Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ICTChris]

People project what they want onto the pandemic. There is no indication that “staunchness” or hating the SNP is related to the spread.

[Hedgecutter]

3 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Not correct. Even if you “have your own place” you can still join a different household temporarily, as long as it’s “reasonable” e.g. measured in a period of several weeks, not a couple of days.

There are many, many young people who moved home to be with their parents over the lockdown. And that would be allowed in this case as well, even if they’re technically still paying rent on the flat they share with their mates.

 

 

Fair enough, although he'll still need to commit to a household for 'several weeks' knowing that he won't be able to enter the house of whichever parent gets turned down during that time. 

[Gaz]

35 minutes ago, John MacLean said:

Is there a correlation between a certain level of staunchness in Glasgow and its surrounds and an unwillingness to follow anything "that Sturgeon" says and non-compliance re Covid regulations? 

I've been saying this for a while.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

1 hour ago, Have some faith in Magic said:

My other half is going to see her elderly mum this weekend. 

Her mum lives by herself therefore she can still do that as it's a bubble. 

My interpretation anyway. 

 

Yes, further if you are a carer for someone you can visit them. 

[harry94]

7 minutes ago, John MacLean said:

We clearly have a very big problem. 

Some of these new restrictions have been in place in the, among others, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde area for several weeks now. 

Today's figures show 181 new cases in the NHSGG&C area of which 132 are in the Glasgow City Local Authority area. 

The implementation of these restrictions would appear to have next to no positive impact in these areas. 

Which means either they don't work or they rely on a high level of compliance that we are simply not getting. 

Is there a correlation between a certain level of staunchness in Glasgow and its surrounds and an unwillingness to follow anything "that Sturgeon" says and non-compliance re Covid regulations? 

Are other countries as apparently reluctant to follow government rules?

Has the UK really had enough of experts as Gove suggested to the degree that during a global pandemic they are ignored?

My observations are that at least to a certain extent restrictions are being interpreted in a way that suits an individual. The household rule, for example, is seen as meaning house parties and not having someone over for a gab and a cup of tea when it clearly means anyone steeping over your threshold irrespective of whether they come with a bag of eccies and a cargo or a bit of battenberg and green tea. 

If we are relying on people seeing beyond the narrow confines of their own existence then I'm sorry we're gubbed. 

It's very difficult determine the effectiveness of the new restrictions from the headline figure of cases. You need to look at the channels that the virus has spread through and trace the clusters individually to determine the effectiveness of restrictions.

For what it's worth though, if you take increase % on a rolling 7 day basis (to try and move away from issues with test backlogs etc), the rate of growth increase (not the growth increase itself) has actually been far steadier since the 6th September. Why that is though is hard to say.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

It's very difficult determine the effectiveness of the new restrictions from the headline figure of cases. You need to look at the channels that the virus has spread through and trace the clusters individually to determine the effectiveness of restrictions.
For what it's worth though, if you take increase % on a rolling 7 day basis (to try and move away from issues with test backlogs etc), the rate of growth increase (not the growth increase itself) has actually been far steadier since the 6th September. Why that is though is hard to say.

You’re highly unlikely to get shopped or caught having a cup of tea and a gab than you are having the music up full blast and 30 steamin c***s in your house. Theres no interpretation it’s just a case of “ och i know we’re no supposed to but let’s have a quick cuppa no one will know “.
Also bubbles are impossible to police

[Andy Dufresne]

That's the wee one had her test,it was awful for her.

[Savage Henry]

14 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

People project what they want onto the pandemic. There is no indication that “staunchness” or hating the SNP is related to the spread.

Right.  But I think there’s probably a correlation between where people hold the government of whatever hue in contempt, and the spread.  
 

That being said, Sturgeon is clearly a better PR face than Boris, and Scotland has done no better than the UK with essentially the same advice and measures.  

[pandarilla]

Right.  But I think there’s probably a correlation between where people hold the government of whatever hue in contempt, and the spread.  
 
That being said, Sturgeon is clearly a better PR face than Boris, and Scotland has done no better than the UK with essentially the same advice and measures.  

We've had it considerably tighter, have we not?

That appears to have been sacrifice in return for very little. Sturgeon will surely come under pressure for this.

And yet we're still trying to follow the samw route, with no indoor visits.

[Savage Henry]

2 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

We've had it considerably tighter, have we not?

That appears to have been sacrifice in return for very little. Sturgeon will surely come under pressure for this.

And yet we're still trying to follow the samw route, with no indoor visits.
 

I can’t really argue with that, except to say the actual policy would have been the same whichever party was in charge.  In the end, medical advice is medical advice.  If people can’t follow it, so be it.   I can only assume the numbers of conspiracy theorists are larger than we would like to think. 

[Michael W]

11 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

I suspect in England, contempt for the government correlates with following the rules quite carefully.

The worst affected areas are predominately Labour seats. 

[Hedgecutter]

14 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

But I think there’s probably a correlation between where people hold the government of whatever hue in contempt, and the spread.  

There will inevitably be people who'll continue to say "Sturgeon is only being different to England simply for indy-related political reasons" and will consider the differences between the Scottish and English rules to be trivial.  As such, they'll just ignore them when they become an inconvenience, which will contribute to any significant spread (but not necessarily be the driving force behind one).

[Have some faith in Magic]

12 minutes ago, Michael W said:

The worst affected areas are predominately Labour seats. 

Bit of a brexity correlation as well. 

[welshbairn]

32 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

We've had it considerably tighter, have we not?

That appears to have been sacrifice in return for very little. Sturgeon will surely come under pressure for this.

And yet we're still trying to follow the samw route, with no indoor visits.
 

I doubt if many people have noticed much difference unless they religiously examine the minutiae of the rules about whether you can visit your auntie or not.

As to whether it was worthwhile, we seem to have escaped the worst of it in the Highlands anyway.

[Hedgecutter]

6 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Is there an up to date map of cases UK wide?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/20/coronavirus-uk-map-confirmed-covid-cases-and-deaths-today

 

values based on per 100k

[Hedgecutter]

Bit more concerning however is when you look at the rate of change (rather than # per 100k)...

 

 

 

_{Data from Public Health England; NI Dept of Health; Public Health Scotland, for the seven days to 19 September 2020, compared with the seven days to 12 September 2020. Note: Scottish historic data only available by health board}

 

_{... and people wonder why Scottish measures need to be harder hitting.}

Edited September 22, 2020 by Hedgecutter

[welshbairn]

It's a bit deceptive when you're starting from a rate of close to zero.

[Ingo ohne Flamingo]

19 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Is there an up to date map of cases UK wide?

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/ - Scotland

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/ - UK

This website is perfect for seeing all the local area data.

[harry94]

49 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

I can’t really argue with that, except to say the actual policy would have been the same whichever party was in charge.  In the end, medical advice is medical advice.  If people can’t follow it, so be it.   I can only assume the numbers of conspiracy theorists are larger than we would like to think. 

That's where the PM/FM comes in. Boris did change his tone but early on, it was destructive with his havering on about shaking hands with people and giving multiple speeches where he made references to how we shouldn't overestimate the virus, this in addition to the practices in his own gov which nearly took his own life and exposed other important individuals.

Like it or not, Sturgeon has polled through this pandemic as having legitimacy in how she's presented herself and being trusted in Scotland across the political spectrum whilst similar polls showed the opposite was true for Boris. You can't quantify the impact on the spread messaging has and comparisons between per capita case rates are always a bit iffy when questioned (e.g. testing rates and demographics need to be weighted) but trust in advice will undoubtedly have a positive impact and that's where the two governments have performed differently.

In addition, it's not strictly true that policy would be the same with differing governments. Resources coming from the treasury impacts the sort of public health response measure you can reasonably maintain. Our spending approach has been nowhere near as aggressive as people seem to believe when you take a proper look at how other developed countries have approached things.

Edited September 22, 2020 by harry94

[Michael W]

15 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

It's a bit deceptive when you're starting from a rate of close to zero.

You would look at that map. And wonder what all the fuss was about in Glasgow and Lanarkshire. 

Edit: and indeed the areas in England under restriction. 

Edited September 22, 2020 by Michael W