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The US Presidential election prediction thread


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1 minute ago, Detournement said:

The age splits are very different compared to the UK

image.thumb.png.dfc990372313a13cbdecdefa732cc056.png

 

1 minute ago, MixuFruit said:

unconditional love for being as interested in a lovely story about polar bears btw

"First polar bear born in Britain for 25 years on menu at the Ivy."

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1 minute ago, EdinburghPar1975 said:

I heard this morning that the reason Nebraska has that system in place where they can have split seats was that they felt unrepresented by either party so had the split seating as they knew it could sway elections....might well come through.

I really don't understand* why the EC seats aren't just split by the proportion of votes cast for each party

 

*...when i say i don't understand, i do but it seems mental that they can't/ won't change it for a more democratic/ representative system

If the USA changes to a more democratic / representative system there's a very real chance the Republicans would never get into power again. That's why they won't change it.

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If the USA changes to a more democratic / representative system there's a very real chance the Republicans would never get into power again. That's why they won't change it.
Indeed. The Republican strategy will now always be to make it as hard as possible to vote and for those votes to be represented as undemocratically as possible.
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Just now, Gaz said:

If the USA changes to a more democratic / representative system there's a very real chance the Republicans would never get into power again. That's why they won't change it.

Texas will flip for demographic change reasons within another couple of election cycles to be like California. After that the Republicans can't run a candidate like Trump again and have any hope of winning, so he is probably the last gasp of reactionary dog whistle American racism at the federal level if the mail-ins in the battleground state unfold as expected from here.

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1 minute ago, Gaz said:

If the USA changes to a more democratic / representative system there's a very real chance the Republicans would never get into power again. That's why they won't change it.

The likes of New York and California would have all the sway compared to the flyover States which would piss off quite a few Dems as well as the GOP.

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6 minutes ago, EdinburghPar1975 said:

I really don't understand* why the EC seats aren't just split by the proportion of votes cast for each party

Fifteen states and DC have signed the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Between them they have 196 electoral votes. Their agreement is that when states with a combined number of electoral college votes over 269 have signed up they will pool all their electoral votes and award them by PR to the votes cast in their combined states.

Republicans are never signing up to it so it's unlikely to happen.

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15 minutes ago, Gaz said:

If the USA changes to a more democratic / representative system there's a very real chance the Republicans would never get into power again. That's why they won't change it.

Given that stalemate inertia is a boon for the US capitalist interests both parties serve I suspect they would find a way to keep it close.

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1 minute ago, MixuFruit said:

That would've been some nice cash, not as nice as Trump 2016 but there we go. I should make a mental note now about how skittish the betting market is for this next time and do some live bets like welshbairn says.

Only really works in such a divisive election/close as this election though. Not complaining, managed to get a few bets on Biden. Looking like a few hundred quid in my pocket. 

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