Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Hillonearth]

1 minute ago, TommyDickFingers said:

They will get surplus MIG 29'S  from the EU.

Take a stab at who already flys Mig 29's 

Just a case of painting blue and yellow over this, and Bob's your uncle..

 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

 

 

I did say the threat of.

Ultimately it's up to the Ukrainians themselves if they want to lay down arms - I perfectly understand, given Putin's previous, why they would be reluctant to do so until a brokered ceasefire and deal is actually achieved.

I am also under no illusions that any deal will give concessions to Russia - that's Realpolitik. But to be in a position to negotiate the Ukrainians clearly need something to show Putin that they won't be pushovers in any deal.

I still think there will be some face-saving for Putin where both he and Zekensky can claim victory.

 

Yeah I agree with all of this tbh. My hope is that between the pretty incredible Ukrainian resistance, the protests at home still going strong and the economy potentially tanking they may already have shown Putin it's not worth continuing.

I thought the 4500 number of casualties going around was likely a massive exaggeration but Russian state media I think confirmed it earlier, alongside eyebrow raising numbers of helis, aircraft and tanks out of action. The logistical issues they're having as well, combined with how efficient the invasion looked that first day suggest to me they thought this would be over by now. 

[San Starko Rover]

1 hour ago, Zetterlund said:

Is there nobody left still sane enough to say hang on a minute, maybe we should try to deescalate this? It's just a constant pile-on of everyone promising to pump more and more weapons into the conflict and adding more sanctions & bans.

What's the desired result of firing more weapons in? Without them, Ukraine may well lose and tens of thousands will be dead on both sides. With them, Ukraine might 'win' but it will drag on longer with even more dead. 

If the sociopaths who run governments and political institutions manage to engineer a situation where we're on the cusp of lobbing nukes across the globe at each other, then us normal folks need to kick the doors in and physically remove them.

No one is lobbing nukes at anyone unless they’re totally insane as that’s game over for everyone. There’s a reason no one has used one in anger since WWII because it’d be the act of an utter lunatic and if Putin is generally that insane everyone is fucked regardless.
 

Your idea of deescalation seems to be give Putin exactly what he wants and f**k the Ukrainians.  Ukraine aren’t the aggressor here they’ve done nothing to justify a Russian invasion of their sovereignty so they have every right to defend themselves, without aid from other nations they’d be lambs to the slaughter for the Red Army. 
 

So we do nothing and Putin slaughters a few thousand Ukrainians, then what? Will we let him attack Georgia, Finland, Sweden, the Baltic states at what point do we take action and risk upsetting him? 
 

Pumping weapons in is 100% the answer as it gives the Ukraine a fighting chance of repelling the Russians, will more people die? Almost certainly but only a heavy casualty of Russians will cause them to withdraw and reconsider attacking anyone else. I’m damn sure if it was us under attack by a vastly superior foreign power we’d want the other nations to give us weapons to defend ourselves and impose sanctions on them or perhaps we’d just surrender as more people would die if we escalated it.   

[Lex]

To paraphrase Von Bismarck, the only politics Putin understands is the politics of blood and iron.
To paraphrase Limmy, he’s not backing down, he’s doubling down.
Fight him or watch. That’s the two options.

[bennett]

8 minutes ago, renton said:

Yeah, but some of the Eastern NATO states will still have inventory of the same ex-Soviet aircraft that Ukraine has...

 

11 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

Aye but the Poles and Bulgarians have Mig29s. I'm sure they've thought of this stuff. 

 

Basically obsolete stuff, especially if coming up against the newer Russian fighters. 

 

Surely the western countries operating a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more useful. 

 

 

 

[Bully Wee Villa]

36 minutes ago, Ray Patterson said:

Here's Zelensky playing Paddington Bear in the Ukrainian version of the film:
 

 

Thank f**k it wasn't Winnie the Pooh or they'd have China invading, too.

[renton]

Just now, bennett said:

 

 

Basically obsolete stuff, especially if coming up against the newer Russian fighters. 

 

Surely the western countries operating a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more useful. 

 

 

 

There are degrees of obsolete, and a Western No fly zone is a really quick way of starting WW3.

[tarapoa]

A lot of the early wisdom was that Kyiv would be Russian-controlled by today (Sunday).

Maybe just delaying the inevitable ahead of the ante being upped in terms of the level of weapons deployed, but the fact it isn’t is a good effort so far from the Ukrainians in defending their capital and other major cities.

[Lex]

A lot of the early wisdom was that Kyiv would be Russian-controlled by today (Sunday).

Maybe just delaying the inevitable ahead of the ante being upped in terms of the level of weapons deployed, but the fact it isn’t is a good effort so far from the Ukrainians in defending their capital and other major cities.

Yeah great effort, and I don’t think Putin really expected it, so he opened with the left jab expecting a knock out.
Never got it, right hook coming next week.

[Lurkst]

2 hours ago, Snafu said:

 

Pete Solowka! I'd forgotten all about him.

[Thistle_do_nicely]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

There are degrees of obsolete, and a Western No fly zone is a really quick way of starting WW3.

Yeah. I think the old mg42 is still (or was until recently) in service in some militaries. Might be old tech, maybe with a few bits tinkered with over the years, but i wouldnt fancy having to run towards one. An older jet fighter with a competent pilot is better than nothing.

[Wee-Bey]

Given the slightly clownshoes Red Army performance so far, I think we can stop with the Cold War fantasys of Putin rolling through the Baltics and Poland on his way to Berlin.

[San Starko Rover]

2 minutes ago, tarapoa said:

A lot of the early wisdom was that Kyiv would be Russian-controlled by today (Sunday).

Maybe just delaying the inevitable ahead of the ante being upped in terms of the level of weapons deployed, but the fact it isn’t is a good effort so far from the Ukrainians in defending their capital and other major cities.

I think the Russians have seriously overestimated the number of Pro Russians in the Ukraine and underestimated the fight the Ukraine are giving them. They seem to think the government would run and the Army just lay down their arms. They could well have bitten off more than they can chew here as street to street fighting will see them suffer heavy loses with no guarantee they can achieve their aim. Even if they do they’re faced with a hostile population to police of 30+ milllion who are anti Russian. 

[williemillersmoustache]

13 minutes ago, bennett said:

 

Basically obsolete stuff, especially if coming up against the newer Russian fighters. 

We don't know what the Russians have had in the air and regardless the Mig 29 is a perfectly respectable aircraft, designed to go up against and in some ways superior to the F15. Particularly in the hands of experienced pilots, which one assumes the Ukrainian air force has.

Quote

Surely the western countries operating a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more useful. 

No, putting NATO forces in direct confrontation with Russians would be fucking mental. Exactly the sort of escalation we should avoid like the plague. Much better to just subtly and not so subtly equip and rearm the Ukrainians and help them attrition the Russians into seeking a ceasefire, de-escalation. Which, f**k my hat and call me Susan, is what they are doing.

Edited February 27, 2022 by williemillersmoustache

[bennett]

7 minutes ago, renton said:

There are degrees of obsolete, and a Western No fly zone is a really quick way of starting WW3.

Or stopping it by showing that the west are serious about halting Putins advance.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I think the Russians have seriously overestimated the number of Pro Russians in the Ukraine and underestimated the fight the Ukraine are giving them. They seem to think the government would run and the Army just lay down their arms. They could well have bitten off more than they can chew here as street to street fighting will see them suffer heavy loses with no guarantee they can achieve their aim. Even if they do they’re faced with a hostile population to police of 30+ milllion who are anti Russian. 

The fact that the Russians are even considering talks shows how wrong they've got it so far and that they may be looking to a face-saving exit strategy

[San Starko Rover]

1 minute ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

 

 

The fact that the Russians are even considering talks shows how wrong they've got it so far and that they may be looking to a face-saving exit strategy
 

 

Let’s hope so but how realistic will Putin’s demands be? We’ve seen his demands before the invasion which were totally ridiculous on other nations foreign and defence policies. I’m not really sure how he can come out of this with any win. Continue to invade - heavy losses and a hostile country to police while being isolated internationally, pull out - loss of face and serious damage to Russia’s future negotiations against NATO, EU etc.  

[Hillonearth]

21 minutes ago, bennett said:

 

 

Basically obsolete stuff, especially if coming up against the newer Russian fighters. 

 

Surely the western countries operating a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more useful.

Thing is, the Russians still have more MiG29s on inventory themselves than all those fancy new Sukhoi jobs combined...they've only been produced in small numbers so far.

[Wee-Bey]

The breakaway states plus Ukrainian neutrality is a net win for Putin in negotiations imo.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

For those that don’t know-

NATO = good guys.

Russia, China = wanks.