The US Presidential election prediction thread

[Jacksgranda]

16 hours ago, RiG said:

"This is the most rigged election ever! But also it was the most secure election ever! Apart from the rigging!"

 

"I have done a wonderful job with Covid-19. No deaths anywhere. Except where there have been thousands of deaths. Due to Democrats."

[AyrshireTon]

11 hours ago, Tony Ferrino said:

Hair? He’s aged.

Melania has taken all of the makeup with her.

[Jacksgranda]

16 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Good point.  However I have no idea how all embracing a Presidential pardon is, I’m sure it would exercise the mind of totally non-partisan SC.

ETA had Nixon been charged, let alone convicted, when he was pardoned?

He was a wee bit shifty looking, so that was good enough, imho.

[GordonS]

12 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Paddy Power still aren't paying out on Georgia, the c***s. North Carolina sadly isn't just a projection, all votes in and counted.

Betfair not paying out on Georgia either, but more annoyingly, Sportsnation.bet are taking a Trumpian approach to the Presidency. p***ks owe me money.

11 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

So who was closest with their prediction?
 

I did alright on the states, I was only wrong about Georgia and Arizona and both of those were very close. But I underestimated Biden's share by 0.9 (so far) and underestimate Trump by 2.3. I shouldn't have expected so many votes for third parties in such an important, polarised election.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

3 hours ago, GordonS said:

Betfair not paying out on Georgia either, but more annoyingly, Sportsnation.bet are taking a Trumpian approach to the Presidency. p***ks owe me money.

I did alright on the states, I was only wrong about Georgia and Arizona and both of those were very close. But I underestimated Biden's share by 0.9 (so far) and underestimate Trump by 2.3. I shouldn't have expected so many votes for third parties in such an important, polarised election.

I predicted share of vote as 52-45 in favour of Biden.  Biden is curently on 50.8% but predicted to get 51-52% of the popular vote omce they are all counted.  Trump is currently on 47.8% but this is likely to drop as the final votes are tallied.  Looks like my prediction for Biden is correct but out by around 1.5%-2% for Trump - possibly due to a poorer performance but other candidates.

I had the elctoral college as 334-204.  Got Florida wrong (thanks to Miami-Dade and other Cuban-American areas).  Thought Biden would take NC and Trump Georgia.  I also  missed the electoral College vote Biden picked up in Nebraska.

Real Clear Politics final toss-up map was not far out - they got Georgia and Florida the wrong way round and also missed the Nebraska Electroral College Vote.

Edited November 14, 2020 by DeeTillEhDeh

[Granny Danger]

Interesting, and genuinely puzzling, gender and racial breakdown of shifts on voting in this election.

To precis, white men moved towards Biden most ethnic minorities moved towards Trump.

I will never understand the USA.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/14/joe-biden-trump-black-latino-republicans

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Interesting, and genuinely puzzling, gender and racial breakdown of shifts on voting in this election.
To precis, white men moved towards Biden most ethnic minorities moved towards Trump.
I will never understand the USA.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/14/joe-biden-trump-black-latino-republicans

Because you can't lump people together because of their gender or race.

There are a lot of complex factors at work - income, education and the media itself.

The Biden is a "socialist" bullshit would have lost him votes amongst certain groups not just Cubans.

[Bully Wee Villa]

The "Socialist" abuse only seems to have worked in areas where Dems were too fucking lazy to do any campaigning or social media to explain their positions. The "Defund the Police" chat, likewise.

[welshbairn]

Trump's "What have the Dems ever done for you?" chat to black voters might have got through to a few, but we're only talking low 90's shifting to high 80's. The Dems certainly have to get away from taking minority votes for granted, doesn't seem zoning in on suburban white housewives paid off.

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Because you can't lump people together because of their gender or race.

There are a lot of complex factors at work - income, education and the media itself.

The Biden is a "socialist" bullshit would have lost him votes amongst certain groups not just Cubans.

I think your first sentence is self evident.  Now try and answer this one.

Why was there an increase in black males voting for the most overtly racist President of modern times?
 

[ICTChris]

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

 

[BFTD]

It would be a remarkable part of Trump's legacy if Republicans actually start disrespecting soldiers for being captured/killed.

I mean, it would fit more with the 'win at all costs/second place is for losers' American mentality, but still.

[Bully Wee Villa]

I find it impossible to believe there could be anything good happen because of Donald Trump, but if he has somehow reduced America's insane reverence for the military then that will be one example.

I very much doubt it though, they fucking love the army. It's like the United States of Sevco over there.

Edited November 15, 2020 by Bully Wee Villa

[The_Kincardine]

7 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

It's like the United States of Sevco over there.

You say that as if it's a problem.  Great to see we Scots celebrating our Scottish armed forces who put Scotland on the map  by dint of Union 

 

[Baxter Parp]

3 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

You say that as if it's a problem.  Great to see we Scots celebrating our Scottish armed forces who put Scotland on the map  by dint of Union 

 

Obvious troll is obvious.

[Bully Wee Villa]

He's a scamp, so he is.

[( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)]

5 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

You say that as if it's a problem.  Great to see we Scots celebrating our Scottish armed forces who put Scotland on the map  by dint of Union 

 

If The Rangers cared about our armed forces so much, why don't they wear green one season as a sign of respect? They'll gladly wear orange, but not green. 

[Granny Danger]

8 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

I find it impossible to believe there could be anything good happen because of Donald Trump, but if he has somehow reduced America's insane reverence for the military then that will be one example.

I very much doubt it though, they fucking love the army. It's like the United States of Sevco over there.

Trump’s comments on the military expose how fanatical his supports are and their willingness and ability to indulge in doublethink.  Any other President or candidate making these disparaging remarks about military personnel would be lambasted; Trump is revered by his base whilst they meanwhile retain their devotion for the institutions he denigrates.

Despite Trump’s loss I think politics in the USA could be fucked up for some time to come.

 

[dirty dingus]

Trump losing his shit again as  his million maga march was a flop with 10-15k turning up and the proud boys and assorted right wing misfits were acting like tools at the behest of Trump

 

@realDonaldTrump

·7h

 

ANTIFA SCUM ran for the hills today when they tried attacking the people at the Trump Rally, because those people aggressively fought back. Antifa waited until tonight, when 99% were gone, to attack innocent #MAGA People. DC Police, get going — do your job and don’t hold back!!!

 

@realDonaldTrump

·7h

 

Radical Left ANTIFA SCUM was easily rebuffed today by the big D.C. MAGA Rally crowd, only to return at night, after 99% of the crowd had left, to assault elderly people and families. Police got there, but late. Mayor is not doing her job!