Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[scottmcleanscontacts]

I would hope it wouldn't be necessary, certainly not necessary in large areas of the country where there's very few cases or none at all.
 

This is my viewpoint. Haven't seen the data for a day or two but Perth/Tayside/whatever has very little cases in comparison to other areas. Same could be said for large swathes of the country. Any enforced national lockdown is in my view a very big risk for the Scottish Government. It's largely the case that people have generally 'behaved' themselves but there will come a point that there's a backlash - if we're not seeing it slightly already.

[Steven W]

15 minutes ago, Snafu said:

From the BBC, has the second wave already washed up and is about to recede?

The growth in cases of coronavirus may be slowing down, the largest study of the infection in England suggests.

A team at Imperial College London analysed samples from 84,000 people chosen at random from across the country.

They said the R number, the virus's reproduction number, appears to have fallen since measures including the "rule of six" were introduced.

However, they warn cases are high, with one in every 200 people infected.

The React study is highly influential, both due to its size and because it gives an up-to-date picture of how the virus is spreading. The last samples used in the analysis were collected as recently as Saturday.

It was the previous React report that found infections were doubling every seven to eight days in late August and early September.

This, in turn, led to warnings that there could be 50,000 cases a day by mid-October if that pattern continued.

Then the research group estimated the R number for their study - the average number of people each infected person is passing the virus on to - was 1.7.

The latest analysis, of swab samples collected between 19 and 26 September, suggests the R number has fallen to about 1.1 - although the precise figure is uncertain.

However this is not the same as the official R number produced by Sage, the government's scientific advisers, every week. That is put together using estimates from a wide range of data sources and studies, including this one.

The researchers said it was the first hint that measures such as the "rule of six", and heightened public concern about coronavirus, "may be having an impact on transmission".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54366478

Its clearly going to happen. All this faffing, posturing, contemplating etc pisses me off.

Its going to happen - just tell us. And it its going to be two weeks, see that its two weeks. If it goes on longer (which it will) the public will lose faith in SG

[scottmcleanscontacts]

Falkirk has two (this year). It's to off-set the fact that school started a week earlier (when the kids went in for one day)

Therein lies part of the issue. I don't know about other areas but Perth and Kinross have historically always had two weeks in October and they are giving the 'lost week' back in the summer holidays at the end of this school year/start of next (can't remember if they are going to end early or start late).

[Steven W]

2 minutes ago, scottmcleanscontacts said:

5 minutes ago, Snafu said:

I would hope it wouldn't be necessary, certainly not necessary in large areas of the country where there's very few cases or none at all.
 

This is my viewpoint. Haven't seen the data for a day or two but Perth/Tayside/whatever has very little cases in comparison to other areas. Same could be said for large swathes of the country. Any enforced national lockdown is in my view a very big risk for the Scottish Government. It's largely the case that people have generally 'behaved' themselves but there will come a point that there's a backlash - if we're not seeing it slightly already.

The SG have had a blanket approach from day one. 

[D.A.F.C]

Parents can just magic up babysitters and holidays from nowhere and businesses can lose two weeks revenue?

[scottmcleanscontacts]

The SG have had a blanket approach from day one. 

In the first instance it was arguably the right call. Nobody really had a clue what was going on, and arguably still don't. However, to enforce any hard lockdown on areas that are at the moment almost free of the virus is asking for bother.

Let's say they put travel restrictions on any any areas that are currently seeing high cases then it stands to reason that the areas that aren't so hard hit would still be ok. I don't know. Fed up now.

[Steven W]

1 minute ago, D.A.F.C said:

Parents can just magic up babysitters and holidays from nowhere and businesses can lose two weeks revenue?

I've used the word 'dictactorial' several times recently. She can do whatever she wants. . (Granted its with some just cause)

[Michael W]

Locking the country down for two weeks to stop covid-infected kids spreading the virus, is it?

If only there was another solution there. 

[Szamo's_Ammo]

If they're going to lock down the country for two weeks and go back to the same state of affairs afterwards then there really is no point.

We'll just end up needing to have a lockdown again during the Christmas holidays.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Szamo's_Ammo

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

11 minutes ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

If they're going to lock down the country for two weeks and go back to the same state of affairs afterwards then there really is no point.

We'll just end up needing to have a lockdown again during the Christmas holidays.

Having lockdowns every time the kids have their school holidays is a a plan, at least.

[David W]

29 minutes ago, Gaz said:

How many LAs around the country don't have schools off for 2 weeks in October?

Falkirk and West Lothian have one, Stirling have two?

East Renfrewshire council is 1 week, plus 1 in-service day.

[MP_MFC]

I'm as pro SNP and sturgeon as they come without straying into the mile out protest at the border types, but if they lockdown to coincide with the schools being off in order to drive rates and transmission down and then open back up with schools back straight away without blended learning then they will have jumped the fucking shark when it comes to being honest with us about the roles school play in transmission.

[Detournement]

Just as I'm starting to get some strength back the Crankie regime talks about shutting the gym. Raging. 

Asking businesses to swallow the costs of a shutdown at short notice that probably won't make any difference overall would surely be politically suicidal. Extremely bad news for domestic tourism. 

And in news that should shock no one holiday hot spot Turkey have admitted they are fudging their infection figures. Todd may have stayed over there to straighten them out.

 

 

[Distant Doonhamer]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

Just as I'm starting to get some strength back the Crankie regime talks about shutting the gym. Raging. 

Asking businesses to swallow the costs of a shutdown at short notice that probably won't make any difference overall would surely be politically suicidal. Extremely bad news for domestic tourism. 

And in news that should shock no one holiday hot spot Turkey have admitted they are fudging their infection figures. Todd may have stayed over there to straighten them out.

 

 

[Detournement]

6 minutes ago, Snafu said:

I'm assuming the idea is close to the New Zealand model.

They locked down hard, saved a lot of people but absolutely f***ed the economy.

 

Close to the New Zealand model apart from the tiny difference of not quarantining people who enter the country. 

My guess is Sturgeon and Devi saw all the international praise Adern was getting back in the spring and decided to try and make themselves the northern hemisphere version.  

Edited October 1, 2020 by Detournement

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

If they’re going to do it they should stop fucking hinting about it like yer mrs over a christmas present ‘oh wouldnt a circuit breaker be just lovely this year’. Last time they shut businesses it was a nightmare to get alternative childcare arrangements and they’ll now expect emergency and nhs workers to get it sorted again with what will be less than a weeks notice. They’re absolutely losing the plot. 

[Distant Doonhamer]

stricter lockdown in Northern England

[Gaz]

31 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Parents can just magic up babysitters and holidays from nowhere and businesses can lose two weeks revenue?

Well, in fairness, even if Covid wasn't a thing it's not like folk get to the end of September and then have a SURPRISE!!!!! October holiday to think of.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

5 minutes ago, Gaz said:

Well, in fairness, even if Covid wasn't a thing it's not like folk get to the end of September and then have a SURPRISE!!!!! October holiday to think of.

Most childcare providers/private nurseries stay open during school holidays but during the last lockdown ours was forced to close by the LA, the alternative provision wasn’t suitable so it is a nightmare. 

[Ron Aldo]

Are the SG just thick or completely devoid of any ideas outside of "aw we better just shut everything".

We had a lockdown for 3-4 months and *shock horror* cases started to rise when things reopened, schools in particular. What difference do they really think a 2 week lockdown is going to make given the first lockdown has already shown that there were only short to mid-term benefits at best.

I'd also expect that compliance with a 2nd lockdown would be far lower than first time round. Back in March there was a genuine feeling amongst more or less everyone that we were "in this together" but, despite what that muppet Devi might say, that clearly isn't the case today. Not everyone's job is hanging by a thread, not everyone's mental health is in tatters and not everyone has been unable to see some relatives since March.

In short, Nicola and Jason can get the idea of a 2nd lockdown right in the bin as far as I'm concerned.