The Relegation Battle

[RossDee01]

3 minutes ago, Armand 2 said:

A lot of folk seem happy to ignore the fact that Archie's record in crucial games is actually very good.

There's been a fair bit of hysteria after the weekend which whilst understandable to an extent after the abject first half showing, has been  exaggerated beyond belief as usual with us now being no match for Livingston or Morton, apparently.

St Mirren have steamrolled the Championship by virtue of finding a consistency that most others have utterly failed to do at any point. Without taking anything away from St Mirren, it is surely one of the poorest Championships in recent history; most teams have had +9 points at least thanks to a pathetic Brechin. 

If - and despite what folk would have you believe, that is still a relatively uncertain 'if' - we finish in the play-off spot, I would be very confident of beating whoever the Championship team would be; in fact, I'd back the Premiership team whoever it was.

You get the same comments from fans of Championship clubs at this point in the season every year. The gulf between the two divisions is huge and over 2 legs the Premiership side will have no problem.

[tree house tam]

35 minutes ago, RossDee01 said:

You get the same comments from fans of Championship clubs at this point in the season every year. The gulf between the two divisions is huge and over 2 legs the Premiership side will have no problem.

This isn't going to come back and haunt you Ross, nope, not one bit

 

[Fifespud]

You certainly tore us a sore one in that game what you don't seem to grasp is the fact we had a good few key players out. We are a completely different team from that game. It has to be remembered last season we were bottom of the championship for a long spell.  To date we are 8 points better off than Hibs at the same time last year an incredible achievement. Regarding the play off spot I see Livingston making the final who will be a very hard nut to crack would not be surprised if they made the premiership. 

I think us and Thistle should start ‘tapping up’ Hopkin now as part of a destabilisation process.

I’ve no idea what Livi are like but I wouldn’t back Dundee to win against anyone. We have a lot of mediocre players who are low on confidence.

[vikingTON]

There's certainly no team to be feared playing in the current Championship - that includes the spoon-burners, whose more expansive play than the rest of the division was brutally exposed by top flight clubs in the cup ties this season. There's no convincing evidence that the 11th placed side could 'rack up double figures' though - Livingston and ourselves (if we make them) are if nothing else defensively well-organised sides. The major question mark rests with a lack of genuine attacking quality. There's no reason why either side couldn't absolutely shitfest at least one leg and nick a few goals from set-pieces or a counter attack though.

Dundee United are an absolute rabble right now and would lose convincingly. 

[Nizzy]

10 hours ago, Millions said:

Don't underestimate how shite the bottom top teams are. County and Partick are horrendously bad

In comparison to...?

[RossDee01]

This isn't going to come back and haunt you Ross, nope, not one bit
 

If we go down through the playoffs then I will have absolutely no complaints. Losing to the championship team would mean relegation is more than deserved.

[Demented Zebra]

33 minutes ago, virginton said:

There's certainly no team to be feared playing in the current Championship - that includes the spoon-burners, whose more expansive play than the rest of the division was brutally exposed by top flight clubs in the cup ties this season. There's no convincing evidence that the 11th placed side could 'rack up double figures' though - Livingston and ourselves (if we make them) are if nothing else defensively well-organised sides. The major question mark rests with a lack of genuine attacking quality. There's no reason why either side couldn't absolutely shitfest at least one leg and nick a few goals from set-pieces or a counter attack though.

Dundee United are an absolute rabble right now and would lose convincingly. 

Forgetting your bitter rivalry which I find hard to grasp maybe because historically your neighbours have been more successful. Would love Morton to come up with us good for both clubs gate's unfortunately I see Livingston as the most likely Hpokin has built a good team there. 

 

 

[Ludo*1]

St Johnstone look to have secured safety. Between County, Partick Thistle, Dundee and Hamilton now. If County lose to Partick Thistle on Tuesday, I'd guess that barring an absolute disastrous spate of form for one of the other three and County becoming the form team in the country, then they'd be as good as down.

Big week coming up.

Dundee have Celtic then Rangers away in the next week so my preference would be a draw in the aforementioned County game and hope that Hamilton don't pick anything up either.

[tree house tam]

C'mon Hamilton and County.

[Fuctifano]

Done my simulation thing again this year, at the moment it has Saints and Motherwell totally safe, and Hamilton safe 93% of the time. 

Below is the % of times you could expect to be safe with each points total.

30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40
6.70%	17.20%	32.50%	53.40%	72.70%	84.20%	93.80%	98.00%	99.20%	99.90%	99.90%

 

edit: 538 have a more optimistic view if you're a Dundee fan.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Done my simulation thing again this year, at the moment it has Saints and Motherwell totally safe, and Hamilton safe 93% of the time. 
Below is the % of times you could expect to be safe with each points total.

30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40
6.70%	17.20%	32.50%	53.40%	72.70%	84.20%	93.80%	98.00%	99.20%	99.90%	99.90%

 
edit: 538 have a more optimistic view if you're a Dundee fan.
 

Basically we need two wins to be safe - same scenario as last season.

[RandomGuy.]

Could be just five points separating the bottom four come the split, exciting stuff which will be ignored to focus on who wins the second place trophy.

[DublinMagyar]

What battle?

[JamesM82]

On 4/2/2018 at 16:59, Fuctifano said:

Done my simulation thing again this year, at the moment it has Saints and Motherwell totally safe, and Hamilton safe 93% of the time. 

Below is the % of times you could expect to be safe with each points total.

30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40
6.70%	17.20%	32.50%	53.40%	72.70%	84.20%	93.80%	98.00%	99.20%	99.90%	99.90%

 

edit: 538 have a more optimistic view if you're a Dundee fan.

 

Those 538 percentages for teams to get relegated (Thistle 87%, County 63%, everyone else <1%) don't look right at all . The chances of Hamilton or Dundee getting relegated are obviously >1%. It's almost as if they've forgotten to include the post-split fixtures, as the only teams that could be in the bottom two places after 33 games are County and Thistle, but they are still close enough to Hamilton and Dundee to overtake them after 38.

[Dindeleux]

County will win on the 3rd and we’ll go bottom.
The likes of Livi or Morton would beat us anyway.

We deserve to go down. We’re utterly stinking.

On target mate.

[Comrie]

Only team I think we can realistically catch is Dundee, but that's pretty unlikely. I'd fancy us to reasonably comfortably beat any second tier side in the play off spots over two legs.

[jamamafegan]

I don’t particularly want Dundee to go down but it won’t stop me laughing if they do.

[tree house tam]

24 minutes ago, G_Man1985 said:

On 02/04/2018 at 16:51, tree house tam said:

C'mon Hamilton and County.

You don't need to be nasty about all this.

I'm not being nasty G_Man, just think it'd be very funny.

If you ever missed top flight action you could come along to watch the mighty Saints with us.

 

After a very good scrub, naturally. 

[jagfox]

Yay! 5 more games after Saturday...

[Gianfranco]

If that’s right then we’d have an extra home game as we’ve already played 17 at Fir Park.