GordonS Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 50 minutes ago, Left Back said: Chris Whitty stated today around 8000 in a good year and 20000 in a bad year die of flu. he then went on to say something along the lines of Covid will turn out to be similar and acceptable risk (i.e. collateral damage) will be arrived at. While I think it’s truthful and needs saying his glib manner and the half smile he has while talking about this stuff makes me think he’s a c**t. I didn't hear his comments but I read the reports of it, and it doesn't say anything like that. Can you quote that bit? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, GordonS said: I didn't hear his comments but I read the reports of it, and it doesn't say anything like that. Can you quote that bit? I don’t have the words verbatim and this doesn’t quote everything. But he did talk about acceptable risk and people dying being a thing that happens. I don’t disagree with what he said, it’s the way he says is. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-chris-whitty-winter-vaccine-b1782810.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 (edited) 35 minutes ago, GordonS said: Which bit of observed reality do you object to? I don't know what the 80% is to which you refer, but the figure I gave is from ONS as reported here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55411323 When I said those who scoffed and were wrong are still scoffing... does that includes you? The 80% was in reference to the fact that 600k people die every year in the UK, and 500k on top of that would represent an increase of (just over) 80%. Nonsense. The 500k figure was calculated by a professor with a track record of wild overestimates, using dated, sloppy code, which produced a result which couldn't be replicated by anyone else. He also made a number of assumptions for the likes of CFR and population susceptibility that we now know to be false. If you want to give him the benefit of the doubt and (arguably correctly) say he could not have known this at the time then that's fine, but the model used was so flawed that you cannot use his 500,000 figure as a yardstick for measuring the effectiveness of the measures we took. Did they reduce the pressure on the NHS during the Spring, Summer and Autumn? Perhaps. Did they save any lives? I wouldn't be surprised if, when all is said and done, it's found that while they may have helped delay a large number of deaths by a few months, they didn't actually save (m)any. The link you provides places excess deaths for the year at around 13.3% if we assume all of the covid deaths within 28 days of a positive result would not have otherwise occured (unlikely) then excess under that measure were around 11% Given the huge majority of these deaths were in elderly people, the vaccine will prevent most of those happening again, massively reducing that number in 2021 and beyond. What we cannot do going forward is shovel the same amount of resources again at maybe preventing ~10,000 deaths following the rollout of the vaccine (1.6% excess) because, as Whitty says, people die. That, to me, is an acceptable level of risk for a country of 66m, and it is important that he has used those words, as it indicates that he does not advocate a futile "zero covid" approach. Edited January 6, 2021 by Todd_is_God -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherrif John Bunnell Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The Tories have decided they can't be arsed with vaccines on Sundays. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: The 80% was in reference to the fact that 600k people die every year in the UK, and 500k on top of that would represent an increase of (just over) 80%. Nonsense. The 500k figure was calculated by a professor with a track record of wild overestimates, using dated, sloppy code, which produced a result which couldn't be replicated by anyone else. He also made a number of assumptions for the likes of CFR and population susceptibility that we now know to be false. If you want to give him the benefit of the doubt and (arguably correctly) say he could not have known this at the time then that's fine, but the model used was so flawed that you cannot use his 500,000 figure as a yardstick for measuring the effectiveness of the measures we took. Did they reduce the pressure on the NHS during the Spring, Summer and Autumn? Perhaps. Did they save any lives? I wouldn't be surprised if, when all is said and done, it's found that while they may have helped delay a large number of deaths by a few months, they didn't actually save (m)any. The link you provides places excess deaths for the year at around 13.3% if we assume all of the covid deaths within 28 days of a positive result would not have otherwise occured (unlikely) then excess deaths due to covid were around 11% Given the huge majority of these deaths were in elderly people, the vaccine will prevent most of those happening again. What we cannot do going forward is shovel the same amount of resources again at maybe preventing ~10,000 deaths following the rollout of the vaccine (1.6% excess) because, as Whitty says, people die. That, to me, is an acceptable level of risk for a country of 66m, and it is important that he has used those words, as it indicates that he does not advocate a futile "zero covid" approach. Whitty also did say that zero Covid wasn’t going to happen. I wish there was a transcript of what he said today. It seemed to be the most truthful “scientific’ guidance we’ve had so far. Vallance said pretty much hee-haw. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Left Back said: Whitty also did say that zero Covid wasn’t going to happen. I wish there was a transcript of what he said today. It seemed to be the most truthful “scientific’ guidance we’ve had so far. Vallance said pretty much hee-haw. He said some pretty truth stuff back in March before the Government changed approach. It's as if now the vaccines are here and there will be an end point reasonably soon, he is free again to talk honestly -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: He said some pretty truth stuff back in March before the Government changed approach. It's as if now the vaccines are here and there will be an end point reasonably soon, he is free again to talk honestly Won’t fully break rank before his knighthood is announced. Then Sir Chris’ memoirs to supplement his retirement will be a best-seller 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, Left Back said: Won’t fully break rank before his knighthood is announced. Then Sir Chris’ memoirs to supplement his retirement will be a best-seller Haha. Either that or his comments at the briefings don't really reflect his advice behind closed doors, and his appearances are little more than to deliver the message the government want the public to hear and buy in to, from someone that isn't BJ or MH. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Nothing like a bit of overreaction over wearing a mask and sitting at home for a weeks - 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RH33 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I mid read that as this is a tranny and thought I’d missed Kier becoming Kim. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philpy Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 7 hours ago, virginton said: Yep, it's definitely those pesky young people who are responsible for a person's suicide here. What an absolute walloper. Takes one to know one. At which point did I suggest that?? The point I'm trying to make is there are young people going out to house parties every weekend and just not giving a f**k. This poor lad has stuck by the rules and made sacrifices to try and make a future for himself. It's just very sad that depression and loneliness took its toll. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Having a stroke? Wait 10 hours for an ambulance. Horrible. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-ambulance-london-delays-deaths-b1782473.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 That terrifies me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlipperyP Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2046367/qualified-hope 2 years to end the epidemic in Thailand & 70% vaccination for the population until tourist are full allowed to return. Won't be seeing my sisters for a while now. Also only Thais to receive the vaccine, even though I probably pay more tax towards the health dept than most in my village country... Have a great day everyone. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Hearing of delays in vaccine administration in a hospital in Glasgow today for over 3hrs because no one booked any vaccinators. But this is all going well and we shouldnt be angry. If something like that IS really happening you can 100% guarantee the journos will be all over it like a rash at the daily briefing. There will be tons of rumours doing the rounds given we are in the facebook era but it's box office headline wise for the media right now so I'd be very surprised if any incident like that that actually does occur doesn't see the light of day.That said medical procedures get cancelled day in day out due to staff shortage. Add in the pandemic causing increased sickness and isolation it would be understandable if vaccinations were affected like everything else. Difference at the moment is supply is slack enough for it to make no overall difference but that will hopefully change in coming weeks and we have been assured staffing will be ramped up accordingly. ETA the Evening Times had a front page splash complaining about nurses having to queue "in the freezing cold" for their vaccine. The accompanying picture showed about a dozen folk waiting. WT actual F surely lines of people getting vaccinated is a good thing. We need to get the idea that this should be like a normal gp 10 min spaced appointment process in the bin asap. We need to see more queues and if it's nhs staff complaining about standing in line for a few minutes for their jab to the press quite frankly f**k them ! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 hour ago, SlipperyP said: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2046367/qualified-hope 2 years to end the epidemic in Thailand & 70% vaccination for the population until tourist are full allowed to return. Won't be seeing my sisters for a while now. Also only Thais to receive the vaccine, even though I probably pay more tax towards the health dept than most in my village country... Have a great day everyone. Yep, the locals only thing worries me a little here, but then again if all locals are vaccinated I suppose I won't need it - and, as we're getting the Chinese jab I'm probably amongst the lucky ones. Happy New Year to you and yours! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aufc Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 What about younger folk who got fucked with it, my BiLs pal was a fit marathon runner who got it and struggles to get up a flight of stairs months later. Dont think a cold leaves that sort of impact.Not meaning to sound like a w**k but that is one is how many thousands? There will always be a few that suffer long term from it which is sadly a result of most viruses 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Still in Kent and trains just cancelled into London. FFS. Anyway Wife called to say she is getting Vaccinated in the community hospital St Andrews on Friday. She is a Dental Hygienist so certainly classed as front line heath worker. I asked her if it was a free for all when booking. Apparently not she says. Spoke to a human being. Where did you get the numer from I asks. No Joke this. The Janny in the building she says. Finger on the pulse these guys. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 hours ago, philpy said: Takes one to know one. At which point did I suggest that?? The point I'm trying to make is there are young people going out to house parties every weekend and just not giving a f**k. This poor lad has stuck by the rules and made sacrifices to try and make a future for himself. It's just very sad that depression and loneliness took its toll. There was obviously something going on that impacted on him but I think you might be making a bit of a leap. It only happened the other day and he was the "nephew of a customer". How do you know the circumstances that you can attribute it to the pandemic? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, philpy said: Takes one to know one. It doesn't take Lee Wallace to know what a grass is, so no, your playground 'logic' doesn't actually stack up at all. Quote At which point did I suggest that?? Right here: 10 hours ago, philpy said: It should act as a wake up call to the younger generation that don't give a f**k about restrictions. that poor lad was sticking to the rules and was working with his uncle to hopefully learn a trade if things didn't work out with studies. You've just linked one young man's tragic suicide to those who 'don't give a f**k about restrictions'. Which is completely ridiculous, even leaving to one side the question of how your panopticon works to tell who is definitively 'sticking to the rules' and who isn't. Quote The point I'm trying to make is there are young people going out to house parties every weekend and just not giving a f**k. This poor lad has stuck by the rules and made sacrifices to try and make a future for himself. It's just very sad that depression and loneliness took its toll. Then the only logical conclusion is that the current restrictions puts a significant burden on the mental health of all young people, which makes a handful of them breaking restrictions explicable even if we should not commend them for doing so. That's the only credible 'wake-up call' from this episode rather than some garbled morality play nonsense. Edited January 6, 2021 by vikingTON 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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