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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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6 minutes ago, pozbaird said:

No, what I’m implying is that wherever Italy, China, or South Africa were at any point in this, if the UK, Iceland, Canada or anyone, are two to three weeks behind, the amount of variables doesn’t necessarily mean we, or anyone else involved, will be seeing Italian levels of deaths. I definitely heard more than a few comments on TV absolutely along the lines of ‘it’s going to be that bad’. Now, it might be, let’s hope not. I just don’t think it’s certain. 

Look at the figures. We are basically one for one each day past the nth death. 

It's not scaremongering or being pessimistic, it's what the figures are saying will happen. We've still got about 5 days before the bell ends from lats weekend doon the Strathy start hitting the icus too. 

Problem is it takes about a week to be hit by symptoms, so anything we do now won't affect the numbers until 10-14ish days from now. We've already made the f**k ups that take us to two weeks from now basically. 

Edited by madwullie
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Just now, welshbairn said:

Our best chance of avoiding the worst outcome is assuming it. As soon as people start saying "Load of fuss about nothing" we're fucked.

Absolutely take on board what you say here. I think it would be wrong to dismiss it as ‘ach, just a bit of flu FFS’ or suchlike. My own opinion though is that some of the reports, in regard to us hurtling towards where Italy are, could have done with a caveat at the end.

Like all of this though, time and hindsight will reveal all. Fingers x we simply do not follow Italian levels of deaths attributed to Corona 19.

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1 hour ago, ayrmad said:

It's hard to make comparisons, we're not exactly testing loads of folk, I just follow the death numbers at the moment, that gives me an idea where we are. 

At the risk of attracting ridicule, and using just today’s figures (which is undoubtedly not good practice).

If the death rate grows at the rate from yesterday to today then at the end of the three week ‘lockdown’ there will be approximately 17,600 more deaths in Scotland.

I have no idea how quickly the ‘lockdown’ will impact upon the infection/death rate but even if it kicks in after a fortnight and reduces the growth rate by 50%, this would reduce the 17,600 figure to about 6,300.  That is significant.

Edited by Granny Danger
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3 hours ago, Jack Burton said:
3 hours ago, G_Man1985 said:
Yup so this is something we spoke about. We have people on the front door who will speak to customers and advise etc.
So some scenarios like you said are unavoidable.
Next step is how many people in store at a time

Asda in Cumbernauld are only letting so many in at a time, was a queue to get in. Only letting one in when another shopper had left.

When I were a lad, that was the drill in Byres Road pubs. Wan oot , wan in.   One client has left the premises, sir. You may enter. Enjoy your evening.

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1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

At the risk of attracting ridicule, and using just today’s figures (which is undoubtedly not good practice).

If the death rate grows at the rate from yesterday to today then at the end of the three week ‘lockdown’ there will be approximately 17,600 more deaths in Scotland.

I have no idea how quickly the ‘lockdown’ will impact upon the infection/death rate but even if it kicks in after a fortnight and reduces the rate by 50%, this would reduce the 17,600 figure to about 6,300.  That is significant.

You can't go day by day, even the days we've had isn't very long, we've more deaths at this point barring Spain, I've not saw us undertaking measures that will halt that for weeks. 

It's probably better smoothing the curves over a few days as well but it is actual folk not numbers. 

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4 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

At the risk of attracting ridicule, and using just today’s figures (which is undoubtedly not good practice).

If the death rate grows at the rate from yesterday to today then at the end of the three week ‘lockdown’ there will be approximately 17,600 more deaths in Scotland.

I have no idea how quickly the ‘lockdown’ will impact upon the infection/death rate but even if it kicks in after a fortnight and reduces the rate by 50%, this would reduce the 17,600 figure to about 6,300.  That is significant.

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10 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Look at the figures. We are basically one for one each day past the nth death. 

It's not scaremongering or being pessimistic, it's what the figures are saying will happen. We've still got about 5 days before the bell ends from lats weekend doon the Strathy start hitting the icus too. 

Problem is it takes about a week to be hit by symptoms, so anything we do now won't affect the numbers until 10-14ish days from now. We've already made the f**k ups that take us to two weeks from now basically. 

Nothing for it but for all of us to wait and see. I’m sure we can all agree on one thing - let’s hope we do not absolutely follow Italy’s experience,

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