Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, stanton said:

https://theferret.scot/ag-barr-bank-short-selling-coronavirus/

f**k the recipe change, I'm going to order a crate.

[madwullie]

6 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Starslatercodex blog on predicting the pandemic

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/

That was a fucking brilliant read mate  

[Thereisalight..]

My birthday is in early May, anyone think I’ll be able to travel to a nearby town for a haircut by then? 

[madwullie]

3 hours ago, pandarilla said:

I agree, but that was today's interview i think, as opposed to yesterday's.

He's a bullying c**t but the difference between her and someone like sturgeon is immense. Sturgeon is absolutely on top of the detail during this crisis, and when faced with a difficult question she gives a much more honest answer (don't get me wrong she's still a politician but she's clearly empathetic and very switched on).

With the possible exception of the chancellor, the London govt have been shown up for the two-bit bluffing c***s they are. So far out of their depth it's scary.
 

What's particularly ridiculous about this is there has been outcry that this question hasn't been properly addressed at the 5pm briefings. Hancock and that nurse woman got pelters in the press about it (I think he said "some" nurses have died ) so for this woman to go onto gmb presumably being aware of all that hubbub, to not have prepared even to the extent of having that number is fucking scandalous. Unless she was expecting a proper softball interview, in which case, hard fucking cheese. 

[tamthebam]

3 hours ago, Markka said:

 

 

If you're in the Ally Arms again my advice would be to never to follow several bottles of Williams Bros seaweed ale with a Afghani Masala from Shaheds along the road. Both are fine in their own right but together cause unpleasantness.

 

Seaweed ale? So bladderwrack turns you into a bladdered wreck...

[coprolite]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Regarding the temporary hospitals not being used (the Louisa Jordan) or used sparingly (The Excel Nightingale), I think this is quite interesting.  I remember last month the graphs from the Imperial college model showed ICU beds being completely used up in almost all scenarios.  That doesn't seem to have happened, yet.  We have significant numbers of deaths but not an overrun healthcare system.  

Was the model wrong?

Have we increased ICU capaicty so significantly that we've managed to avoid negative impact?  Is negative impact coming?

What impact has freeing up the ICU beds had on non-Covid patients?  There have been significant increases in non-Covid deaths, is that linked to this?

Could it be that the virus has had a more serious impact on infected people leading them to die, thus freeing up beds to avoid a collapse of the NHS?

All models are wrong. It's just a question of whether they are more useful than any alternatives. I believe bookies were suggested earlier in the thread. 

[tamthebam]

Ah Britain. A country where they raise money for their health service by getting folk to pay a 99 year old man to walk round his garden instead of taxing Starbucks and Amazon because that's too hard to do 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

3 minutes ago, tamthebam said:

Ah Britain. A country where they raise money for their health service by getting folk to pay a 99 year old man to walk round his garden instead of taxing Starbucks and Amazon because that's too hard to do 

When was the last time you got a Moccachoccafrappacino from a 99 year old?

(actually don’t answer that)

[Melanius Mullarkey]

14 minutes ago, coprolite said:

All models are wrong. It's just a question of whether they are more useful than any alternatives. I believe bookies were suggested earlier in the thread. 

All science is paddy power.

(c) youknowwho 

[Theroadlesstravelled]

45 minutes ago, stanton said:

https://theferret.scot/ag-barr-bank-short-selling-coronavirus/

Horrible.

Only slightly worse than Dundee Football Club.

[pandarilla]

Has Nicola apologised for deaths?

She's acknowledged that mistakes will be made but she's going to do everything she can - and i get the impression (although understandably she can't ever say it) that she'd have taken stricter measures, sooner.

I know he gets slated on here but i thought peston's question was a good one. We should be trusted to have a grown up conversation about what is the best course of action next. Explain all the details and all their reasoning, and let the media and other political parties into the discussion.

This isn't a war against an enemy that might be listening.

[jagfox]

58 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

My birthday is in early May, anyone think I’ll be able to travel to a nearby town for a haircut by then? 

Nope. Get some clippers ordered online...

[WhiteRoseKillie]

Nope. Get some clippers ordered online...

Aye, good luck with that. I realised yesterday that I'm Now looking more like the wild Man of Borneo every day, so thought I'd get a basic set of Wahl Clippers. None available anywhere - best I've managed is a Braun set from Argos to pick up on Monday.

Looks like clippers are this week's bog roll.

[beefybake]

3 hours ago, D.A.F.C said:

The new labour government are already messing up by asking questions that have already been answered.

If the new leader can only come up with the question about getting out of lockdown then that’s pretty pathetic. TBF the Tories have said they will be guided by scientific facts and will simply swat away the labour question so easily.

They were asked on the radio today ‘well what’s labours plan’ and they responded with ‘we aren’t privy to the science from the meetings that the government has’. What kind of an opposition is this? There used to be lots of credible and decent labour mps I haven’t seen one for years and voted snp because of this.

I think the short answer is that in a national emergency,  you can't have the ordinary, day to day combat of parliamentary opposition.   

The question about lockdown seems very reasonable to me.  Timely, and slightly under the radar politic.

Other countries over the last several days have been stating in general terms the when, how, and whats of ending lockdown.

Whereas , at Westminster, they're floundering around in a sea of cluenessness.

Reasonable question by Starmer.

[steve55]

Professor Francis Boyle makes some good points here:

 

 

[steve55]

It appears that China was doing research that the US had banned, so they circumvented US law by doing it in China...

 

I have said before, this thing is a bioweapon.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211291/U-S-government-gave-3-7million-grant-Wuhan-lab-experimented-coronavirus-source-bats.html

 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211257/Wuhan-lab-performing-experiments-bats-coronavirus-caves.html

Edited April 15, 2020 by steve55

[dorlomin]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Regarding the temporary hospitals not being used (the Louisa Jordan) or used sparingly (The Excel Nightingale), I think this is quite interesting.  I remember last month the graphs from the Imperial college model showed ICU beds being completely used up in almost all scenarios.  That doesn't seem to have happened, yet.  We have significant numbers of deaths but not an overrun healthcare system.  

Was the model wrong?

 

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

This is the graph

The models made a significant error. They assumed unwell people would continue to go to hospital. Instead it very strongly appears that many people are not attending hospital even with life threatening conditions. It may be down to fear of the disease but I strongly suspect its mostly down to not wanting to "distrub" the doctors from their current crisis.

The ONS, our stats body, shows an excess mortality of over 6000 people for their last full week of data over the average for that week for the past 5 years. Subtracting the identified Covid19 cases that means about 2000 people a week more are dying who either have Covid 19 and are not being diagnosed, or worse simply not attending hospital for treatable conditions  that kill them. If this is the case then far more people who need medical help are not attending and surviving. This may include things like heart attacks where someone has a serious pain in their chest for a while and it goes away. But by not attending hospital they now have long term damage to their heart that could have been mitigated against. Dr Campbell's (whos excellent videos have been posted on this thread and should be a must watch for anyone wanting to keep up to date) has said he has heard from specialists their case loads in emergency are dropping, I have heard "medlifecrisis" a cardiologist who produces youtube videos say the same things. Its being reported around the world. 

We have people dying at home the models thought would be ill enough with Covid 19 to seek medical help.

We have people dying and surviving conditions at home that we have a multibillion pound medical system set up to help. 

I suspect this story will hit the press in the coming week or two and there will be a push to encourage people to go to the hospitals. We have the capacity to help them. 

As an aside an excess mortality of 6000 is pretty fucking grim given we have smashed our economy to slow this disease. Unchecked it does not bear thinking about. 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by dorlomin

[steve55]

3 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Aye super definitely going to watch an infowars video

Do you dismiss it without even watching it?

[Alert Mongoose]

[steve55]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8221381/Back-grind-11-yards-place-Thomas-Hardy-wrote-Return-Native-action.html

People are now buying up all the flour, so they have opned up an old 11th century water-mill