Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[bendan]

9 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

Looking at the stats, and when you read about the 'Spanish' flu of 1918, which killed 50-100 million around the world, it's hard not to draw parallels.

Unless there's some significant change, i.e. the virus mutates and becomes less harmful to humans, the warmer weather stops the spread, or we have a big breakthrough with a vaccine, then we really are looking at a similarly catastrophic situation aren't we?

When the virus really takes hold in densely populated countries like Indonesia, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and many African countries, with poorer healthcare and welfare systems to allow people to self-isolate, then the impact will be horrendous.

 

We still don't really have good stats at the moment. Hopefully that will change over the next few weeks. Iceland has a lot of identified cases (proportionately) and is doing community screening, and they have a pretty low death rate. even in the UK, the government thinks 100k plus have it/have had it. If true, the death rate is not horrendously high, but of course, that doesn't mean the NHS can cope, and it doesn't mean lives will not be lost due to a lack of capacity.

Edited March 22, 2020 by bendan

[PauloPerth]

1 minute ago, The Holiday Song said:

Spanish Flu was different because it was worst for younger folk. Something to do with how the immune system reacted to the virus and it was actually worse the better your immune system was.

Yes apparently some people were dead within 12 hours of showing symptoms as well.  It killed 3-4 times the number who were killed in WW1, yet it's rarely mentioned comparatively.

But there's far more people in the world now, with far greater population density so who knows what the full impact will be?

 

 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

Looking at the stats, and when you read about the 'Spanish' flu of 1918, which killed 50-100 million around the world, it's hard not to draw parallels.

Unless there's some significant change, i.e. the virus mutates and becomes less harmful to humans, the warmer weather stops the spread, or we have a big breakthrough with a vaccine, then we really are looking at a similarly catastrophic situation aren't we?

When the virus really takes hold in densely populated countries like Indonesia, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and many African countries, with poorer healthcare and welfare systems to allow people to self-isolate, then the impact will be horrendous.

 

I wouldn't disagree with this, although the one saving grace we have now is there's probably a better chance of finding a vaccine and for the Western countries there are better medical facilities than in 1918 (apart from the UK of course). The stats coming out of London over the next couple of weeks will be interesting, when you think of the volume of people living in such a confined space.

Like you've said though, if this takes hold in the African continent then the mortality rates could be truly horrific.

[DA Baracus]

Japan doing its part with large crowds turning out for the olympic torch relay 

[beefybake]

6 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

I wouldn't disagree with this, although the one saving grace we have now is there's probably a better chance of finding a vaccine and for the Western countries there are better medical facilities than in 1918 (apart from the UK of course). The stats coming out of London over the next couple of weeks will be interesting, when you think of the volume of people living in such a confined space.

Like you've said though, if this takes hold in the African continent then the mortality rates could be truly horrific.

I wonder if there's any one saying to themselves.....  where are all those old isolation hospitals when we need them ?

[welshbairn]

10 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

Like you've said though, if this takes hold in the African continent then the mortality rates could be truly horrific.

Quote

The virus has been slow to reach Africa but has now spread to at least 42 of the continent’s 54 countries.

 

[Bairnardo]

Health update.... Shite sleep due to temp control issues. Woke up today better but not great. Cough subsided a good bit
Thought it best just to soldier on and make the best of it. Some might call that a lack of respect. Not me though.

Of course, some would be right and I would be wrong. I now feel fucking awful again. Cough is back, appetite which was relatively unaffected yesterday is gone. Paracetamol not really touching sore head.

It's a tough wee devil this ah tell ye.

[SlipperyP]

13 minutes ago, DA Baracus said:

Japan doing its part with large crowds turning out for the olympic torch relay 

Japan being one of the first few countries after China to declare cases, they have only got 1,054 to date.  They must be doing something right.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Bairnardo said:

Health update.... Shite sleep due to temp control issues. Woke up today better but not great. Cough subsided a good bit
Thought it best just to soldier on and make the best of it. Some might call that a lack of respect. Not me though.

Of course, some would be right and I would be wrong. I now feel fucking awful again. Cough is back, appetite which was relatively unaffected yesterday is gone. Paracetamol not really touching sore head.

It's a tough wee devil this ah tell ye.

Have you got your thermometer working yet, anally or otherwise?

[PauloPerth]

13 minutes ago, virginton said:

NB: Anyone whose go to reference point right now is a wild pandemic that bumped 100 million people of a far lower global population in about twelve months needs to self-isolate from the Internet as well as society for a few weeks. 

Perhaps BoredomGuy has got space left in his tinfoil-lined bunker for you.

There are 7.7 billion people in the world.

Say, and this is a hugely conservative figure going on current predictions within countries already effected, that 20% of the world population become infected.

Thats 1.54 billion people.

At a current death rate of 2% of those infected. (Bearing in mind many of the people infected so far have been in countries with good healthcare systems, so the rate of fatalities could be far higher elsewhere). But using the 2% death rate figure:

2% of 1.54 billion is over 30 million people.

 

Its hard to get our head round this when we're at 13,000 deaths currently.  Watch a video explanation on exponential growth and you'll understand the jumps will start to get huge if the current trend continues.  It's horrific the way it's headed.

I hope I'm well wrong here, and some factor arises which stops this in its tracks.

 

[DA Baracus]

1 minute ago, SlipperyP said:

Japan being one of the first few countries after China to declare cases, they have only got 1,054 to date.  They must be doing something right.

Aye they seem pretty adamant that they're ok. They also seem pretty adamant that the olympics are still going ahead!

[Cosmic Joe]

28 minutes ago, virginton said:

Erm no, the Spanish flu of 1918 was more lethal by an order of magnitude than this current virus. You clearly didn’t read for the sake of comprehension.

Why are you unable/ unwilling to discuss anything without adopting a sneering/ patronising tone?

[MuckleMoo]

Health update.... Shite sleep due to temp control issues. Woke up today better but not great. Cough subsided a good bit
Thought it best just to soldier on and make the best of it. Some might call that a lack of respect. Not me though.

Of course, some would be right and I would be wrong. I now feel fucking awful again. Cough is back, appetite which was relatively unaffected yesterday is gone. Paracetamol not really touching sore head.

It's a tough wee devil this ah tell ye.

I've seen this reported a few times by people who have had the virus. They get the symptoms, make a very quick recovery over a day or two then it seems to come back with a vengeance.

[ICTJohnboy]

2 minutes ago, Angusfifer said:

Why are you unable/ unwilling to discuss anything without adopting a sneering/ patronising tone?

 

It's because he's a sneering, patronising kind of a person.

[Hedgecutter]

38 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

Looking at the stats, and when you read about the 'Spanish' flu of 1918, which killed 50-100 million around the world, it's hard not to draw parallels.

The Flu that Killed 50 Million that is currently on iPlayer (released in 2018) has an interesting final 3 mins in which they say that a killer flu is our greatest risk and that "a worst case modern pandemic is estimated to be 1%".  

They also say some things about dealing with a (then) future event that make it rather difficult not to watch and go: 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Hedgecutter

[Bairnardo]

I've seen this reported a few times by people who have had the virus. They get the symptoms, make a very quick recovery over a day or two then it seems to come back with a vengeance.

I wouldnt say it was gone this morning but I felt a bit more normal and now Inprobably feel worse than yesterday. Worst bit is the muscle aches. The bottom of my back making me constantly shift about trying to get comfy.

[Binos]

1 hour ago, Savage Henry said:

 

Why? There’s absolutely no reason to. There is a “rational, controlled behaviour” mode which sits somewhere in the middle, and which we are all being expected to practice now.

All that has happened in the last ten days is that certain leisure pursuits have been put on the back burner for a while.

Nobody should be “shitting bricks” at this point.

 

Tell that to folk in Italy

[Melanius Mullarkey]

15 minutes ago, SlipperyP said:

Japan being one of the first few countries after China to declare cases, they have only got 1,054 to date.  They must be doing something right.

Probably chucking all their dogs into rivers.

[jagfox]

7 more dead in Wales and 3 in Scotland. Rest of the UK to be announced later.

5 of those were in Newport, Gwent.

[DA Baracus]

Sturgeon dishing out the telts just now.