Relegation Royal Rumble

[Fuctifano]

Dunfermline went up to 84% safe even if they lose all 6 games. 42 points wasn't enough to be safe 5 times out of 1000. 

Edit - to the naked eye test the top 4 numbers seem a bit high on ICT even given their goal difference advantage over Dunfermline, it has Inverness getting top 4 87% of the time and Dunfermline 13%.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Fuctifano

[19QOS19]

Why haven't the new projections been posted yet? [emoji20] 19QOS19 needs to know if there's a 2% chance the Pars can be relegated.

You know it. It's all I'm worried about.

[Poet of the Macabre]

Wow, still a 16% chance of getting relegated if we lose all six games. I still need to tick off Peterhead and Edinburgh City, so not a total disaster.

[D'Jaffo]

Wow, still a 16% chance of getting relegated if we lose all six games. I still need to tick off Peterhead and Edinburgh City, so not a total disaster.

Give the seaside league my best. Except Stinlar. f**k them.

[HoBNob]

16 minutes ago, D'Jaffo said:

Give the seaside league my best. Except Stinlar. f**k them.

What's up with Stranraer? Who doesn't like them? Cuddly. 

21 minutes ago, Poet of the Macabre said:

Wow, still a 16% chance of getting relegated if we lose all six games. I still need to tick off Peterhead and Edinburgh City, so not a total disaster.

Fucking game over man. 

[Dink]

Before Saturday, Alloa had lost 7 of their last 8 games, so it would hardly be some incredible fall from grace.

So, even in our worst run of the season (conveniently ignoring the wins at either end) we were averaging better than 2 points from a possible 18. To be honest I think that we're still likely to be relegated but I'm pretty confident that we'll get at least one more win before the end of the season.

[19QOS19]

So, even in our worst run of the season (conveniently ignoring the wins at either end) we were averaging better than 2 points from a possible 18. To be honest I think that we're still likely to be relegated but I'm pretty confident that we'll get at least one more win before the end of the season.

Aye, April 13th.

[UpInTheAyr]

Remember at the beginning of this thread everyone was asking OP why Queen's were included in the poll. Needless to say Brian has had the last laugh, tremendous foresight on his part imho.

[Dunning1874]

12 minutes ago, UpInTheAyr said:

Remember at the beginning of this thread everyone was asking OP why Queen's were included in the poll. Needless to say Brian has had the last laugh, tremendous foresight on his part imho.

The discussion about Queen of the South being a model for Championship clubs to follow has aged particularly well.

[The Ghost of B A R P]

10 hours ago, madton said:

Did a quick results prediction for the remaining games and i was left with;

Queens- 41

Thistle- 41

Morton- 40

Falkirk- 39

Alloa- 31

Whilst I would take that, it would be bloody nerve racking on the final day if it's this close.

Alloa will get more than 31... don't know how many more, but more...

They're also highly likely to have the  biggest say in how it all comes out, with their next four games being against the four teams above them. Can't see them losing all four of those; and can't see them winning none.

You have to say also that our game at Grangemouth on the 20th has the look of a Gods of Fitba classic...

[Marshmallo]

19QOS19's face turn this week has been admirable. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

[Poet of the Macabre]

17 hours ago, Dink said:

20 hours ago, Poet of the Macabre said:

Before Saturday, Alloa had lost 7 of their last 8 games, so it would hardly be some incredible fall from grace.

So, even in our worst run of the season (conveniently ignoring the wins at either end) we were averaging better than 2 points from a possible 18. To be honest I think that we're still likely to be relegated but I'm pretty confident that we'll get at least one more win before the end of the season.

I wasn't "conveniently ignoring" anything, just pointing out that pretty much no one would be shocked if Alloa didn't pick up many more points.

[Poet of the Macabre]

19 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

19QOS19's face turn this week has been admirable. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Glad to see you're still here pal! It's been so long since you got upset and gave me a red dot I'd assumed you'd quit P&B.

Edited April 4, 2019 by Poet of the Macabre

[Ranaldo Bairn]

Using the WW fella's patter too. Urgh. 

[Rab B Nesbit]

2 hours ago, Ranaldo Bairn said:

Using the WW fella's patter too. Urgh. 

The mallow ? 

[madton]

On 03/04/2019 at 15:00, Colkitto said:

You only see us picking up 5 points from our next 6 games? 

You seem surprised by that?? Many do you think?

We have 1 win in ten, have scored just 5 goals in those ten games, 

Draw at queens, beat Alloa and draw with Inverness for me, can see us losing the rest.

[vikingTON]

26 minutes ago, madton said:

You seem surprised by that?? Many do you think?

We have 1 win in ten, have scored just 5 goals in those ten games, 

Draw at queens, beat Alloa and draw with Inverness for me, can see us losing the rest.

Did you see us drawing at Ayr this midweek or beating Ross County twice earlier in the campaign? Logic simply doesn't apply to this team, it looks the exact same playing against Alloa as it does against Dundee United. None of the remaining games can be safely called but the necessary five points or so will come from somewhere among them. 

[Colkitto]

14 hours ago, madton said:

You seem surprised by that?? Many do you think?

We have 1 win in ten, have scored just 5 goals in those ten games, 

Draw at queens, beat Alloa and draw with Inverness for me, can see us losing the rest.

Our last game of the season is at Cappielow against Dun Utd. They will either have won the league or will be heading into the playoff's. I can't see them fielding a strong team against us in that game so a potential of all 3 points.

Alloa at home is a winnable game too.

Possibility of picking something up at Dunfermline as they could be home and dry and nothing to play for by the time we play them.

Queens have been on a terrible run, so potential there too.

Falkirk game will look after itself and should still hold a bit of niggle.

Only one I'm not confident about getting anything from is the ICT game 

[madton]

31 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Our last game of the season is at Cappielow against Dun Utd. They will either have won the league or will be heading into the playoff's. I can't see them fielding a strong team against us in that game so a potential of all 3 points.

Alloa at home is a winnable game too.

Possibility of picking something up at Dunfermline as they could be home and dry and nothing to play for by the time we play them.

Queens have been on a terrible run, so potential there too.

Falkirk game will look after itself and should still hold a bit of niggle.

Only one I'm not confident about getting anything from is the ICT game 

Hope you are closer with your prediction than me then! Find it hard to believe we will  pick up 9-10 points but hope I'm wrong.

BTW Dundee United could also be needing a win to win the league or guarantee finishing 2nd so not a given they will be fielding a weakened team at all.

On the ICT game, that was one of the games i actually think we can pick up at least a point as they have their Hampden semi final on the Sat so difficult to pick yourself up after a game like that a few days later.

Edited April 5, 2019 by madton

[Colkitto]

1 hour ago, madton said:

Hope you are closer with your prediction than me then! Find it hard to believe we will  pick up 9-10 points but hope I'm wrong.

BTW Dundee United could also be needing a win to win the league or guarantee finishing 2nd so not a given they will be fielding a weakened team at all.

On the ICT game, that was one of the games i actually think we can pick up at least a point as they have their Hampden semi final on the Sat so difficult to pick yourself up after a game like that a few days later.

All if's and but's mate. Who knows what will happen - fingers x'd