Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[BucksburnDandy]

Latest Panelbase poll pretty much confirms the earlier poll for the Sunday Mail that showed support for Indy dropping back and now has No on 51% vs. Yes on 49%.
Holyrood voting still has SNP on course for a majority. However, numbers have fallen back a bit.
No doubt now, I think that the last two weeks will have made a dent in numbers, so would expect the Tories at least to try and keep that alive. Though, as interest dies down those headlines will pass and therefore that effect might be temporary.
I still wonder though if there is an impact from the Coronavirus. Partly due to the success of the British vaccine rollout, partly due to the sense of crisis having passed and being replaced with impatience.

Indeed. The momentum behind indy has died and the SNP tearing each other apart has not helped.

The party needs to get its house in order and focus on independence, winning soft voters back over.

Sturgeon may be best advised politically to speed up the easing of lockdown.

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, BucksburnDandy said:

Indeed. The momentum behind indy has died and the SNP tearing each other apart has not helped.

The party needs to get its house in order and focus on independence, winning soft voters back over.

Sturgeon may be best advised politically to speed up the easing of lockdown.

A small, insignificant minority attacking the party is not “tearing each other apart”.

I trust Sturgeon not to use the easing of the lockdown for political ends.  A responsible politician would not do that and we are very fortunate to have such a politician as FM.

 

[Colkitto]

Scotland on Sunday poll is clickbait. 

Producing an opinion poll that is not comparable with other polls kinda defeats the purpose. I imagine they will produce another poll next week showing the weighted poll that was previously used.

It's as if they were waiting on polling showing the Salmond/Sturgeon rift having a real impact but didn't get the figures they wanted, so just used another method to get the headline anyway 

[SANTAN]

1 minute ago, Pato said:

No, that was her lying about visiting the Balkans when footage of her exiting a plane perfectly safely and shaking hands with people emerged. The Benghazi thing was an attack on a US compound in Libya, while she was secretary of state under Obama. Republicans used it as a stick to beat Clinton relentlessly and to use the words of Salmond's advocate, 'put a smell on her'. The actual details of what Clinton had to defend are lost on me but it was on the news every day on Fox and was very effective along with the email stuff.

So between now and May there will be relentless news coverage of the Salmond inquiry, constant mentions of it at FMQs, every press conference Sturgeon does where she takes questions regardless of subject will be about the Salmond inquiry. Or they'll reanimate old ones, like when did she know Margaret Ferrier did blah, when was she aware Derek McKay was a creepy alcoholic etc etc.

The other thing I think we'll see is another move by Donalda MacKinnon to stop broadcasting Scottish Government briefings, particularly as the risk of them announcing relaxations to restrictions rises the closer we get to the election.

Ah right, cheers for the explanation. I can't disagree with anything you've said. I expect the same, you know what would do her the world of good, if Salmond could be smeared worse than her, someone from her camp should look into that.

[SANTAN]

5 minutes ago, Pato said:

Salmond's done for anyway, that poll found the inquiry had done twice as much damage to his (already tattered) reputation as Sturgeon. The best thing the SNP could do is just stop talking about him, but the discourse won't permit this.

Aye they'll have to batten down the hatches for now and then throw caution to the wind and reopen everything quickly if they're continuously sinking or hope for a major Westminster mess up to capitalise on, which isn't too unlikely. 

Edited March 7, 2021 by Stormzy

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

1 hour ago, Pato said:

We'll know if the SNP private polling is worse if Sturgeon starts saying things that are outside of her normal parameters. Just ahead of the last general election, when she said Kezia Dugdale had considered dropping opposition to having an independence referendum, this was intended to be the thing that would harm Labour's vote & return voters to the SNP. What happened instead was it was revealed that this had been said in confidence, and it reflected poorly on Sturgeon to have breached that trust for short term political gain. I'm sure she knew fine that was a risk but had been forced to take it and in the end the SNP lost seats to Labour. They won them back in 2019 as remain voters poured back into the SNP in a last ditch attempt to stop brexit.

The theme seems to be if Sturgeon is ever found to have, or is perceived to have, deviated from the straight and narrow, the SNP vote suffers. So any time she does stuff like this it's evidence of a dice roll in response to unfavourable polling. If you see it again you'll know they're in trouble.

That's an interesting take on things. Applying that logic to the Tories....with Johnson misleading parliament and lying to the queen, Patel bullying civil servants, and the Tories breaking international law....would see the Conservatives decimated in Scotland.

But they won't be, because the Ulster-lite tactics they employ mean that they'll always attract Unionist voters despite their complete lack of policies. The Tories especially, have long abandoned positive campaigning in Scotland and will once again pursue the any lie will do as long as some mud sticks on the SNP policy. 

What you should be saying is that it's no surprise that voters punish parties who have obvious internal dissent. It's happened in UK politics as long as I've been alive and both Labour and the Tories have suffered in the last 40 years. Hence it's hard to blame the utter desperation of the Tories and their media lapdogs to keep the Salmond/Sturgeon story on the front pages.

 

 

 

[Suspect Device]

12 hours ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Absolutely- always will be.

Second team is Rangers.

Just signed a Rangers player today.

 

If you had any credibility to start with it just plummeted with that post.

If you had........

 

 

Not sure if this one's been posted already. Another slim lead for No.

 

 

Edited March 7, 2021 by Suspect Device

[MONKMAN]

[Dawson Park Boy]

36 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

If you had any credibility to start with it just plummeted with that post.

If you had........

 

 

Not sure if this one's been posted already. Another slim lead for No.

 

 

Find it hard to understand that statement about credibility.

My first loyalty is to my local team where I am a supporter, shareholder and finance raiser, and have been since a boy.

However, there are quite a few other teams who I follow such as Rangers and Hearts (my dad took me to the 56 cup final to see Hearts beat Celtic).
Indeed I always follow Celtic and Rangers when they are playing in Europe as they represent Scotland.

In England, I have friends who live in Durham and I support Sunderland.

Your attempted point just seems so silly!

[paolo2143]

I would say it is hardly surprising that with the Tory media having launched a non stop propaganda attack on FM/SNP it would have some effect on polling.

As much as i hate negative campaigning it does work. that is why over next few weeks the SNP/YES movement should start an all out blitz of negative campaigning on Tory party/PM & Brexit. They literally have tons of ammunition and should use it. Of course they will have to use twitter, email, posters etc as the press will not help them the way they do with the Tories

Secondly we know that there is a small but vocal hardcore of YES voters who have been out to get FM long before the AS enquiry, they have been having a go at her since early 2017. The AS affair has just motivated them even more.

There is no point in trying to reason with them as it is like arguing with the town drunk, not only that but some like the Rev Campbell start foaming at mouth at mention of FM's name.

I actually think that most YES voters should starve their opinions of oxygen on social media, as the more you share it when replying, just gives it more air time and encourage the Unionists to keep stirring things.

These "Indy voters" actual think it would be better for FM to resign humiliatingly over next few weeks and for SNP to go into May's elections leaderless, than for her to stay. They say if she stays the attacks by media will continue.

Now fisrtly while i agree that attacks will continue just now,  if James Hamilton report exonerates the FM of any deliberate breaking of code then they will become much more toothless.

Secondly can you imagine the field day the Tory/Unionist media would have if FM resigns, they would spend next 2 months blasting it from pillar to post and it would be open season on destroying the SNP/YES movement. The attacks would be tenfold compared to just now and if anyone thinks there will be a Pro Indy majority after that they ae deluded.

The only way the FM should have to go is if James Hamilton finds that she knowingly & deliberately breached code, end of.

Also we know that Nicola Sturgeon is a formidable debater as we saw glimpses of the other day. She is light years ahead of Anas Sarwar, Douglas Ross & Willie Rennie. Once the election campaign starts and debates begin i strongly suspect that her ratings and SNP's will improve again, especially if James Hamilton has not found against her.

 

[Ira Gaines]

The negative campaigning was always going to come. For what it's worth, I have no real problem with it, and ultimately, it's up to the SNP to combat it. Something that, too often, they've simply not managed to do.

[Bert Raccoon]

On 05/03/2021 at 14:55, Gordon EF said:

SNP don't win in part of Lanarkshire where folk vandalise Subways and refuse to recognise the green light on traffic signals shocker.

See if you're going to come out with thick stereotypes, at least get it right 

[MONKMAN]

My boss also claims to be a Falkirk fan, when he’s evidently a ***, something I’ve mentioned on this site before. Refers to rangers as “we” when games are on, cheers goals etc but flat out denies being a fan when quizzed on it. I sincerely hope my boss hasn’t infiltrated this site or my games well and truly up.

[Dawson Park Boy]

3 minutes ago, MONKMAN said:

My boss also claims to be a Falkirk fan, when he’s evidently a ***, something I’ve mentioned on this site before. Refers to rangers as “we” when games are on, cheers goals etc but flat out denies being a fan when quizzed on it. I sincerely hope my boss hasn’t infiltrated this site or my games well and truly up.
 

No problem.

[Colkitto]

Independence poll for release on Monday. Hopefully weighted correctly 

[John Lambies Doos]

Independence poll for release on Monday. Hopefully weighted correctly 

Do you know who commissioned and which polling company?

[vikingTON]

7 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

A small, insignificant minority attacking the party is not “tearing each other apart”.

lol wut

Agree with them or not, a faction that includes Scotland's First Minister of seven years and party leader spanning three decades and a former Justice Minister alleging an internal party conspiracy is not "insignificant" by any definition of the term.  

[NotThePars]

17 hours ago, Pato said:

Have never, will never understand folk who think they can support two teams in the same country.

Anyhow, quite a gut punch to independence in that poll, what do folk think is at play? Is it just fair weather friends who liked the SNP when COVID seemed to be an exceptionally serious issue going back to their normal views now the threat is receding, or is it folk scunnered with restrictions, or a bit of both? Is it folk getting put off by the Salmond stuff? It's quite a rapid shift.

I know enough English (and Welsh) people who support their local team and a traditional top six Barclays team for it to feel like it's a thing they do down south. I guess it makes more sense given the size of the English leagues and the way the big dogs are slowly but surely turning themselves into franchises. Baffling when you've had Falkirk and Rangers in the same divisions in recent memory to support both sides. Does Dawson cheer when both teams score?

16 hours ago, Stormzy said:

I didn't follow US politics about that time, was that the whole pretend gunfire on the runway story? 

I do agree with what you say about it being a constant slow burner of a story and I must say as a Unionist I'm delighted by that because otherwise Nicola seems infallible, I'd happily take gutter press work to be her downfall but at the risk of sounding like a bigger dickhead than usual, I've always and for a long time had confidence in the Union and any potential referendums that may happen so I'm not surprised enough to be delighted. However from the offset on here I've stated that I believe the above to be the case and received a lot of stick for doing so, so I cant lie, it is on a very minor level satisfying to see polls that go a small way in showing that. 

It's also worth nothing that I'm not the one that brings polls into any debate so I'm not going crazy over this stuff, merely having a casual laugh, it's amusing to use this stuff against the people that take polls more seriously than me. 

If you played the Modern Warfare 2019 campaign then the mission at the embassy with the drones and directing the embassy staff via the cameras is directly based on Benghazi.

7 hours ago, Pato said:

No, that was her lying about visiting the Balkans when footage of her exiting a plane perfectly safely and shaking hands with people emerged. The Benghazi thing was an attack on a US compound in Libya, while she was secretary of state under Obama. Republicans used it as a stick to beat Clinton relentlessly and to use the words of Salmond's advocate, 'put a smell on her'. The actual details of what Clinton had to defend are lost on me but it was on the news every day on Fox and was very effective along with the email stuff in fatally damaging her brand in 2016.

So between now and May there will be relentless news coverage of the Salmond inquiry, constant mentions of it at FMQs, every press conference Sturgeon does where she takes questions regardless of subject will be about the Salmond inquiry. Or they'll reanimate old ones, like when did she know Margaret Ferrier did blah, when was she aware Derek McKay was a creepy alcoholic etc etc. Joanna Cherry, Kenny MacAskill, Neale Hanvey etc will all go on expressing opinions in newspapers and Wings which by the letter of the SNP rules should get them binned. The very same concern trolls who would be saying 'why rock the boat?' in times of relative economic stability will flick the switch on the back of their heads to 'we need to pull together at this challenging time' mode.

The other thing I think we'll see is another move by Donalda MacKinnon to stop broadcasting Scottish Government briefings, particularly as the risk of them announcing relaxations to restrictions rises the closer we get to the election.

 

Tweeted it every day til his death and kept going in the afterlife!

5 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said:

That's an interesting take on things. Applying that logic to the Tories....with Johnson misleading parliament and lying to the queen, Patel bullying civil servants, and the Tories breaking international law....would see the Conservatives decimated in Scotland.

But they won't be, because the Ulster-lite tactics they employ mean that they'll always attract Unionist voters despite their complete lack of policies. The Tories especially, have long abandoned positive campaigning in Scotland and will once again pursue the any lie will do as long as some mud sticks on the SNP policy. 

What you should be saying is that it's no surprise that voters punish parties who have obvious internal dissent. It's happened in UK politics as long as I've been alive and both Labour and the Tories have suffered in the last 40 years. Hence it's hard to blame the utter desperation of the Tories and their media lapdogs to keep the Salmond/Sturgeon story on the front pages.

 

 

 

Everyone knows the Tories are shysters and crooks. Loads of their voters are perfectly happy with it. It's not the same with the SNP and Sturgeon etc have consciously traded on their clean-cut image. 

There's probably an argument that could be made that plenty of people can and will accept the SNP being crooked if they deliver independence but the media landscape and self-perception of the party won't let it fly for a lot of people the same way it does with the Tories.

[Ned Nederlander]

5 hours ago, Suspect Device said:

 

If you had any credibility to start with it just plummeted with that post.

If you had........

 

 

Not sure if this one's been posted already. Another slim lead for No.

 

 

That one's now being reported as 50/50 apparently.

More polls out tomorrow I believe so maybe a legitimate 'No' poll then.

 

[GordonS]

Being against independence because you don't like Alex Salmond is like being in favour if independence because you don't like Queen Anne.