Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[djchapsticks]

3 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

In what way ? I quite categorically said it wasn't the case the vaccine wasn't working so no idea what your getting at. The vaccine is working so I fully expect every LA to be sub 50 cases in what will be the best part if 8 weeks.

Based on everything we have seen so far if it's not the case come end April something will have gone drastically wrong. I don't think it will so sub 50 we should be nation wide.

In 8 weeks time, whether we are sub 50 or not should not be the driving force behind what level we are in.

Yeah it should be monitored whilst the programme is continuing to roll out but the trigger point from now on, with an effective vaccine in place should be hospital cases.

[10menwent2mow]

Can’t tell if you are being dense or actively ignoring the point. When we get to the point of easing restrictions, cases will undoubtedly rocket up amongst the younger unvaccinated population, despite it likely having next to no impact on hospital and death rates, so if we base anything on case numbers then it’s going to be farcical.

The younger unvaccinated population just need to be sensible and not go and get tested if they have a wee cough, sorted.

[Billy Jean King]

Can’t tell if you are being dense or actively ignoring the point. When we get to the point of easing restrictions, cases will undoubtedly rocket up amongst the younger unvaccinated population, despite it likely having next to no impact on hospital and death rates, so if we base anything on case numbers then it’s going to be farcical.

No idea if the loosening will be incrementally "big" enough to allow cases to rocket. Depends how much we loosen each time.

I dont disagree that cases shouldn't be the measure but as a baseline if they are the figs looked achievable.

[craigkillie]

Don't forget the media darling Devi.  Who, to be fair, is a doctor.  Of philosophy.  

This just means she has a PhD, that's literally what it stands for and doesn't mean you literally studied "philosophy" as a subject. Her PhD is in public health, that is what her background is.

[Elixir]

5 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

I'd have mentioned her, but I couldn't be arsed looking up what her field was. 

Philosophy though. f**k me 

I wish journalists would start asking why we seem to be incarcerated on the advice of a dentist and nutritionist/anthropologist, who hold fringe views which are at odds with the majority scientific consensus among virologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists about what the future holds for SARS-CoV-2 in the relatively near future, i.e. a background threat no greater than anything we have previously always lived with.

Also, a few months ago I specifically recall Leitch saying at a press conference that eventually we would be 'living with the virus in an endemic fashion, like we do with colds and flus and so on', but that the world 'isn't there yet'. I would like to know if he still holds this sensible belief, or if he has now been totally hoodwinked by Devi and Linda.

[Rodhull]

14 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

I'd have mentioned her, but I couldn't be arsed looking up what her field was. 

Philosophy though. f**k me 

It’s a Doctorate in Philosophy focusing on Medical Anthropology so it’s at least a bit more apt than just philosophy makes it sound.

[super_carson]

14 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

 

This just means she has a PhD, that's literally what it stands for and doesn't mean you literally studied "philosophy" as a subject. Her PhD is in public health, that is what her background is.

 

No, I know. But my point was more it’s not medical per se. I think a few folk have pointed out that the most prominent advisors aren’t those qualified in virology or epidemiology.  Perhaps allowing my frustration to get in the way of the point I’m trying to make. 

ETA: it’s not that I think her contributions are worthless, clearly she is qualified and her opinion is worth listening to.  But I don’t think it should be taken as gospel, and should be weighed up against the opinions of virologists, epidemiologists, economists, socialists, etc. I just feel that, mostly due to MSM, the debate and range of opinions presented have become skewed. It isn’t great when such a big issue like the pandemic appears to be being influenced by a narrow field of experts.

Edited March 2, 2021 by super_carson

[Bairnardo]

15 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

In what way ? I quite categorically said it wasn't the case the vaccine wasn't working so no idea what your getting at. The vaccine is working so I fully expect every LA to be sub 50 cases in what will be the best part if 8 weeks.

Based on everything we have seen so far if it's not the case come end April something will have gone drastically wrong. I don't think it will so sub 50 we should be nation wide.

As others have pointed out already, using cases as the driving metric is bullshit, and then inference of your post was that if we cant loosen because cases are high, that's the fault of the vaccine, when instead we should be acknowleding that case numbers are becoming irrelevant precisely because the vaccine is wildly exceeding its stated aims

[effeffsee_the2nd]

this can only be acceptable if the "levels" are far less restrictive than last year .  Needing under 50 cases to leave your local authority in the middle of july? get tae f**k .

The vast majority of rules can't be enforced en mass so forced business closures aside many more people will just say f**k it and do as they please, just as they are now

 

when it comes to covid vs independence, a lot of people could look at whats happening hear and in the republic of Ireland where they are talking about mid july before any real loosening, and are actualy using police roadbocks to keep people in line.  plenty folk could see that and think well if this is what independence looks like then you can stick it up your arse

Edited March 2, 2021 by effeffsee_the2nd

[ICTChris]

Interesting interview with the head of the UK genome sequencing team.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-variants-mutations-latest-brazil-uk-b1809685.html

[Jamie_B]

8 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

this can only be acceptable if the "levels" are far less restrictive than last year .  Needing under 50 cases to leave your local authority in the middle of july? get tae f**k .

The vast majority of rules can't be enforced en mass so forced business closures aside many more people will just say f**k it and do as they please, just as they are now

Given vast tracts of Scotland are already at or below that level (and several very close), with cases trending down already, with eight weeks of restrictions until we get to that point and the likelihood that 3.5m plus adults in Scotland will have had at least a first dose by then, I'd be astounded if many - if any - local authority areas are much above 50 cases per 100,000 people by the end of April when this actually becomes an issue.

The whole point is that the vaccine prevents infection and onwards transmission in and by the overwhelming majority of people who take it. By the end of April the overwhelming majority of people will have had at least a first dose. There obviously needs to be *some* kind of measure by which it is decided how things move up and down - though cases probably isn't particularly meaningful by the time the vaccine rollout has got to that stage. However, if cases are much over 50 per 100,000 somewhere by the time most people who are actually likely to get sick have had the vaccine then it suggests there's a problem in that particular area either with uptake or something else.

We'll see how the vaccine stats look this week but from all the noises being made it seems to me like virtually everyone who wants one could comfortably have had their first dose by the end of May, never mind the end of July, even with the second dose programme ramping up.

Edited March 2, 2021 by Jamie_Beatson

[Todd_is_God]

I see the legal challenge down South from the hospitality industry was successful in demonstrating that the industry specific restrictions were discriminatory.

No more requirements to order food with alcohol, and no more curfews, unless the Government can provide proof these are beneficial (i.e. "drunk people can't social distance" isn't enough).

I will assume the verdict has no direct bearing up here, but I wonder if the SG will avoid such petty restrictions this time round.

[Left Back]

33 minutes ago, super_carson said:

Don't forget the media darling Devi.  Who, to be fair, is a doctor.  Of philosophy.  

Some pair.  We're basing a pandemic response on the advice of a dentist who's getting his info from god and a doctor of philosophy who believes in making your own sunshine.

It's actually quite frightening.

[Marshmallo]

1 minute ago, Jamie_Beatson said:

Given vast tracts of Scotland are already at or below that level (and several very close), with cases trending down already, with eight weeks of restrictions until we get to that point and the likelihood that 3.5m plus adults in Scotland will have had at least a first dose by then, I'd be astounded if many - if any - local authority areas are much above 50 cases per 100,000 people by the end of April when this actually becomes an issue.

The whole point is that the vaccine prevents infection and onwards transmission in and by the overwhelming majority of people who take it. By the end of April the overwhelming majority of people will have had at least a first dose. There obviously needs to be *some* kind of measure by which it is decided how things move up and down - though cases probably isn't particularly meaningful by the time the vaccine rollout has got to that stage. However, if cases are much over 50 per 100,000 somewhere by the time most people who are actually going to get sick have had the vaccine then it suggests there's a problem in that particular area either with uptake or something else.

We'll see how the vaccine stats look this week but from all the noises being made it seems to me like virtually everyone who wants one could comfortably have had their first dose by the end of May, never mind the end of July, even with the second dose programme ramping up.

I take your point, but if the NHS is not being overwhelmed then when it comes to easing of restrictions it ultimately doesn't matter if it's 2 cases per 100,000 or 2,000 cases per 100,000.

[Marshmallo]

1 minute ago, Left Back said:

Some pair.  We're basing a pandemic response on the advice of a dentist who's getting his info from god and a doctor of philosophy who believes in making your own sunshine.

It's actually quite frightening.

Aka The Guys

[craigkillie]

8 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I will assume the verdict has no direct bearing up here, but I wonder if the SG will avoid such petty restrictions this time round.

I would hope it would at least make them think twice about imposing similar restrictions.

[Elixir]

Who could have thought it?

Meanwhile:

 

[renton]

48 minutes ago, super_carson said:

Don't forget the media darling Devi.  Who, to be fair, is a doctor.  Of philosophy.  

So are vast tracts of people who work in biological science, epidemiology and public health (or indeed any field of science)

 

Edited March 2, 2021 by renton

[Left Back]

11 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I see the legal challenge down South from the hospitality industry was successful in demonstrating that the industry specific restrictions were discriminatory.

No more requirements to order food with alcohol, and no more curfews, unless the Government can provide proof these are beneficial (i.e. "drunk people can't social distance" isn't enough).

I will assume the verdict has no direct bearing up here, but I wonder if the SG will avoid such petty restrictions this time round.

Got a link to this?

[Burnieman]

15 minutes ago, Jamie_Beatson said:

We'll see how the vaccine stats look this week but from all the noises being made it seems to me like virtually everyone who wants one could comfortably have had their first dose by the end of May, never mind the end of July, even with the second dose programme ramping up.

If we get back to a steady 30k first jag on a daily basis, then all adults will be done by end of May/early June. We should also probably have all 1-4's done twice before then as well.