Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Sweet Pete]

BBC reported today that according to the US department of defence they estimate total Russian military casualties thus far (killed, wounded and missing combined) as 100k. And the same for Ukrainian forces. If true that is 1917 / 1940 levels. War of attrition indeed.

[ICTChris]

The entirity of Mykolaiv Oblast has been liberated.  Russia had held a small part of the territory there but it's now been retaken.  Numerous settlements also being retaken by Ukrainian forces today.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with Kherson city.  Some Ukrainian units are within 10 miles of the city now.

[welshbairn]

There's talk of Russia setting up artillery on the East bank to bomb Ukrainian positions at will, but they'd surely be vulnerable to counter attack. I'm expecting an uneasy truce across the Dnipro over the Winter at least.   

[LongTimeLurker]

54 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The entirity of Mykolaiv Oblast has been liberated....

Seen that as well but doubt it's true because part of the left bank of the Dniepr that juts out into the Black Sea is in that oblast for some bizarre reason.

Knowing that is probably a sign that I have spent way too much time staring at maps of Ukraine since late February. It's easy to forget just how far the Russians got at the very start of the war. They had to go all the way up to Voznesensk because of how tenaciously the local Ukrainian forces held onto Mykolaiv and the bridge the Russians needed to try to reach Odesa and Transnistria.

[LongTimeLurker]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

There's talk of Russia setting up artillery on the East bank to bomb Ukrainian positions at will, but they'd surely be vulnerable to counter attack. I'm expecting an uneasy truce across the Dnipro over the Winter at least.   

Think it usually freezes for a bit and that's how the Red Army were able to get across during WWII.

[Leith Green]

Not sure this is the right place for it, but a wee bit of positivity. This girl has uprooted herself, left her family and friends and come across to Scotland. Good to see she is getting to continue working her way up the refs ladder.

 

 

[dorlomin]

59 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think it usually freezes for a bit and that's how the Red Army were able to get across during WWII.

Ukrainians have told me that it gets ice floes in it but it never really freezes. Certainly not that far south. Ukraine get cold in a central Europe kind of way, not in a Russia kind of way. Kherson is on the same latitude as Milan, though will get a lot colder due to the winds from being deeper in the continent. 

I am not sure how the cold will affect the war. British soldiers would get an arse kicking if you tried to argue its "too cold" even at -20C, but we are a professional army with all the proper gear. We have units that specialise in Arctic warfare. 

I have a hunch that the low key press releases from the likes of Finland, Germany, the UK etc on winter gear may give Ukraine units with a real edge. Its not going to be most of the army, but they may have enough to keep up pressure. Fighting in the cold is all about having the right equipment and the will. 

That said I expect winter to do more damage to the mobiks than Ukraine. Properly kitted out cold weather is a pain in the arse. If you are improperly kitted you can end up losing fingers, toes, seriously ill and worst case hypothermia. 

[welshbairn]

Not especially relevant given the surprising infectiveness of the Russian air force against manpads and the like, but otherwise an interesting comparison, the Winter War against Finland.

https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/david-vs-goliath/  

[LongTimeLurker]

See there's tweets now that the Ukrainians are entering Kherson city. Hope this old guy is still around to enjoy their arrival:

 

 

 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

There's talk of Russia setting up artillery on the East bank to bomb Ukrainian positions at will, but they'd surely be vulnerable to counter attack. I'm expecting an uneasy truce across the Dnipro over the Winter at least.   

If the Russians have any competent military leaders left in the area, they would have surveyed and mapped, complete with geo-coordinates, all the possible observation positions on the west bank of the Dnipro, along with any locations that seem potentially useful to the Ukrainians. Then you set your artillery up in a pre-mapped position, shooting at known coordinates, and you can drop a few round directly into the other chaps coffee cups. Of course, then you are vulnerable to counter-battery fire.

[Silvio Tattiescone]

It's not all one-way

 

https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-is-outfoxing-ukrainian-warplanes-with-its-foxhounds-mig-31/

 

Quote

Russia Is ‘Outfoxing’ Ukrainian Warplanes With Its Foxhounds

 

[ICTChris]

Reports on Russian channels that Ukraine are shelling the crossing points tonight.

[ICTChris]

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

If genuine this suggests the Russians don't expect to be the ones repairing the bridge across the Dniepr at Kherson in future:

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[doulikefish]

27 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

If genuine this suggests the Russians don't expect to be the ones repairing the bridge across the Dniepr at Kherson in future:

 

Also suggests they don't think they will be back soon and are more worried about destroying/covering any retreating/advancing routes for them and Ukraine forces 

[ICTChris]

Interesting quote from the Wagner adjacent Grey Zone Telegram channel, calling out their own sides cope about fighting all of NATO.

 

 

 

[madmitch]

20 hours ago, Sweet Pete said:

BBC reported today that according to the US department of defence they estimate total Russian military casualties thus far (killed, wounded and missing combined) as 100k. And the same for Ukrainian forces. If true that is 1917 / 1940 levels. War of attrition indeed.

 Not yet... 1939–1940 inflicted devastating losses on the Red Army, including the deaths of at least 126,875 soldiers and the wounding of 264,908. That was solely from the war with Finland.

[ICTChris]

 

 

[renton]

 

 

 

[Bairnardo]

I cant follow the maps.... What's left I terms of ousting Russia from Ukranian soil?