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The US Presidential election prediction thread


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16 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Looking at the on-screen figures for Pennsylvania there are still 1.75m votes to count.  Pretty sure the guy on CNN saying just 1m.

I think he was talking purely postal votes. I think the balance is absentee ballots or something like that. 

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Trump has actually done pretty well, despite the impending loss. He’s currently got 4 million more votes than 2016 with plenty still to come in, and appears up amongst most categories, except incredibly, white men.

If it weren’t for the huge boom of mail-in votes I think he would’ve won again. There’ll be a lot of votes in there that just wouldn’t have been cast otherwise. It’s been a problem for Democrats for years, Republicans show up and their voters don’t.

A hollow victory, of course, a bit like Corbyn in 2017. Losing better than expected is still losing.

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1 minute ago, Have some faith in Magic said:

The boy Phil on the CNN magic wall is putting a shift in. 

Poor guy will pass out for a week after this! I'm amazed he's still as clear in what he's outlining given how long he's been there.

 

On another point the only bet i put on was for BIden to get between 65-69.999m votes...might be tight but still  chance of getting a ay out

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Trump would have romped this without Covid!

Even with his shambolic response to the crisis, the biggest concern was 'the economy, stupid'!

There is no doubt that he held all the economic cards, with high employment and irresponsible tax cuts.

Americans were feeling good.  Hell he almost pulled it off, despite Covid and being an absolute c**t!

Folk have an optimism bias that makes them think 'bad stuff' affects others, not them.  

250k dead is bad, but still won't have touched the vast majority of people  (and if they were impacted, it was likely be to an older relative/friend).

Most would know people who got it and recovered, which would again feed that optimism bias.

I'm glad though that it looks like his mean politics have lost.  

Yours, fingers crossed

aDONis

 

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Poor guy will pass out for a week after this! I'm amazed he's still as clear in what he's outlining given how long he's been there.
 
On another point the only bet i put on was for BIden to get between 65-69.999m votes...might be tight but still  chance of getting a ay out
Hmm....Biden already has 69.5M votes
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3 minutes ago, milhouse said:

Not sure why everyone getting wound up about Trump's "frankly we did win" rhetoric. Isn't claiming your doing well/about to win/feeling confident pretty standard patter in elections in the US, and elsewhere?

"I think I'm going to win" is pretty different from "I did win, and if the other guy gets the nod it was through massive fraud"

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2 minutes ago, milhouse said:

Not sure why everyone getting wound up about Trump's "frankly we did win" rhetoric. Isn't claiming your doing well/about to win/feeling confident pretty standard patter in elections in the US, and elsewhere?

Yes and Biden did this.

Trump coming out and saying he's feeling good, confident etc would have been a non-story.....but he didn't. He declared the poll a fraud, and that places like Michigan and Pennsylvania were insurmountable and advocated that to that end, all vote counting should now stop and declared that he had won.

To the point where his own VP hastily followed his speech to try and smooth things over.

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