Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[renton]

Only pre print, and not peer reviewed yet... but here is the paper on the new strain. Reckons 56% more transmissible. 

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

Some lighthearted conclusions include a higher death toll in 2021 than in 2020 with only maximum restrictions including total closure of all education establishments able to give some degree of confidence of keeping R below 1. This is not due to increased susceptibility in kids (assumed to be 50% of transmission rates as adults in the model) which shows a poor fit to their chosen model, but simply because the increased infectiousness across all age groups makes it far harder to get a grip on, further it notes:

Quote

An accelerated uptake of 2 million people vaccinated per week is predicted to have a much more substantial impact. The most stringent intervention scenario with Tier 4 England-wide and schools closed during January, and 2 million individuals vaccinated per week, is the only scenario we considered which reduces peak ICU burden below the levels seen during the first wave

Great.

Edited December 23, 2020 by renton

[renton]

So, on the basis that we won't be able to keep it out, or suppress this variant, that means we need to be doing 180,000 vaccinations per week....

[madwullie]

1 minute ago, renton said:

So, on the basis that we won't be able to keep it out, or suppress this variant, that means we need to be doing 180,000 vaccinations per week....

Best get jabby  

Edited December 23, 2020 by madwullie

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

So, on the basis that we won't be able to keep it out, or suppress this variant, that means we need to be doing 180,000 vaccinations per week....

So we need to be doing it 24/7 then..? 

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

So we need to be doing it 24/7 then..? 

Assuming the model is accurate, then aye.

Need the AZ/Oxford vaccine approved and pumping out vast quantities of the stuff. Turn the airports into massive drive through vaccination points. Get the army out, get every damned health professional not currently keeping some poor c**t alive involved and turn it over as fast as humanly possible.

Slovakia managed to test 3.6 million people in a weekend.  We should be taking notes.

[s_dog]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

 So, on the basis that we won't be able to keep it out, or suppress this variant, that means we need to be doing 180,000 vaccinations per week....

 

What a pity we're soon going to run out of our first batch of the only vaccine available so far...

 

Although, didn't they say they would only vaccinate the amount of people they had two doses of the vaccine for? So today's news that they've now vaccinated over 500,000 people when they only have 800,000 doses seems a bit odd.

[renton]

13 minutes ago, s_dog said:

 

What a pity we're soon going to run out of our first batch of the only vaccine available so far...

 

Although, didn't they say they would only vaccinate the amount of people they had two doses of the vaccine for? So today's news that they've now vaccinated over 500,000 people when they only have 800,000 doses seems a bit odd.

Freeman reckoned we'd have access to another 172,000 doses by the end of the week.

This article: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-55274833

Reckons we will have 4 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine by the end of the year. So, 356,000 doses for Scotland.

Edited December 23, 2020 by renton

[Rob1885]

Oxford vaccine getting approval on the 28th or 29th will hopefully be a massive shot in the arm long term. Be great news for UK, Europe and USA (to a lesser extent albeit)

[Binos]

3 minutes ago, Rob1885 said:

Oxford vaccine getting approval on the 28th or 29th will hopefully be a massive shot in the arm long term. Be great news for UK, Europe and USA (to a lesser extent albeit)
 

Can they pipe it into the water

[Fullerene]

18 minutes ago, Rob1885 said:

Oxford vaccine getting approval on the 28th or 29th will hopefully be a massive shot in the arm long term. Be great news for UK, Europe and USA (to a lesser extent albeit)
 

Sounds scary.  A teeny weeny shot in the arm would be preferred.  I hate needles.

[ayrmad]

36 minutes ago, renton said:

Assuming the model is accurate, then aye.

Need the AZ/Oxford vaccine approved and pumping out vast quantities of the stuff. Turn the airports into massive drive through vaccination points. Get the army out, get every damned health professional not currently keeping some poor c**t alive involved and turn it over as fast as humanly possible.

Slovakia managed to test 3.6 million people in a weekend.  We should be taking notes.

That's the problem, too many have been taking lots of notes for not very much. 

[welshbairn]

28 minutes ago, renton said:

Freeman reckoned we'd have access to another 172,000 doses by the end of the week.

This article: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-55274833

Reckons we will have 4 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine by the end of the year. So, 356,000 doses for Scotland.

Pfizer originally promised 10 million, AZ have been having production problems in the UK and last I heard have zero ready to ship, so importing from Belgium as well with all that entails. We won't get any Moderna until every pet chihuahua has been done in Palm Beach, J&J's won't approach being ready till February, so I think we're going to have to be patient. Mobilising the entire military won't speed anything up if there's nothing to inject. Still hoping all the most vulnerable will be done by the end of February though, and levels will go back to local conditions well before that, and things will be close to normal by the summer. So there!

[Michael W]

Aren't there a couple million doses of AZ/Oxford that are ready to go once approval is given? 

[tamthebam]

48 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Pfizer originally promised 10 million, AZ have been having production problems in the UK and last I heard have zero ready to ship, so importing from Belgium as well with all that entails. We won't get any Moderna until every pet chihuahua has been done in Palm Beach, J&J's won't approach being ready till February, so I think we're going to have to be patient. Mobilising the entire military won't speed anything up if there's nothing to inject. Still hoping all the most vulnerable will be done by the end of February though, and levels will go back to local conditions well before that, and things will be close to normal by the summer. So there!

"Dear Vlad,

Sorry some of my party said nasty things about you. I shall have them purged by making them stand as Tory candidates in Glasgow. Please send some of that nice Sputnik V vaccine I've heard you clever Russian chaps have made. I mean you managed to successfully get Novichok into Salisbury..cripes! Sorry, naughty Boris's little joke there.

Fraternally yours,

Comrade Boris (a Russian name don't forget!) "

[welshbairn]

47 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Aren't there a couple million doses of AZ/Oxford that are ready to go once approval is given? 

Could well be if they've already been shipped from Belgium and stored safely, no idea what the best by date is on them. 

https://www.ft.com/content/651be7e7-2a4e-410f-8089-b4b7e887f6e8

[hk blues]

17 hours ago, Wee Willie said:

Do you mean like that self-entitled sod Charlie Windsor, his wife & entourage flying from London to Balmoral against the advice of the UK and Scottish governments? Also recently his son and daughter-in-law took a train ride from England to Scotland against Scottish government advice. You would think a video call would have been the order of the day. Are they sods held to a 'higher standard' than the rest of us? Or is there one law for them and one law for the rest of us?

 

They certainly should be, and the fact you are mentioning the incidents months later suggests they are.  

[sparky88]

Family member 'i think Nicola's done a fantastic job'.

Not sure even 'Nicola' would agree 

 

 

 

 

[Bairnardo]

Only pre print, and not peer reviewed yet... but here is the paper on the new strain. Reckons 56% more transmissible. 
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html
Some lighthearted conclusions include a higher death toll in 2021 than in 2020 with only maximum restrictions including total closure of all education establishments able to give some degree of confidence of keeping R below 1. This is not due to increased susceptibility in kids (assumed to be 50% of transmission rates as adults in the model) which shows a poor fit to their chosen model, but simply because the increased infectiousness across all age groups makes it far harder to get a grip on, further it notes:

An accelerated uptake of 2 million people vaccinated per week is predicted to have a much more substantial impact. The most stringent intervention scenario with Tier 4 England-wide and schools closed during January, and 2 million individuals vaccinated per week, is the only scenario we considered which reduces peak ICU burden below the levels seen during the first wave

Great.
So it is quite literally, on that basis which might well inform our actions, covid/full lockdown on one side and vaccine/normality on the other side?

Let's hope next time someone asks about what can be done to speed it up we get a better answer than "we're going as fast as we can".

[WhiteRoseKillie]

They certainly should be, and the fact you are mentioning the incidents months later suggests they are.  

Again, you're drawing equivalence between a lapse in judgment and a willful ignorance of rules* because "we're special".

*..and acting in a way which reduces the effect of those rules.

[strichener]

32 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Again, you're drawing equivalence between a lapse in judgment and a willful ignorance of rules* because "we're special".

*..and acting in a way which reduces the effect of those rules.

Whilst you are ignoring the difference between advice and law.  The "rules" could be renamed "guidance" if there is no legal basis for enforcement.