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Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021


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Guest Bob Mahelp
8 minutes ago, the snudge said:

Is this Derek Stillie ex footballer on the list vote for the Tories?

Screenshot_20210401-134006_Chrome.jpg

It is, yes. Apparently he's now a lawyer.

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I see there's three pro-independence candidates standing in Inverness & Nairn this time (there was only one last time).  I can't imagine Restore Scotland will win many votes, but I could see the Greens getting a decent number - there always seemed to be a lot of people who held their nose and voted for Fergus Ewing and considering the chances of him losing the seat are essentially zero, I could see the Greens picking up a couple of thousand (especially considering Ewing isn't even beloved by many in his own party).  They got just over 1,700 at the last general election as I recall and that was against a far more popular SNP candidate.

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I see the Tory line today, faithfully carried front page on the Express is that the vaccine rollout shows the strength of the Union. We'd have been tethered to the lacklustre EU rollout in an independent Scotland said Dross on the news. 

Really? I'm confused. I must have imagined this doozy.....

 

DpQ2rRdWwAA_puf.jpg

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5 hours ago, Highland Capital said:

I know the SNP will always say 'Both Votes SNP' regardless of the scenario and I know they have a good chance in the Highlands and Islands of winning a list again this time but I see one candidate has attempted to emphasise the importance of a H&I SNP list vote by saying that if the SNP had won three H&I seats in 2016 as they did in 2011, the SNP would've won a majority at the last election...but surely that would've been nye-on impossible?  

The threshold for getting a second seat would be hard enough for the SNP this time, let alone a third surely?  I don't have the numbers at hand, but I'm pretty sure the Greens were closer to getting a second seat up here than the SNP were.

The Greens needed another 8K in their addition to their 14K for a second, SNP needed another 10K in addition to their existing 81K.

While the SNP H&I vote in 2016 was down 7% on 2011, in raw numbers it was only 4K smaller than 2011 and the constituency split was exactly the same. The reason the list went from 3 SNP, 2 Labour, 2 Tory to 4 Tory, 1 Lab, 1 SNP 1 Green was that the Tory list vote doubled with an increased turnout. Remains to be seen if they're as motivated this time.

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8 hours ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

Aye, he stood as a candidate for them in the last general election as well.

He was also David Goodwillie’s lawyer in the civil rape case, apparently.

Yet another big L on his record. 

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2 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Quality work by Philip Sim as usual.

One I would add to his list is Glasgow Kelvin. Patrick Harvie came second here for the Greens last time, and the sitting SNP MSP, Sandra White, is retiring. It's extremely unlikely the seat is in play this time but if the Greens closed the gap sufficiently it could be competitive in future.

I'd also watch the Lothian list. If the SNP pick up one or two of the constituencies they don't currently hold then it will put more pressure at the bottom of the list, potentially squeezing someone one. The SNP could win half the seats in the region off well under half the votes, so the bar for getting that last regional seat would rise.

Screenshot 2021-04-03 at 12.08.56.png

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21 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Quality work by Philip Sim as usual.

It is good work, but my pedantry kicked in where the North East List was added in (it wasn't like the focus was on the 7th List seat)

Which meant rather than 10 seats to watch its actually 16 seats to watch. I'll let him off though.

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2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Scotsman and Herald websites giving prominence to Alba way beyond what is merited.

I’m sure they’re doing so because they both support the idea of a ‘super majority’.

 

Who decides what level of coverage is merited for a new party and on what basis? 

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Guest Bob Mahelp
30 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Scotsman and Herald websites giving prominence to Alba way beyond what is merited.

I’m sure they’re doing so because they both support the idea of a ‘super majority’.

 

Love him or hate him, I suppose that Alex Salmond is possibly THE biggest beast of Scottish politics. 

No pun intended. 

He's box office, and he knows it. He'll get a huge amount of coverage, whatever he comes out with. 

 

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1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

Scotsman and Herald websites giving prominence to Alba way beyond what is merited.

I’m sure they’re doing so because they both support the idea of a ‘super majority’.

 

Like I said at the start, political journalists are infants who are only interested in gossip and games. Dangle something shiny in front of them and they'll ignore everything else going on.

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