The Relegation Battle

[Fuctifano]

18 hours ago, JamesM82 said:

Those 538 percentages for teams to get relegated (Thistle 87%, County 63%, everyone else <1%) don't look right at all . The chances of Hamilton or Dundee getting relegated are obviously >1%. It's almost as if they've forgotten to include the post-split fixtures, as the only teams that could be in the bottom two places after 33 games are County and Thistle, but they are still close enough to Hamilton and Dundee to overtake them after 38.

Yeah I was struggling to equate them with the 38 game season simulation. Will see if they rejig them after the split. 

[Fifespud]

Fucking suck that up you cunters.

[Nightmare]

2 minutes ago, G_Man1985 said:

So according to the votes its 
Ross County to go down 
Dundee for the play offs

Exciting stuff

Tbf, loads of those votes were from the time when we were pretty bad, as opposed to utter fucking horseshit.

[Im_Rodger]

Bottom 6 prediction
1. St Johnstone
2. Motherwell
3. Hamilton Academical
4. Dundee (unfortunately)
————————————————
5. Ross County (q)
————————————————
6. Partick Thistle [emoji768]


-Play Offs-
Quarter Final
Morton 1-0 Dundee United
Dundee United 3-1 Morton
Dundee United win (3-2)

Semi Final
Dundee United 0-0 Livingston
Livingston 1-0 Dundee United AET
Livingston win (1-0)

Final
Livingston 0-2 Ross County
Ross County 3-0 Livingston
Ross County win (5-0)

Gulf between Premiership and Championship is very big atm imo.

Looking alright still.

[Fifespud]

Looking alright still.

Amazing from one so thick really. Well done [emoji106]

[Im_Rodger]

Amazing from one so thick really. Well done [emoji106]

That post.

[Dindeleux]

With my own team, barring us winning every game to maybe make a European spot, probably having very little to play for I plan to just sit back and watch the relegation drama unfold and enjoy not being in it for a change.

I don’t really mind what 2 of the bottom end Prem/top end Championship are in the league next year as almost every club from ourselves down to Falkirk could compete in a bigger top tier.

[Fuctifano]

FWIW, using the 538 method (which allocates a 50% chance of staying up to the team in 11th), the relegation % is:

Hamilton 6%

Dundee 14%

County 63%

Thistle 68%

	Safe%	Playoff%	Relegated %
Motherwell	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
St Johnstone	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
Hamilton	89.8%	8.6%	1.6%
Dundee	76.9%	18.5%	4.6%
Thistle	16.2%	32.4%	51.4%
Ross Co	17.2%	40.4%	42.4%

 

Yeah, St Johnstone ended up in the playoffs 1 time out of 1000, the results must have been fairly wild.

 

Points to be safe

 

30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39
8.60%	18.50%	33.40%	54.80%	74.50%	88.40%	96.90%	99.40%	99.90%	100.00%

 

[Steve McQueen]

7 hours ago, Fuctifano said:

FWIW, using the 538 method (which allocates a 50% chance of staying up to the team in 11th), the relegation % is:

Hamilton 6%

Dundee 14%

County 63%

Thistle 68%

	Safe%	Playoff%	Relegated %
Motherwell	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
St Johnstone	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
Hamilton	89.8%	8.6%	1.6%
Dundee	76.9%	18.5%	4.6%
Thistle	16.2%	32.4%	51.4%
Ross Co	17.2%	40.4%	42.4%

 

Yeah, St Johnstone ended up in the playoffs 1 time out of 1000, the results must have been fairly wild.

 

Points to be safe

 

30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39
8.60%	18.50%	33.40%	54.80%	74.50%	88.40%	96.90%	99.40%	99.90%	100.00%

 

Why the difference between Motherwell & Saints? we have the same points & the same 6 teams to play

[Shaggy Jenkins]

Goal difference gives Motherwell essentially an extra point, unless we beat them 9-0 on Saturday.

[Fuctifano]

2 hours ago, Steve McQueen said:

Why the difference between Motherwell & Saints? we have the same points & the same 6 teams to play

What I do is simulate results from now until the end of the season and add them to the current table. Up until Tuesday I had to take a punt Hearts would finish top 6 (which they did) and I've been putting the post split fixtures in as well although we don't know the order of the fixtures yet.

I fully expected St J to come out as 100% safe but obviously in one of the simulations they lost every game and either County or Thistle picked up 13+ points from the remaining 6. As I'm doing it on an excel sheet with a macro it only posts the final table then generates a new one, I don't get the individual results for each simulation. Harmless fun for a nerd like me.

[tree house tam]

1 hour ago, Fuctifano said:

Harmless fun for a nerd like me.

Meet Susan, nice lass...

[Jimbo Jagsfan]

The bottom 4 all have their last games against top 6 opponents, and there is a distinct possibility that none of them will pick up any more points pre-split.

With Hamilton and Dundee on 30 points and Thistle on 25, with a  worse goal difference, we need to get 6 points more than one of them to get out of this (at best) a play-off spot.

Not everyone will win all 5 games, and no-one will lose them all either.

So, Thistle need to get 9 or 10 points and hope that either Hamilton or Dundee do not get more than 3 or 4.

We have 3 home games after the split, so this is do-able.

However, I think I would rather go straight down than suffer the further humiliation of getting pumped by Livi in the play-offs.

[Steve McQueen]

9 hours ago, Shaggy Jenkins said:

Goal difference gives Motherwell essentially an extra point, unless we beat them 9-0 on Saturday.

4-0 to be level, 5 to be better.

[Radford]

If Dundee or Accies can win this weekend to put themselves on 33 points, that's a total (after 33 games) that's never seen a side finish bottom in the split era.

Small sample obviously but a fairly a consistent one, the four sides to finish 11th since play-offs were introduced have had 35, 36, 36 and 35 points. But there's never been two teams with less than 30 points after 33 games in the four seasons that they've been in place, so you'd assume you wouldn't need that many points this time round.

I think Accies/Dundee would need to do something as silly as only take a point or two from their final six games to end up in the bottom two.

[The Master]

We’ll soon be at that stage where a team is x points off 11th with x+n points to play for, but because all the teams below them can’t all win, they’re safe.

That’s always fun to work out. And even more fun listening to the Sportsound pundits try to get their heads round it.

[Spikethedee]

14 hours ago, Radford said:

If Dundee or Accies can win this weekend to put themselves on 33 points, that's a total (after 33 games) that's never seen a side finish bottom in the split era.

Small sample obviously but a fairly a consistent one, the four sides to finish 11th since play-offs were introduced have had 35, 36, 36 and 35 points. But there's never been two teams with less than 30 points after 33 games in the four seasons that they've been in place, so you'd assume you wouldn't need that many points this time round.

I think Accies/Dundee would need to do something as silly as only take a point or two from their final six games to end up in the bottom two.

Challenge accepted...

[Shotts56]

I think Accies/Dundee would need to do something as silly as only take a point or two from their final six games to end up in the bottom two.

TBF, Accies gave it their best shot last season, losing our first four post-split games. My arse wasn’t twitching at all going into the last game of the season last year, honest.

[Im_Rodger]

I beleive all clubs should unite in saying goodbye to our hipster/liberal friends Partick.

Goodbye. 

Team not good enough to compete with the big bois of Scottish football. 

 

[Fifespud]

It’s a nail biter but on the plus side I’d rather be in our position than either Thistle, County or Hamilton’s.