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Apart from, I think, construction then with education shut we are already quite close to the March lockdown state, give or take supermarket distancing etiquette.

If what we are seeing is a spike due to mixing over Christmas, increased retail use over the busy period leading to Christmas then it should be controllable by current restrictions. 

If you assume the "new" strain becomes dominant though, then I doubt you'll see education back on the 18th. Certainly not secondary or tertiary education anyway. On the basis that the younger you are, the less transmission you get (allowing for 56% more across all age groups) you might get primary and early years care back in person at least some of the time. However, I'd guess we'd need the JCVI list vaccinated before they risk the secondary schools going back.

 

Edited by renton
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Just now, renton said:

Apart from, I think, construction then with education shut we are already quite close to the March lockdown state, give or take supermarket distancing etiquette.

If what we are seeing is a spike due to mixing over Christmas, increased retail use over the busy period leading to Christmas then it should be controllable by current restrictions. 

 

 

It's still too early to see a spike from Christmas. It's from the shops being busy here and it's going mental down South because the pubs and  restaurants were open.

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So, minutes after announcing that 78% of England will be in Tier 4 from tomorrow, with the rest in Tier 3, (and 52,000 new cases today alone).....Gavin Williamson comes on to trumpet that schools will open next Monday......its all about the kids mental health, and them being more at risk of catching it in the community, rather than a classroom of 30 apparently.

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2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

So 92k now vaccinated in Scotland with 8.2% of the UK supply allocated to us which is pro rata on population. AZ starts on Monday with all groups down to over 50s to have had a first shot by the end of Spring.

What are we defining as end of spring, end of May? 

How many people would be over 50 or having underlying conditions?

Given how risk averse the Scottish Government have been and the likes of Sridhar fantasising about "zero covid" that rate of vaccination doesn't fill me with a great deal of hope.

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What are we defining as end of spring, end of May? 
How many people would be over 50 or having underlying conditions?
Given how risk averse the Scottish Government have been and the likes of Sridhar fantasising about "zero covid" that rate of vaccination doesn't fill me with a great deal of hope.
It's all over 50s, conditions or not in that timescale Freeman gave. No numbers or more specific dates just end Spring so yes that technically is end May
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2 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

What are we defining as end of spring, end of May? 

How many people would be over 50 or having underlying conditions?

Given how risk averse the Scottish Government have been and the likes of Sridhar fantasising about "zero covid" that rate of vaccination doesn't fill me with a great deal of hope.

End of Spring will be end of May, but you shouldn't need to get down to the over 50s to eliminate the 99% of deaths and hospitalisations.

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1 minute ago, renton said:

End of Spring will be end of May, but you shouldn't need to get down to the over 50s to eliminate the 99% of deaths and hospitalisations.

I completely agree but that logic went out the window in the summer with the "zero covid" horse shit when we were in single figure case numbers.

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Not looking great just now, case wise. Positivity rate is massive still and now up to 1100 in hospital

Yep it is a real concern but worth noting we had more than that in hospital as recently as mid to late November. Currently 69 in ICU compared to the 220 earlier in the year. I’m fully expecting numbers to keep increasing in the short to medium term but not without hope that we don’t get overwhelmed 🤞
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