Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Lurkst]

2 hours ago, Snafu said:

 

Pete Solowka! I'd forgotten all about him.

[Thistle_do_nicely]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

There are degrees of obsolete, and a Western No fly zone is a really quick way of starting WW3.

Yeah. I think the old mg42 is still (or was until recently) in service in some militaries. Might be old tech, maybe with a few bits tinkered with over the years, but i wouldnt fancy having to run towards one. An older jet fighter with a competent pilot is better than nothing.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Given the slightly clownshoes Red Army performance so far, I think we can stop with the Cold War fantasys of Putin rolling through the Baltics and Poland on his way to Berlin.

[San Starko Rover]

2 minutes ago, tarapoa said:

A lot of the early wisdom was that Kyiv would be Russian-controlled by today (Sunday).

Maybe just delaying the inevitable ahead of the ante being upped in terms of the level of weapons deployed, but the fact it isn’t is a good effort so far from the Ukrainians in defending their capital and other major cities.

I think the Russians have seriously overestimated the number of Pro Russians in the Ukraine and underestimated the fight the Ukraine are giving them. They seem to think the government would run and the Army just lay down their arms. They could well have bitten off more than they can chew here as street to street fighting will see them suffer heavy loses with no guarantee they can achieve their aim. Even if they do they’re faced with a hostile population to police of 30+ milllion who are anti Russian. 

[williemillersmoustache]

13 minutes ago, bennett said:

 

Basically obsolete stuff, especially if coming up against the newer Russian fighters. 

We don't know what the Russians have had in the air and regardless the Mig 29 is a perfectly respectable aircraft, designed to go up against and in some ways superior to the F15. Particularly in the hands of experienced pilots, which one assumes the Ukrainian air force has.

Quote

Surely the western countries operating a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more useful. 

No, putting NATO forces in direct confrontation with Russians would be fucking mental. Exactly the sort of escalation we should avoid like the plague. Much better to just subtly and not so subtly equip and rearm the Ukrainians and help them attrition the Russians into seeking a ceasefire, de-escalation. Which, f**k my hat and call me Susan, is what they are doing.

Edited February 27, 2022 by williemillersmoustache

[bennett]

7 minutes ago, renton said:

There are degrees of obsolete, and a Western No fly zone is a really quick way of starting WW3.

Or stopping it by showing that the west are serious about halting Putins advance.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I think the Russians have seriously overestimated the number of Pro Russians in the Ukraine and underestimated the fight the Ukraine are giving them. They seem to think the government would run and the Army just lay down their arms. They could well have bitten off more than they can chew here as street to street fighting will see them suffer heavy loses with no guarantee they can achieve their aim. Even if they do they’re faced with a hostile population to police of 30+ milllion who are anti Russian. 

The fact that the Russians are even considering talks shows how wrong they've got it so far and that they may be looking to a face-saving exit strategy

[San Starko Rover]

1 minute ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

 

 

The fact that the Russians are even considering talks shows how wrong they've got it so far and that they may be looking to a face-saving exit strategy
 

 

Let’s hope so but how realistic will Putin’s demands be? We’ve seen his demands before the invasion which were totally ridiculous on other nations foreign and defence policies. I’m not really sure how he can come out of this with any win. Continue to invade - heavy losses and a hostile country to police while being isolated internationally, pull out - loss of face and serious damage to Russia’s future negotiations against NATO, EU etc.  

[Hillonearth]

21 minutes ago, bennett said:

 

 

Basically obsolete stuff, especially if coming up against the newer Russian fighters. 

 

Surely the western countries operating a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more useful.

Thing is, the Russians still have more MiG29s on inventory themselves than all those fancy new Sukhoi jobs combined...they've only been produced in small numbers so far.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

The breakaway states plus Ukrainian neutrality is a net win for Putin in negotiations imo.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

For those that don’t know-

NATO = good guys.

Russia, China = wanks.

[alta-pete]

13 minutes ago, San Starko Rover said:

I think the Russians have seriously overestimated the number of Pro Russians in the Ukraine and underestimated the fight the Ukraine are giving them. They seem to think the government would run and the Army just lay down their arms. They could well have bitten off more than they can chew here as street to street fighting will see them suffer heavy loses with no guarantee they can achieve their aim. Even if they do they’re faced with a hostile population to police of 30+ milllion who are anti Russian. 

The bit in bold is the big bit. What everyone has glossed over so far is that Ukraine is a huge country. 200k Russian (seemingly ambivalent) soldiers against a motivated resident guerilla force is going to find it, I think, *challenging*. 

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Just now, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

The breakaway states plus Ukrainian neutrality is a net win for Putin in negotiations imo.

Yeah, he can easily enough spin that as a glorious victory over the decadent west or somesuch pish with the aid of Russian state media. However if this drags on another week or two his options narrow massively. Economic sanctions will kick in, more and more countries, and indeed sports bodies will ostracise Russia and they could very well be left as complete international pariahs on every level, with a binfire of an economy. 

[Fullerene]

I wonder if Putin is still using the Soviet Union playbook, where a country like Hungary or Czechoslovakia could be invaded because the Kremlin decided to do so and the rest of the world just sat back helplessly.

Maybe he is waiting for his Warsaw Pact allies to show up.  (The Pact was dissolved in 1991).

[williemillersmoustache]

9 minutes ago, bennett said:

Or stopping it by showing that the west are serious about halting Putins advance.

Leaving to one side the fact that the Russians are already in the air over Ukraine and that to impose any no fly zone they would have to be "persuaded" to leave, it would mean the West operating potentially hundreds of aircraft right up to the border of actual Russia. 

You see how much hullabaloo and tallyho there is when a Bear or once or twice their Blackjacks or Backfires come within a couple of hundred miles of Shetland and Lossiemouth scrambles a pair of Typhoons and the BBC go all damp and patriotic about it? Imagine that x100 literally 0 miles from the territory with the second largest air force in the world and with the most recent air to air combat experience? 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The breakaway states plus Ukrainian neutrality is a net win for Putin in negotiations imo.

I did say in a previous post that would be a minimum for him - whether the Ukrainians would accept it is another matter - though they might accept some sort of fudge that effectively gives Russia those territories without actually handing them over.

[101]

1 hour ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

A possible exit strategy might be Ukraine reluctantly permanently ceding the eastern territories in order to get Russia tae f**k back over the borders, with the Russians demanding a guarantee that Ukraine ceases any overtures on Nato membership.  Hardly ideal though considering the current atrocities and still dependent on the whims of a psychopath.

Why not allow them to have a referendum if they vote to become independent fine. Then it allows Ukraine to join NATO and the EU as there is now another section buffer which is what Russia want despite their other bordering nations. 

Tongue firmly in cheek for the avoidance of doubt.

[John Lambies Doos]

Russians getting wailt here... Great to see, but worried that putin won't accept this humiliation.
Mon the [emoji1255]

[San Starko Rover]

7 minutes ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

The breakaway states plus Ukrainian neutrality is a net win for Putin in negotiations imo.

Not a hope in hell Ukraine will agree to neutrality after being attacked they’ll  be more determined than ever to join NATO and the EU, would you trust Russia again if you were Ukraine? Anyone who was on the fence in Ukraine over Russia or EU/NATO will now firmly be on the EU/NATO side. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by San Starko Rover

[John Lambies Doos]

Not a hope in hell Ukraine will agree to neutrality after being attacked they’ll  be more determined than ever to join NATO and the EU, would you trust Russia again if you were Ukraine? Anyone who was on the fence in Ukraine over Russia or EU/NATO will now firmly be on the EU/NATO side. 

Absolutely agree with this. Putin had no respect for the Minsk agreement. Ukraine will be pushing more towards the west now. Get into Nato, and Russia are snookered