Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

48 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

As quoted in CAPS on your post above, I reckon probably E Lothian and - just maybe- Dumbarton. 

You also hinted towards a bigger tory vote in Dumbarton, in all seriousness i get that it includes Helensburgh, but have you ever actually been to Dumbarton? The day Dumbarton goes tory is the day we just gie up. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I have no faith in him tbh. I know a lot of people here obviously don't like Davidson but she is levels above him imo. 
I must say the talent in the current Scottish Conservative party is pretty diabolical, I can't think of anyone that bucks the trend at the moment. I'm actually liking the look of Sarwar so far but I think Scottish Labour are at such a low point also that I can't see a quick way out for them either way. 

My mum is Tory and thinks he is awful - says that if he keeps pushing on Salmond-Sturgeon he will lose votes

[DeeTillEhDeh]

As quoted in CAPS on your post above, I reckon probably E Lothian and - just maybe- Dumbarton. 

Edinburgh Central is a really good chance as well.

[alta-pete]

1 minute ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

2 hours ago, Stormzy said:

I have no faith in him tbh. I know a lot of people here obviously don't like Davidson but she is levels above him imo. 
I must say the talent in the current Scottish Conservative party is pretty diabolical, I can't think of anyone that bucks the trend at the moment. I'm actually liking the look of Sarwar so far but I think Scottish Labour are at such a low point also that I can't see a quick way out for them either way. 

My mom is Tory and thinks he is awful - says that if he keeps pushing on Salmond-Sturgeon he will lose votes

 

[git-intae-thum]

2 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Why don't you tell us, brother?

Possibly because there is an increasing awareness that in most areas of the country both votes SNP is for the bin.

It's pretty obvious the SNP leadership (and an obvious section of their supporters on this forum)  would rather work with the Greens than Alba. 

I can also see why the Greens are worried by all this btw. They rely on that 2nd indy vote. They don't want to end up, unfairly, being the collateral damage.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 

Fucking autocorrect

[alta-pete]

The (Scottish) establishment is definitely firmly based in the SNP / Green vote. Suits them both. Of course it does. 

Last thing either of them want is a disruptive party to offer an option to their ‘nose-held’ votes.  And Scottish politics will actually be all the better for it, having a pro-independence non-governmental party involved in the debate. 

[Donathan]

In terms of SNP losses, I’d be looking at Moray, Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross and Banffshire & Buchan Coast as potential target seats for the opposition parties.

[mizfit]

In terms of SNP losses, I’d be looking at Moray, Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross and Banffshire & Buchan Coast as potential target seats for the opposition parties.

I’m not so sure about Moray.
I was up visiting the other half’s family last summer. All conservative voters.

Her cousins have no faith in Ross and think he’s an awful MP.

[SandyCromarty]

12 hours ago, The Golden God said:

Bold strategy from Douglas here. “There would be another politician who has been a million times better than me forever, especially this week” is certainly high risk.

Puppets?

Ross and his Scottish tories are controlled from westminster

Is he for real, from the 2017 GE to the 2019 GE, two years, this clown saw his majority reduced from 4159 to 513.

That to me suggests a loser, and he is the tory leader?

I'm sure they could have picked better.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Puppets?
Ross and his Scottish tories are controlled from westminster
Is he for real, from the 2017 GE to the 2019 GE, two years, this clown saw his majority reduced from 4159 to 513.
That to me suggests a loser, and he is the tory leader?
I'm sure they could have picked better.

It was either him or corpulent, bigoted oaf Michelle Ballantyne. Tremendous stuff [emoji23]

[renton]

10 hours ago, Donathan said:

Yeah Edinburgh Central isn’t really a Tory area, it’s just that the old SNP MSP who was popular retired in 2016 and the Tories stood Davidson who was popular locally and throughout Scotland. If the hapless Cherry can win the WM seat then I expect an easy SNP gain.

The Greens also ran in the constituency, with Alison Johnstone picking up a respectable 4,500 votes. Davidson's majority was 610.

Edited March 29, 2021 by renton

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

1 hour ago, renton said:

The Greens also ran in the constituency, with Alison Johnstone picking up a respectable 4,500 votes. Davidson's majority was 610.

One of the reasons Davidson got out was that she knew she'd lose the seat to Angus Robertson. 

Personally though, I think that people are over-estimating potential SNP gains in May. Parties usually take seats when there's either a unique local issue, or they have a real national momentum. I don't think the first applies in any SNP target seats, and the SNP most certainly don't have a great deal of momentum at this momen in time. 

I can see them taking Edinburgh Central because of their candidate. Possibly also East Lothian. 

In a pint half empty moment, I'm struggling to see where they'll pick up more seats. Jackie Baillie is a high profile figure and I can't see her losing Dumbarton, especially with a slight Sarwar bounce helping her. 

I still predict that very few seats will change hands in any direction come May. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

47 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

One of the reasons Davidson got out was that she knew she'd lose the seat to Angus Robertson. 

Personally though, I think that people are over-estimating potential SNP gains in May. Parties usually take seats when there's either a unique local issue, or they have a real national momentum. I don't think the first applies in any SNP target seats, and the SNP most certainly don't have a great deal of momentum at this momen in time. 

I can see them taking Edinburgh Central because of their candidate. Possibly also East Lothian. 

In a pint half empty moment, I'm struggling to see where they'll pick up more seats. Jackie Baillie is a high profile figure and I can't see her losing Dumbarton, especially with a slight Sarwar bounce helping her. 

I still predict that very few seats will change hands in any direction come May. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jackie Baillie has never ever been taken to task over the fact that she was the person who made the decision to close A&E services at the Vale of Leven Hospital, meaning people from Arrochar have to make a 1 hour trip to Paisley in an emergency as one example. 
She jumped on the ‘save the vale’ bandwagon and clung to her seat last time. Granted the SNP candidate appears to be yet another careerist campaigning on what appears to be a ‘dumbarton voted yes’ ticket, which I think is a bit of a missed opportunity. This is the only thing which may save Baillie, she has quite strong backing from the soft tories in Helensburgh and has been very pro trident and faslane which wins her votes. Had the SNP boy campaigned solely focused on local issues id have predicted an absolute massacre for labour. 

[mizfit]

Miles Briggs and Braden Davey on Twitter telling people the SNP Have been in power for 14 years and could’ve done what they’re now offering to in their manifesto.

I presume they also don’t understand that the last 12 months have highlighted issues such as digital poverty and benefits not going as far as they should to support the most vulnerable.

[Blue Brazil Forever]

Wee Eck on his appearance (under oath) at the Parliamentary Committee enquiry emphasized the failures of the present leadership at Party,  Scottish Government, Civil Service and Crown Office  levels..Cannae wait to see what he proposes to do about it in the Alba manifesto.

 

[GordonS]

 

16 hours ago, Glen Sannox said:

You are spot on Stormzy. We really are up against it, what with all that talent the SNP have at their disposal.

Hannah Bardell is fantastic. If the best you can manage is a picture of her in a Scotland women's team top promoting the Scotland women's team making the World Cup finals for the first time, I think that's pretty sad. 

Edited March 29, 2021 by GordonS

[GordonS]

6 minutes ago, Blue Brazil Forever said:

Wee Eck on his appearance (under oath) at the Parliamentary Committee enquiry emphasized the failures of the present leadership at Party,  Scottish Government, Civil Service and Crown Office  levels..Cannae wait to see what he proposes to do about it in the Alba manifesto.

 

Aye, the Crown Office must be rubbish if they couldn't get a conviction against him.

[GordonS]

On 28/03/2021 at 16:28, Trogdor said:

I'm going to ask some questions if I may...

Has there been any indicative analysis on turnout? This is a weird election not least due to Covid-19. Who stands to benefit from higher or lower turnout? 

Also, when will we get some meaningful polls? All the ones getting tweeted just now have fieldwork from a couple of weeks back. The old adage that a week is a long time in politics is especially true just now.

I see a lot of information on Salmond being viewed negatively (with <20% approval) but what was he at his pomp? He was never individually as popular as Nicola and was very much marmite. How far has his favourably fallen?

Turnout - Returning Officers are planning for higher turnout because of the very increased number of postal voters. This usually favours Tories/ Lib Dems over the others. But it's impossible to make confident guesses.

Fieldwork for the most recent poll was 16-19 March so not that bad. But you're right, and the fieldwork for Scottish polls can often be stretched over a longer spell as they're made up of the Scottish portion of the pollster's daily UK polling.

I would be very wary of the Alba Party figures in the polls when we finally get some covering them, at least for a while and probably all the way through. There's no way of knowing whether they're showing up in a representative way in the samples. They're likely not the same demographic as SNP generally, I would expect them to be older, more male and more socially conservative, so sampling for them will be difficult without a reference point. I would expect they may be slightly over-sampled but it's pure guesswork at this point. They also may benefit from early publicity - IIRC Change UK started with at or close to double digits before falling away to nothing. I doubt that will happen with Alba but their initially polling could be dramatically out either way.

As for Salmond polling, I saw one that said 50% believe he is lying about his recollection of events with Sturgeon, with 10% believing him. A lot of don't knows in there. 

[Glen Sannox]

2 hours ago, GordonS said:

 

Hannah Bardell is fantastic. If the best you can manage is a picture of her in a Scotland women's team top promoting the Scotland women's team making the World Cup finals for the first time, I think that's pretty sad. 

Hannah Bardell is fantastic!!! She’s nearly as embarrassing as women’s football.