bendan Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 20 minutes ago, Wee Bully said: 1. The Scottish Government thinks its hovering around 1 (maybe lower, but not far off). What do you think it is? 0.9, 0.5? 2. Is it your view that TTI is useful regardless of the R number, and if so, why? In the general Scottish population it clearly hasn't been above 1 for any significant period of time for quite a while. But they aren't going to ease the lockdown at 0.95 because it will go up above 1. The whole point of TTI is to drive down R, from whatever level it currently is. That is the WHO view and the view of countries like South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: At some point it will be up to those in vulnerable groups to look after themselves and minimise risk. The expectation that we can put everything on hold or maintain a magical 2m gap between everyone until the virus just goes away is absolutely mindblowing I agree in general terms but public transport is high risk and we certainly cannot get back to anything approaching normal when people are cramming onto it. These people are just going to turn into super spreaders and will render the relaxing of other measures (go and see family, shops/restaurants reopening etc) into a total disaster. If you can keep people off public transport you stand a better chance of avoiding the dreaded second wave or at least reducing its impact. It should only be used if it's absolutely necessary - otherwise it's taking risks that don't need to be taken. The vast majority of desk jobs can be done from home and this should be encouraged for the foreseeable future. Yes, planning should be undertaken to get people back in the office, but for city centre locations this should be a longer-term plan taking into account transport difficulties. I include private cars in that too because whilst those that can drive can obviously use them even if they generally choose not to, there will be a lack of capacity to park them all. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: What? The excess deaths figure being is being widely used to determine the "true number" It's exactly the same thing The ons have made it clear our deaths are under-reported if anything. Ediy: ah I misread ict Chris initial post. Ignore and carry on Edited May 12, 2020 by madwullie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Just now, Inanimate Carbon Rod said: We can use our corona virus legislation around necessary travel etc but manning it would be a massive undertaking. The absolute mewling madness from the rainjurs 1690 brigade ‘you ur ma prime ministur’ when hes clearly out of his depth suggests the UK as a society is doomed to fail. Imagine being that much of a forelock tugging arsehole you’d put eradication of a virus behind being staunch. Yeah the whole policing thing is a logistical nightmare. The same as trying to minimise social contact outwith households. Mind you if we shot two or three holiday homers it could act as a deterrent and become self policing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyderspaceman Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, SlipperyP said: They are not shitting it, this is just UK media ramping it up. They have problem tracing all the people in the night clubs as many sign in with not their real names. Reason, there is few gay clubs in the area and homosexuality is still a little taboo, therefore people sign in with an alias. Carry on. What's your alias, SP? Now, is that an acceptable joke or is it homophobic? I don't know these days. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 minute ago, cyderspaceman said: What's your alias, SP? Now, is that an acceptable joke or is it homophobic? I don't know these days. It's probably an acceptable homophobic joke. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, cyderspaceman said: What's your alias, SP? Now, is that an acceptable joke or is it homophobic? I don't know these days. If I were posting it then it would be funny; in your case it’s outright homophobia. HTH. Edited May 12, 2020 by Granny Danger 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlipperyP Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, cyderspaceman said: What's your alias, SP? Now, is that an acceptable joke or is it homophobic? I don't know these days. I don't need one, Thailand is a very open society, somewhere the rest of the world can learn from. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, renton said: By very low I believe it needs to be < 0.5, last week it was somewhere between 0.7 and 1, and obviously it will continue to drop assuming we limit any new infection vectors. If we have no new restrictions and no new interventions, why would it drop, other than through luck? Of course, if it's consistently below 1 the number of cases will drop, but the rate itself is determined by how much contact is taking place. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Theres a lot of "as long as neccessary" chat around here, but we dont hold the strings for furlough, and if no vaccine is shortcoming in a record breaking short time, then the current model is not sustainable. "As long as possible" is more realistic, and it wont be possible for long not to change it. Failure to create a vaccine surely forces us further and further down the road of having to try for herd immunity? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennett Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said: We can use our corona virus legislation around necessary travel etc but manning it would be a massive undertaking. The absolute mewling madness from the rainjurs 1690 brigade ‘you ur ma prime ministur’ when hes clearly out of his depth suggests the UK as a society is doomed to fail. Imagine being that much of a forelock tugging arsehole you’d put eradication of a virus behind being staunch. It was only a matter of time before this happened, we get the blame for everything. You need to have a laugh or two right now, cheers Rod. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, SlipperyP said: I don't need one, Thailand is a very open society, somewhere the rest of the world can learn from. Don’t they have a booming ‘bride sale’ business? Not sure we can learn much from that, or would want to. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Just now, bennett said: It was only a matter of time before this happened, we get the blame for everything. You need to have a laugh or two right now, cheers Rod. You are to blame for everything. I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re tucking into a bowl of bat soup right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, SlipperyP said: I don't need one, Thailand is a very open society, somewhere the rest of the world can learn from. And blessed by a very wise and noble King, I'm sure you'll agree. Edited May 12, 2020 by welshbairn 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Theres a lot of "as long as neccessary" chat around here, but we dont hold the strings for furlough, and if no vaccine is shortcoming in a record breaking short time, then the current model is not sustainable. "As long as possible" is more realistic, and it wont be possible for long not to change it. Failure to create a vaccine surely forces us further and further down the road of having to try for herd immunity? Pretty much this.We're going to have to manage the risk, and that involves some complex rules and some difficult messaging.Think of the folk who have been given a number of years or months to live. Now fortunately it's not a huge number but those people are being robbed of their time.Keeping the nhs going strong and caring for those who catch it is vital. But indefinite lockdown is simply not an option. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, bendan said: If we have no new restrictions and no new interventions, why would it drop, other than through luck? Of course, if it's consistently below 1 the number of cases will drop, but the rate itself is determined by how much contact is taking place. It drops because the longer you stay in isolation, the more infections currently being carried are removed as the infection passes. In other words, R is also a measurement of the potential number of infection vectors in a population. Take two socially isolated groups one where 1/10 in the group is infected, and one where 7/10 is infected. Despite the lack of contact in both groups the latter group has a much higher R value as the chances of the uninfected members of the group contracting an infected member once lockdown is removed is far higher. Edited May 12, 2020 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennett Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: You are to blame for everything. I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re tucking into a bowl of bat soup right now. I'm not Fester Addams, tho there is some resemblance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, bendan said: If we have no new restrictions and no new interventions, why would it drop, other than through luck? Of course, if it's consistently below 1 the number of cases will drop, but the rate itself is determined by how much contact is taking place. The rate will be determined by how much contact there is between an infected host and a susceptible victim. As more people get and recover from the virus that number will drop. Restrictions or no restrictions. The difference between restrictions and no restrictions being by limiting exposure, the number of susceptible remains high when you restrict Edited May 12, 2020 by Todd_is_God 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 It was only a matter of time before this happened, we get the blame for everything. You need to have a laugh or two right now, cheers Rod. Its your lot on twitter screaming about how you’ll only listen to the UK guidance, phoning the radio with the same pish and being videoed with the street parties and union jack bunting fucking up everyone else’s efforts just because #staunch. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteRoseKillie Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 1 hour ago, bendan said: Why is it the people who post these things are the least likely to visit their family under normal circumstances. Take away the picture, then. Do you disagree with ythe sentiment? Because I fucking don't. Two of my grandkids I can wave to over the back fence if I'm not at work when they get their daily walk. The other one I haven't seen for over a month. Other than two weeks WFH, I have been at work (and yes, I speak with my Governor every day) throughout this situation. My sister was diagnosed with a high-grade tumour about a month ago, and started her chemotherapy at the Beatson yesterday. I know exactly what it's like looking down the wrong end of a course of cancer treatment, yet my only contact allowed is by telephone. This pandemic crisis is fucking people's lives up to a greater or lesser extent. Financially and employment-wise, things are OK Chez WRK. Emotionally, we're on a daily tightrope. It is easy to see from the posts on here who is and who isn't going through stuff they struggle with. It's also easy to se those who are happy to take a sabbatical from the world of work. Please be a bit kinder to those whose circumstances you know fúck all about. ..or I'll set the SatNav for Ruel St. and break the guidelines. If you bring yer maw, that is. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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