that tied us to this Brexit pish and the inevitable recession/depression it will bring and that we've missed the boat in terms of being in a good starting place for Independence. Hopefully if another Indyref happens I can read some positive predictions about how we can extricate ourselves from the UK.  

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

I suppose there is the fact that people can be weary of politics. Since I was a nipper I've wanted an independent Scotland in Europe with our neighbours to the south as equals rather than our masters. Moving towards independence now seems a bigger leap of faith than last time around. The No vote tied us to this mess. Now I struggle to see what an independent Scotland would look like, with the bampot right wing nation to the south and us shut out of Europe thanks to them. I'm not saying I'd vote no but it would be voting yes with a heavy heart, knowing that it was the No vote that tied us to this Brexit pish and the inevitable recession/depression it will bring and that we've missed the boat in terms of being in a good starting place for Independence. Hopefully if another Indyref happens I can read some positive predictions about how we can extricate ourselves from the UK.  

As soon as the UK exits Scotland will be invited to join the EU as an independent country. Politicians from all over Europe have alluded to this but cannot simply all out say it as the UK is still a member state and that goes against the EU’s rules.
Brexit should be seen as a good reason for Scotland to leave the UK.

[DAFC.]

49% is absolutely shite, regardless if there is an official campaign or not. 

[ICTJohnboy]

BoJo has just mentioned how valuable the Scottish Whisky Industry is to the UK economy.

[renton]

1 minute ago, DAFC. said:

49% is absolutely shite, regardless if there is an official campaign or not. 

It really isn't. Particularly with regards the timing question: i.e. a referendum in the next 5 years. That's jumped from 52/40 against in the previous YG poll to 45/44 For. It implies a softening in attitudes, a willingness to hear the case. That's a big positive for me. 

[renton]

7 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

A fair amount of straw clutching on here by pro Indy supporters.

Clearly a massive number of Scots are perfectly happy to have the SNP continue to run Holyrood within the context of the United Kingdom.

Equally clearly, a massive number of Scits are living perfectly confortable lives and want to avoid anything which could potentially put that at risk.

At what point do people on here start to understand what is going on?

Until you do, there will continue to be shock and disappointment regarding polling results.

Except of course that there is a contradiction in terms between wanting to avoid risk to the status quo, and then handing a majority to pro independence parties, who can and will continue to push for that outcome. 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

11 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

At what point do people on here start to understand what is going on?

A slow but consistent trickle of don't knows and soft no's moving to yes ?

Because that's what's going on.

[DAFC.]

Obviously the gap in these polls has closed, but to still be behind is really not encouraging, after all that's happened the past couple years. What Yoons do have to realise, however, is that there is a desire for independence, a considerable one.  This "no-one wants it" line is getting tiresome.

[renton]

2 minutes ago, DAFC. said:

Obviously the gap in these polls has closed, but to still be behind is really not encouraging, after all that's happened the past couple years. What Yoons do have to realise, however, is that there is a desire for independence, a considerable one.  This "no-one wants it" line is getting tiresome.

We've had two polls on this lately - one where we were 52/48 ahead and one where we were 49/51 behind. There is no obvious previous poll to compare for the Ashcroft one and the YG shows no change from the previous poll, which in turn is rough and tough 3-4% points above where it was polling in 2017/2018. 

Basically the picture of those two polls is one of statistical tie. 

It'd be nice to think that first contact with Prime Minister Johnson would send the polls sky rocketing into the Yes 60%+ territory but at the same time most people compartmentalise issues to some degree, and Indyref 2 is still a hypothetical, rather than something occupying every column inch in the newspapers. Therefore it occupies less attention in people's minds. As I said, the positive polling for the SNP and the change in dynamics over when a referendum should happen (which has been replicated in both the YG and Ashcroft poll) is definitely encouraging. People who want to be asked the question are more open to argument, and more willing to embrace an answer apart from the status quo, even if their current thinking on that subject is not quite there.

[cyderspaceman]

2 minutes ago, DAFC. said:

Obviously the gap in these polls has closed, but to still be behind is really not encouraging, after all that's happened the past couple years. What Yoons do have to realise, however, is that there is a desire for independence, a considerable one.  This "no-one wants it" line is getting tiresome.

If the Unionists believe that getting rid of a 'controlling inluence' i.e. the EU,  is a 'good thing', (and the majority seem to) then they surely must be in favour of Scotland doing a similar thing and jettisoning the UK. 

I'm not saying it's a good or bad thing, just that it would be consistent with their attitude. 

[Ira Gaines]

I'd certainly say 49% makes a good starting point for an indy campaign so I'm not at all worried, but I won't say I'm not disappointed that, given everything that's gone on, that it's not higher.

[dorlomin]

Obviously its YouGov so many here will have to just ignore this polling as they are on record as saying they are not trustworty.

[Crùbag]

[Antlion]

7 hours ago, cyderspaceman said:

If the Unionists believe that getting rid of a 'controlling inluence' i.e. the EU,  is a 'good thing', (and the majority seem to) then they surely must be in favour of Scotland doing a similar thing and jettisoning the UK. 

I'm not saying it's a good or bad thing, just that it would be consistent with their attitude. 

If you listen to the likes of Iain Dale (whom I otherwise have a lot of time for) it’s only allowed to work one way. As a tub-thumping “take back control” Brexiteer, he is allowed to profess himself mystified that the Yes movement supports EU membership but rejects UK regionhood. It’s hypocrisy, he says: you can’t be in favour of one and not the other; there is no nuance! Yet apparently Yes supporters aren’t allowed to be similarly mystified about separatists like Boris championing sovereignty from the EU despite it being a far less oppressive unions than the UK, which they love. There is nuance then - the British union is good because it is good and the EU is bad because it is bad. Never mind that all the things Brexiteers vomit at the thought of - a single army, single flag, minority status - are already inflicted on Scotland by the union they love.

Simple answer: despite their borrowing the name “unionist” from centuries of Irish conflict, plenty of “muh sovereignty” UK nationalists don’t see the UK as a union of nations at all. They see the UK as their nation, their country, and the only place worthy of independence and sovereign statehood. London is their capital, and political unions are vile things when they involve Johnny Foreigner and anyone or any place non-British. Conversely, they’re jolly good things if they’re run from London.

[dorlomin]

 

Always worth repeating, polling for single issue parties tends to collapse as an election draws near so the Tories may pick up a chunk of Brexit Party votes in a real deal GE. 

 

That said, lol, and where are the conspiracy clowns with there "YouGov" theories?