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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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6 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

Someone more progressive wasnt going to do a better job in florida given the Cuban vote.

Difficult to see what kind of candidate would be more popular across the board albeit i would like to see someone more progressive.

Someone who actually stood for something maybe?

A candidate who offers a vision and policies to help the marginalised always does better than a candidate who doesn’t. 

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4 minutes ago, Lex said:

If anything Trump is a Boris imitator. Boris been a politician far longer than Trump has after all.

Trump has been a vacuous, stupid-haired smoothbrain for longer than Johnson.

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4 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


If anything Trump is a Boris imitator. Boris been a politician far longer than Trump has after all.

 

It’s only recently that Johnson’s despotic tendencies have started.  When he was mayor he just came across as stupid but relatively normal. I definitely believe he is copying Trump. 

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It’s only recently that Johnson’s despotic tendencies have started.  When he was mayor he just came across as stupid but relatively normal. I definitely believe he is copying Trump. 


Sure Trump has said Boris’ Brexit victory in May 2016 made him believe he could do it in November of that year. And he did.
Either way this goes Trump has certainly done far better than the majority of the experts had predicted.
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Johnson is a construct of the people that advise/control him ans will do whatever they think will win him votes. His mayoralty masked a lot of his flaws, given he had very little actual power and his decision making capabilities were limited. That said, he did manage to dither of the tube replacement program, keeping 60s tube trains running on some lines for another 10-20 years. A precursor, you may say. 

Trump, on the other hand, is not a politician and is used to doing whatever the hell he likes. He's got away with it his whole life and has kept at it throughout his presidency. In some cases, what he's done has been outright dangerous. 

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8 minutes ago, G51 said:

Someone who actually stood for something maybe?

A candidate who offers a vision and policies to help the marginalised always does better than a candidate who doesn’t. 

That's so naive. Most Americans - most people - vote for themselves, not for marginalised people. 

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This is going entirely as I predicted. Amazed at the amount of folk on here who were predicting a comfortable Biden win.

Same here. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that some people vote for the party, not the leader per se.
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4 minutes ago, jamamafegan said:

This is going entirely as I predicted.

Amazed at the amount of folk on here who were predicting a comfortable Biden win.

Aye ok Captain Hindsight. You said 'I fear the worst', Nostradamus you are not.

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Biden still just on course in Georgia. Half an hour ago he needed 63% of the remaining votes, that's now down to 62.6%. Most of the votes come from counties around Atlanta he's currently leading with 72% to 85%.

Georgia would be a huge win, because he should be able to get it today and without much scope for challenge. If he could squeak home in Wisconsin the scope for legal challenge is very poor.

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1 minute ago, RiG said:

I can think of at least one other person who studied abroad in Italy who had a worse time than she did.

Yep, that geeky guy from class who she friend zoned on the first day amirite!

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5 minutes ago, GordonS said:

That's so naive. Most Americans - most people - vote for themselves, not for marginalised people. 

Most Americans are marginalised, so they would be voting for themselves.

Look at how popular Bernies policies are in America every time they’re polled. This is a no brainier. Stop fielding shit candidates with shit policies and you’ll stop getting shit results. Twice now America has tried the centrist route and twice its blown up in their face (even if Biden wins, he’s horrendously underperformed)

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