Russian invasion of Ukraine

[vikingTON]

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

On the China and "Taiwan / Ukraine" thing (which seems like a lazy comparison). There's the small issue of Russia actively backing and arming secessionists in Donetsk and Luhansk. I can't imagine that's the sort of thing China really wants to see (IMUAAO (in my uninformed armchair analyst opinion)).

The things I've read seem to suggest that China will remain as "neutral" as they can. 

That depends on whether China views Russia's take on Ukraine's right to exist as equivalent (or at least useful cover) for China's own view of Taiwan - supported incidentally by US policy since Nixon's visit to Beijing. The ends rather than the means are the most important thing for both powers.

Studied neutrality in the face of global opporobium and a Western sanctions threat is de facto a benevolent stance towards Russia anyway. There's no need to express public support. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by vikingTON

[Guest Jedi]

Thinking of the longer term consequences of this, it will create some form of destabilisation across Europe for some time to come.(which is probably Putin's overall aim in any case).

Once they have destroyed Ukraine's military capacity, and probably put a puppet leader in place, continued guerrilla warfare by Ukrainians looks guaranteed, especially if Russia holds onto the Donbas and Luhansk areas.

Meanwhile, Europe continues to be beholden to Russian energy, particularly gas, with sanctions against their financial money laundering being like a wasp stinging an elephant. Russia in prime position to push up energy prices across Europe, the EU having no choice but to pay them, all the time continuing to worry about the ongoing guerrilla war on their doorstep, and wondering where Mad Vlad will go next.

When you think about the instability which was created in the Middle East by the invasion of Iraq...that rumbled on for about 20 years and is still going.

And all this looks like a best case scenario now, by preventing all out war.

If only, the EU in particular, as well as America had stood up to the Fascist years ago, before they were in the grip of Russian oil and gas, and the Tories didn't need oligarchs funding their party.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Jedi

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, Florentine_Pogen said:

We're gonna need bigger graph paper.................................

P.S. Missed out assassinating all the leaders of Chechnya capable of negotiation and turning it into rubble run by a psycho stooge. Lovely new shiny buildings though!

Edited February 26, 2022 by welshbairn

[vikingTON]

31 minutes ago, Jedi said:

 

If only, the EU in particular, as well as America had stood up to the Fascist years ago, before they were in the grip of Russian oil and gas, and the Tories didn't need oligarchs funding their party.

The period before the EU and America needed Russia was the 1990s, when NATO was arrogantly expanding eastwards over the corpse of the Soviet Union and Boris Yeltsin was too busy enjoying happy hour in the Kremlin to take notice. 

Russia's sphere of influence in Europe is smaller now than it has ever been since Catherine the Great in the 18th century. Putin's rise to power has been driven in part by that desire to restore Russia's historic stomping ground. 

It was the West's folly of maintaining NATO after the Soviet Union's demise and incorporating nearly every anti-Russian state from the former eastern bloc into it that has made a revisionist Russian state inevitable. Magically removing Putin from the scene might change some decisions but won't change the overall geopolitical outlook from Moscow's point of view.

Edited February 26, 2022 by vikingTON

[alta-pete]

I’m going to go off on a hot take. I don’t see Russia winning this one in the near/medium term. 

[RossBFaeDundee]

I wonder if the reason this feels so arbitrary is because it's a religious crusade for the notably devout Putin, hence the importance to bring Kyiv back into the Russian sphere. Any campaign driven by passion, specifically religious passion, terrifies me as there's really no way to quell it, but it might explain the irrational and sloppy campaign that seems to now be unfolding.

In short, religion is fucking stupid.

[Clown Job]

The one thing that’s surprised me seeing a lot of the combat footage is just how loud everything is 

 

[vikingTON]

13 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

I’m going to go off on a hot take. I don’t see Russia winning this one in the near/medium term. 

A stalemate to allow meaningful mediation to take place is the only sane way out, so a short-term denial of victory is a good thing. 

A failure in war historically gives the temptation to escalate to extremely dangerous levels though. I don't see them just scuttling back to square one from this - it is already too far gone. 

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

3 minutes ago, Clown Job said:

The one thing that’s surprised me seeing a lot of the combat footage is just how loud everything is 

 

What?

[vikingTON]

14 minutes ago, RossBFaeDundee said:

I wonder if the reason this feels so arbitrary is because it's a religious crusade for the notably devout Putin, hence the importance to bring Kyiv back into the Russian sphere. Any campaign driven by passion, specifically religious passion, terrifies me as there's really no way to quell it, but it might explain the irrational and sloppy campaign that seems to now be unfolding.

In short, religion is fucking stupid.

It's not a religious crusade because the vast majority of religious Ukrainians are eastern Orthodox just like religious Russians, including Putin. And both countries are systematically secularised states after 70 years of communist rule. 

The importance of Kiev to Putin has far less to do with some religious relics than its role in the foundation of the culture of the Rus - read as 'Russian civilisation'. His belief is that Russians and Ukrainians are a single people - religion is irrelevant in his multiple public discussions of this issue. There's also a shit-ton of strategic and resource-based concerns, but chauvinistic nationalism is the only rallying call needed. 

Of all the conflicts that could be pinned on religion, I don't think this is in the top 99%.

Edited February 26, 2022 by vikingTON

[Lyle Lanley]

 

[Billy Jean King]

The one thing that’s surprised me seeing a lot of the combat footage is just how loud everything is 
 

Flashes bright too ???

[SlipperyP]

4 hours ago, Clown Job said:

The one thing that’s surprised me seeing a lot of the combat footage is just how loud everything is 

 

^^^ Bought a 42 Inch Lcd TV for £50

[LongTimeLurker]

5 hours ago, alta-pete said:

I’m going to go off on a hot take. I don’t see Russia winning this one in the near/medium term. 

Ukraine's ability to resist is exceeding expectations so far. If that can be sustained I think the big thing to watch is the demonstrations in Moscow and how effectively Putin can keep a lid on internal dissent. 

[Oystercatcher]

8 hours ago, Hillonearth said:

there seemed to be a concerted effort to traumatise children in the early 80s.

As a child of the 70s and early 80s myself I completely concur.

They used to test the air raid signal at hairmyers near my home in the early 80s.

I remember out walking our dog one morning and it went off. I was about 20 mins from my house, terrifying.

[Mark Connolly]

UN Security Council: You’re being bad, stop being bad.

Russia: No, we’re not, and no, we won’t.

UNSC: Well, we’ve done what we can for now

[renton]

8 minutes ago, Oystercatcher said:

As a child of the 70s and early 80s myself I completely concur.

They used to test the air raid signal at hairmyers near my home in the early 80s.

I remember out walking our dog one morning and it went off. I was about 20 mins from my house, terrifying.

Yeah, I was a wee kid at the tail end of the cold War, I remember hearing the air raid test visiting my grandparents in Dysart on a Sunday. Was part of my nightmares for years.

Edited February 26, 2022 by renton

[djchapsticks]

15 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Ukraine's ability to resist is exceeding expectations so far. If that can be sustained I think the big thing to watch is the demonstrations in Moscow and how effectively Putin can keep a lid on internal dissent. 

The demonstrations and protests seem to be gathering pace at an alarming rate for the Russian government. 

1800 arrests so far is seemingly not the deterrent that they were hoping it would be. The police cannot huckle everyone off and folk realise this.

NATO and UN have so far proven themselves as useful a deterrent as a chocolate fireguard. The major hope aside from negotiation, is increased action of the Russian people making those in government, many of whom we have been told are strongly against this course of action but too afraid to act, rise up and dislodge the regime from within.

Edited February 26, 2022 by djchapsticks

[Melanius Mullarkey]

4 hours ago, Lyle Lanley said:

 

it’s all getting a bit Bruce Willis/Arnie.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

A stalemate to allow meaningful mediation to take place is the only sane way out, so a short-term denial of victory is a good thing. 
A failure in war historically gives the temptation to escalate to extremely dangerous levels though. I don't see them just scuttling back to square one from this - it is already too far gone. 

If they don't get their initial objectives - which seems to be taking key towns and cities then you would think that taking out Ukrainian military installations like airfields, army bases etc to defang them would be the next route.

Ceasefire to follow and negotiating - with Russia keeping Donbas (and Crimea) and Ukraine committed to neutrality.

I think that's the minimum that Putin would accept.