Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[GordonS]

36 minutes ago, Hedgecutter said:

Judging by the consistent lack of closing quotation marks throughout that piece, I'm not particularly convinced that the owner of Ziggy's actually said "thickest thieves".

#dailyrecord

It's on their Facebook:

 

[RiG]

1 minute ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

"It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas xx ❤" Instagram is going to take a big hit this winter.

There will be a significant drop in #content and #hottakes in Edinburgh this festive period.

[renton]

26 minutes ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

There was a report on the BBC this morning in regards to Italy and their low infection rates during the second wave compared to the other big hitters from the first wave (UK, France, Spain).

They did mention- but only as a footnote- that the schools have only just gone back in Italy (2 weeks ago). In the UK and France the schools were reopened in August, and at the beginning of September in Spain. It will be interesting to see what the case numbers are in Italy in 4-6 weeks. They did manage to get their case numbers down in the summer far more successfully than France and Spain.

New Covid cases on 18 August:

UK- 1,089
France- 2,238
Spain- 5,114
Italy- 401

New Covid cases on 30 September:

UK- 7,108
France- 12,845
Spain- 11,016
Italy- 1,850

As far as I can tell, these nations didn't experience a huge spike in cases when pubs, restaurants, cinemas, etc, opened months earlier.

I think it's clear that younger age groups are less likely to pick up the virus and transmit it. The other factors you mentioned that go hand in hand with the reopening of schools are part of the problem. There are loads of different branches of possible sources of infection that are opened up with a section of society as large as education being reopened.

If schooling had went ahead with the blended learning model they prepared for during the summer the number of opportunities for these transmission events to occur would have been greatly reduced. Parents aren't going to be congregating at the gates, transport with no social distancing isn't going to be packed out, shops aren't going to be mobbed at lunchtime, etc, if the kids aren't there as much.

I expect the UK and Scottish governments will keep their fingers crossed and leave it another couple of weeks before taking any action.

The thing is that just because we didn't see a huge spike in cases a fortnight after pubs opened (Aberdeen super spreader aside) doesn't mean they aren't also still contributing to case loads. It just means that it occurs over a longer time frame. Same with house parties, retail and the like. No surprise that track and trace were reporting house gatherings - the least regulated of socialising- as driving case loads in Glasgow.

There will be some variable increase in prevelance rate through any increased interaction. On the retail and hospitality side we rely on enforced distancing, and probably behavioural changes in terms of how often we use those facilities  to drive the rate down, and in schools we rely on the reduced susceptibility of kids to keep it in check. In the middle are house parties and Uni dorms where there is lots of unregulated close contact amongst age groups more susceptible to infection and transmission. No wonder those appear to be the main drivers.

I don't disagree with your assertions regarding the blended learning in terms of risk aversion. At the very least it would have allowed greater differentiation of the various causes through Autumn. Having said that, its debatable to what degree their planning was logistically practicable, or to what degree actual learning would take place under that model. Certainly the local authorities seemed less than enthusiastic about taking up Swinney's challenge to he imaginative. If we are to balance the concept of harm through the disease vs. The harm due to restrictions, then that applies to kids education as well as hospitality and football (and f**k knows i am desperate to get back to the football and the pub properly)

Edited October 1, 2020 by renton

[renton]

15 minutes ago, RiG said:

The Edinburgh Christmas market has been cancelled which is especially disappointing as I now don't know where I am going buy a hot dog for £8 or a small cup of mulled win for £5  

Don't forget the Nutella in boiled water.

[Detournement]

It reminds of this. Some weird American who was obessed with flying. 

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/sep/19/american-airlines-aairpass-golden-ticket

It's extremely depressing and shows the guy in a terrible light despite his daughter trying to make him the victim. 

[D.A.F.C]

Yup!

Bus w****r

[The Moonster]

37 minutes ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

"It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas xx ❤" Instagram is going to take a big hit this winter.

I'm genuinely giddy at the thought of social media in the event that Christmas gets cancelled. I can't fucking wait for it and if the SNP want my vote they better announce a lockdown in December.

[Szamo's_Ammo]

52 minutes ago, renton said:

It just means that it occurs over a longer time frame. Same with house parties, retail and the like. No surprise that track and trace were reporting house gatherings - the least regulated of socialising- as driving case loads in Glasgow.

There will be some variable increase in prevelance rate through any increased interaction. On the retail and hospitality side we rely on enforced distancing, and probably behavioural changes in terms of how often we use those facilities  to drive the rate down, and in schools we rely on the reduced susceptibility of kids to keep it in check. In the middle are house parties and Uni dorms where there is lots of unregulated close contact amongst age groups more susceptible to infection and transmission. No wonder those appear to be the main drivers.

I don't disagree with your assertions regarding the blended learning in terms of risk aversion. At the very least it would have allowed greater differentiation of the various causes through Autumn. Having said that, its debatable to what degree their planning was logistically practicable, or to what degree actual learning would take place under that model. Certainly the local authorities seemed less than enthusiastic about taking up Swinney's challenge to he imaginative. If we are to balance the concept of harm through the disease vs. The harm due to restrictions, then that applies to kids education as well as hospitality and football (and f**k knows i am desperate to get back to the football and the pub properly)

I didn't compare the change in the number of cases over a fortnight. I compared the change in the number of cases over 6 weeks.

In England, on 4 July (when a huge number of people went back to work in hospitality, retail, hairdressing etc and people could visit these places) there were 624 cases reported.

6 weeks later on 15 August, there were still only 1,077 cases reported.

If 6 weeks isn't long enough, we can look at the 29 August (8 weeks since hospitality, etc, reopening). The number of cases in England reported on that day was 1,108.

Maybe my street is different from the rest of the country but there were certainly more house parties and barbecues here during the summer months than there are now.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Szamo's_Ammo

[ICTChris]

There have been hundreds of positive cases in University halls of residence in the last few weeks - has there been any comparable outbreaks in schools?  

This story from the BBC from the start of September only lists one outbreak of significant postiives - Kingspark school in Dundee that saw 40 cases confirmed.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53833823

If schools were spreading the virus would we not expect to see clusters within schools themsevles, either among pupils or staff?  Is this happening or not?  The Scottish government publish a weekly update on Covid numbers relating to schools, there's one due today but it's not up yet.  Last weeks one, which covers dates up until 20th September, is here - https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/transparency-data/2020/09/covid-19-education-recovery-group-children-and-young-people-infographic/documents/children-and-young-people-infographic-24-september-2020/children-and-young-people-infographic-24-september-2020/govscot%3Adocument/CERG%2BInfographic%2B-%2B24092020.pdf

Headline figures

Since the start of the pandemic 704 people ages 2-17 years have tested positive in Scotland.

121 people aged 2-17 years tested positive in the week up to the 20th of September.

Number of staff absent due to Covid (either having symptoms, having tested positive or having to look after others) has reduced week on week since reopening.

You have to balance this off against the datat from Public Health England, which shows an increase in outbreaks in schools in the past few weeks.  I don't think we have similar figures produced for Scotland but you'd have to expect something similar, especaily in areas of high Covid prevelance.

Edited October 1, 2020 by ICTChris

[Jim McLean's Ghost]

21 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

There have been hundreds of positive cases in University halls of residence in the last few weeks - has there been any comparable outbreaks in schools?  

This story from the BBC from the start of September only lists one outbreak of significant postiives - Kingspark school in Dundee that saw 40 cases confirmed.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53833823

If schools were spreading the virus would we not expect to see clusters within schools themsevles, either among pupils or staff?  Is this happening or not?  The Scottish government publish a weekly update on Covid numbers relating to schools, there's one due today but it's not up yet.  Last weeks one, which covers dates up until 20th September, is here - https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/transparency-data/2020/09/covid-19-education-recovery-group-children-and-young-people-infographic/documents/children-and-young-people-infographic-24-september-2020/children-and-young-people-infographic-24-september-2020/govscot%3Adocument/CERG%2BInfographic%2B-%2B24092020.pdf

Headline figures

Since the start of the pandemic 704 people ages 2-17 years have tested positive in Scotland.

121 people aged 2-17 years tested positive in the week up to the 20th of September.

Number of staff absent due to Covid (either having symptoms, having tested positive or having to look after others) has reduced week on week since reopening.

You have to balance this off against the datat from Public Health England, which shows an increase in outbreaks in schools in the past few weeks.  I don't think we have similar figures produced for Scotland but you'd have to expect something similar, especaily in areas of high Covid prevelance.

I don't think your school to university comparison is apt.

Halls are a large shared residence, not a classroom. Touching the same door handles, kettle, tap as someone else has huge risk of passing on the virus. And generally people are more lax about distancing and hygene rules in their own private space (which halls are) compared to a public space like a school.

Part of the same reason people are banned from having house parties but can still go to the pub. Mostly because in the pub people are more likely to follow rules and reduce transmission. There is a social stigma to breaking rules in public places compared to private spaces.

[Miguel Sanchez]

1 hour ago, Detournement said:

It reminds of this. Some weird American who was obessed with flying. 

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/sep/19/american-airlines-aairpass-golden-ticket

It's extremely depressing and shows the guy in a terrible light despite his daughter trying to make him the victim. 

Quote

“I think it’s a beautiful thing,” she says. “I remember saying, at some times … to Steven … are we taking away [their] future experiences by showing you so much so young? But looking back, if it were [me], I’d much rather have had this global exposure as a child than waiting until I was an adult. Wouldn’t you say it framed you?”

“Yes,” I answer.

“Not only framed you,” she adds, “but it helped with your, your tapestry. It was woven into your tapestry. Into the fabric of who you are, and how you look at other people and the world.”

Fantastic content, and I've barely started.

[Donathan]

Turkey going on the quarantine list, unlucky Todd

[Miguel Sanchez]

Oh, there is

Quote

“When we were in India … we got so friendly with our cab driver that we brought him for dinner to the hotel … For a while we were in touch … We would send him pictures and things. That was the kind of richness that this AAirpass, this sense of a family traveling anywhere we wanted to go in the world that American could take us – that’s what we did. People enriched us. Hopefully we enriched others.”

Quote

“When everyone was asleep in the house,” he tells me, “and I had nobody to talk to, and I was lonely about Josh’s death, I would telephone American Airlines reservations and speak to the agents about who knows what for an hour and then at the end, they’d ask me, oh, what reservation was I calling about to make, and I would say, ‘Oh yeah, I need to go to San Francisco next week.’ I really didn’t need to go to San Francisco. I was just very confused and very lonely and I was calling American Airlines because they were logical people for me to speak to. They knew me. I knew them. I knew their names. I knew their lives.”

I tell Dad this makes sense, to lean on the community you know in a time of need.

Quote

Sometimes Dad would spontaneously book a flight for him and a companion – say, taking my aunt to visit my cousin in Denver – planning to twist his loved one’s arm to travel at the drop of a hat. But that’s the challenge. Rarely could anyone else do that, even if they gave their word. Only Dad knew how to drop everything and fly. That was his superpower. He had wings. The family member, or colleague, or friend he hoped to take along couldn’t always go.

Dad’s lawyer asked one of my uncles: “Do you have any reason to believe that Steven Rothstein made reservations in your name without actually intending to bring you along as his companion?”

“Never,” he said.

Maybe it seems normal to me because that’s how I was socialized, in the vortex realm of a father who treated an airplane like a bus. As a journalist, now, I can read the court documents and understand where – from American’s standpoint – this behavior was kind of absurd. Yet American Airlines agents condoned it for decades. And understanding that the legal terms of the contract and agreement stipulated that fraud meant giving someone else your pass to use, Dad’s quirky and hectic and allegedly “speculative” behavior seems reasonable within how he worked.

Quote

“The example given to me was that Yo-Yo Ma, with whom I flew more than twice and whom I met in several hotel lobbies, flew with his [cello] in the next seat. Under those terms I bought the extra seat.” He thought it would be Mom, my siblings, me, Uncle Shelly, a business associate, or someone he “met at the airport. Anyone I wanted. Anyone. Documents.”

He goes on: “After they told me not to buy an empty seat they knew that I was in a huge depression in the actual MEDICAL SENSE. IT WAS A SERIOUS DEPRESSION. I was incoherent, crying several times daily, drinking liquor which I never did before and if I got in a seat I didn’t want to explain why I was crying to anyone.” So he wanted it empty. He wanted to be alone, just as had always been his booking practice on many airlines, even well before the AAirpass days. He liked his space. He liked access to bringing extra carry-on bags. He liked some privacy. The airplane was his home. It’s where he lived. It’s where he got to do work, or catch up on sleep, or regenerate. Then, once Josh died, it’s where he grieved. He was at home.

 

People buy extra and empty seats all the time. Technically, that’s what he’d done with the companion feature. A permanent extra seat for life – whether another human was in it or not.

“So in my incoherent state,” he writes, “I would book a seat for Dan or Laurie just imagining that they might come. I was making reservations and didn’t know whether I was even going. Here is why. I was up and [alone] in my home office and bored. So I would call the 800 number for the AAirpass desk and talk to the agent about the news or the weather or about Paris or little London. Then, after an hour of nothing they had to hang up. So I would make a reservation and ask them to fax it to me. Then the next day I would take the fax and cancel the reservation. I needed someone to talk to at midnight. The 800 number was open.”

Fucking lunatics. Thank you @Detournement

 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Looks like Todd will have plenty time to post on his return. 

[Steve_Wilkos]

stricter lockdown in Northern England

Stockton-on-Tees master race cruising on through. [emoji41]

[Michael W]

Despite the statistics, the Westminster attitude to schools is totally apparent in the new "lockdown levels" that were issued today. Look at the three levels: 

• Tier one areas - with fewer than 100 cases per 100,000 of population - will need to adhere to national restrictions - like the "rule of six" and social distancing
• Tier two would kick in where cases are above 100 per 100,000. Restrictions for these areas would be similar to those currently in place in large parts of northern England, such as bans on people from different households mixing together

• Tier three areas would have significantly higher rates and would face full lockdowns - excluding schools and essential businesses, like supermarkets, which would stay open

It is absolute madness having the schools open in areas where the prevalence of covid is so severe that everything except essential business must close and people are told to stay at home. It is hugely irresponsible. 

Edited October 1, 2020 by Michael W

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

47 minutes ago, Miguel Sanchez said:

Oh, there is

 

Genuinely one of the most conceited things ive ever heard. 

[Donathan]

SNP MP Margaret Ferrier is CANCELLED!!!

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, Miguel Sanchez said:

Fantastic content, and I've barely started.

I read it when I was having breakfast at work one morning and I was expecting something funny and it turned out to be incredibly tragic (also funny. A man who could only function as first class traveller and could only enjoy interacting with the people who had to serve him. The daughter is obviously trying to put a positive spin on it but knows deep down her Dad was a deeply troubled man.

The Bosnian refugee rinsing him and then disappearing is my favourite bit.

There's definitely a movie in it. 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Bit of a daft move for big Mags Ferrier after making such a big deal over Cummings. Mental behaviour.